人口规模、资源禀赋与经济增长实证分析

虽然在学界人口规模假说和资源诅咒假说至今还没有取得共识,但在当今人口危机和资源危机的大背景下,重新审视人口规模与资源禀赋在经济增长中的作用显得尤为紧迫。我国是否存在人口规模假说和资源诅咒假说?本文构建了新兴古典经济学模型和面板数据模型,得出以下结论:两种假说在中国根本不存在;无论人口规模或资源禀赋状况如何,不同地区均可通过交易效率传导机制实现经济增长。具体来说,不同人口规模或资源禀赋的地区可以积极探索制度改革,提高社会分工水平,大幅改善交易效率,诱导不同类型的社会实验和组织创新,就有可能创造出新的生产力,实现区域经济增长。这些结论一定程度上解决了学界存在的争论,具有重要的理论价值。在政策层面上,由于人口规模、资源禀赋仅是经济增长的两种要素,交易效率才是经济增长的支撑点和动力源,所以政府应该更加重视如何扩大市场容量、促进分工深化和提高交易效率。     

大直径变截面钢管复合桩竖向承载性能研究∗

为了研究大直径变截面钢管复合桩竖向承载性能,选取鱼山大桥37#桩开展了自平衡试桩试验,并利用数值模拟软件ABAQUS对实际工况进行模拟,在验证了数值模型正确性的基础上对模型施加桩顶竖向荷载,分析了其桩身轴力与钢管应力传递规律,并通过改变变截面位置参数建立不同工况模型,分析了变截面位置对桩基竖向承载性能的影响。研究结果表明:自平衡试桩试验Q-s曲线没有突变较为平缓,经计算该桩单桩承载力为120 056kN,为单桩设计桩顶最大竖向荷载38 212 kN的3.14倍,桩基足够安全;数值模拟结果与实测较为吻合,数值模拟方法以及参数选取得当;变截面位置以上桩身轴力减小较缓,变截面处桩身轴力存在突变,变截面以下桩身轴力减小较快,桩端有端阻力存在,钢管处于弹性变形阶段并未屈服;变截面位置以上桩段越长桩基抵抗竖向变形能力越强,但生产实际中应考虑材料用量以达到最优。     

PM2.5通过NF-κB/NLRP3途径促进金黄色葡萄球菌肺炎的研究

细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))引发的呼吸系统疾病近年来成为公众关注焦点。为探究PM_(2.5)在金黄色葡萄球菌肺炎中产生的效应及其相关分子机制,将Balb/c小鼠随机分成6组:A.生理盐水对照,B. 5 mg·kg~(-1)PM_(2.5),C.肺炎模型,D.肺炎模型+0.05 mg·kg~(-1)PM_(2.5),E.肺炎模型+0.5 mg·kg~(-1)PM_(2.5),F.肺炎模型+5 mg·kg~(-1)PM_(2.5),进行为期7 d的PM_(2.5)气道滴注暴露后,用细菌滴鼻构建金黄色葡萄球菌肺炎模型。结果发现,PM_(2.5)暴露造成了小鼠肺部损伤并促进了金黄色葡萄球菌肺炎,并随着PM_(2.5)浓度的升高愈发显著,体现为小鼠肺部出现了更显著的气道重塑、炎症细胞浸润现象,肺纤维化程度加深。其分子机制是PM_(2.5)首先引发小鼠肺部产生氧化应激,促进核因子κB(NF-κB)信号通路的激活,进而介导炎症小体NLRP3的活化,导致白细胞介素-1β(IL-1β)、肿瘤坏死因子-α(TNF-α)表达升高,最终恶化了金黄色葡萄球菌肺炎。     

Vehicular volatile organic compounds losses due to refueling and diurnal process in China: 2010–2050

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are crucial to control air pollution in major Chinese cities since VOCs are the dominant factor influencing ambient ozone level, and also an important precursor of secondary organic aerosols. Vehicular evaporative emissions have become a major and growing source of VOC emissions in China. This study consists of lab tests, technology evaluation, emissions modeling, policy projections and cost-benefit analysis to draw a roadmap for China for controlling vehicular evaporative emissions. The analysis suggests that evaporative VOC emissions from China's light-duty gasoline vehicles were approximately 185,000 ton in 2010 and would peak at 1,200,000 ton in 2040 without control. The current control strategy implemented in China, as shown in business as usual (BAU) scenario, will barely reduce the long-term growth in emissions. Even if Stage II gasoline station vapor control policies were extended national wide (BAU + extended Stage II), there would still be over 400,000 ton fuel loss in 2050. In contrast, the implementation of on-board refueling vapor recovery (ORVR) on new cars could reduce 97.5% of evaporative VOCs by 2050 (BAU + ORVR/BAU + delayed ORVR). According to the results, a combined Stage II and ORVR program is a comprehensive solution that provides both short-term and long-term benefits. The net cost to achieve the optimal total evaporative VOC control is approximately 62 billion CNY in 2025 and 149 billion CNY in 2050.     

Occurrence of phthalate esters in water and sediment of urban lakes in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, South China

Extensive use of phthalate esters (PAEs) in both industrial processes and consumer products has resulted in the ubiquitous presence of these chemicals in the environment. This study reports the first data on the concentrations of 16 phthalate esters (PAEs) in water and sediments of the urban lakes in Guangzhou City. PAEs were detected in all samples analyzed, mainly originating from urban stormwater runoff, atmospheric deposition, as well as untreated discharge of industrial wastewater and municipal sewage. The Sigma(16)PAEs concentrations in water and sediments ranged from 1.69 to 4.72 microg L(-1) and 2.27 to 74.94 microg g(-1)-dry weight (dw), with the mean concentrations of 2.91 microg L(-1) and 20.85 microg g(-1)-dw, respectively, which indicates that sediment is a significant sink for PAEs. Variability of the Sigma 16PAEs concentrations in water and sediment in the urban lakes was almost consistent. The spatial distribution of PAEs was site-specific. Of the 16 PAEs, DMP, DEP, DnBP, DiBP, DMPP, and DEHP were present in all water and sediment samples. DnBP was abundant in water (53.0-81.2%), while no single dominant congener was found in sediments. The abundances of DiBP were similar to those of DEHP, and DiBP and DEHP collectively accounted for 77.2-97.6% of the Sigma 16PAEs concentrations. Congener specific analysis confirmed that DnBP was a predictive indicator for the dissolved summation operator16 PAEs concentration (correlation coefficient r=0.968, p<0.01), and that DiBP was a predictive indicator for the sediment summation operator16 PAEs concentration (r=0.975, p<0.01). As compared to the results for other studies, the urban lakes of Guangzhou were moderately polluted by PAEs.     

平原地区复合土地利用系统中氮磷流失敏感区界定——以浙江大学华家池校区为例

为正确识别平原地区复合土地利用系统中氮磷流失敏感区,利用美国农业部水土保持局设计的水文模型中的CN值描述地表状况,反映不同土地利用条件下下垫面对土壤氮、磷流失的影响;运用等标污染负荷计算方法评估不同类型污染源强度;建立了复合土地利用系统中土壤氮、磷流失敏感区的综合指数评价体系.构建的氮、磷流失评价方法在浙江大学华家池校区的应用评价结果表明,氮磷流失敏感性高的区块主要为研究区内的居民区、畜牧场和一些施肥量大的种植区,而敏感性最低的区块集中在具有良好植被覆盖的绿化区.高的污染源和高的迁移因子叠加区构成了高的流失敏感区.     

一株高效MC—RR降解菌的分离鉴定及其降解特性

为了得到一株具有降解微囊藻毒素一RR（MC—RR）特性的产芽孢菌株,采用加热富集芽孢菌的方法,从太湖分离到一株MC．RR降解菌CMl,该菌对MC—RR具有强烈的降解特性。通过形态学特征、生理生化特征及16SrDNA序列分析鉴定该菌株属于耐硼赖氨酸芽孢杆菌（Lysinibacillusb oronitolerans）。通过研究温度和pH值对菌株CMl降解MC—RR能力的影响,发现菌株CMl在60h将MC—RR由12．77μg／mL降解到1．67μg／mL,降解率达86．90％,最适降解温度为37℃,最适pH值为7．0。CMl菌株的胞外物质和胞内物质均能降解MC—RR,但胞内物质具有更强烈的降解特性,12h可以将7．27μg／mL的MC-RR完全降解。为丰富MC-RR降解菌纯菌种研究以及在去除水体中MC—RR应用研究方面提供了理论基础。     

广西1990-2002年生态足迹动态分析

生态足迹是一种评估区域可持续发展程度和量度维持人类的自然资源消费量的帐户工具。本文以广西为例，结广西1990、1995、2002年三个时期的生态足迹及生态承载力进行计算和分析，结果表明，12年以来，广西人均生态足迹和生态赤字均呈快速增长态势，人均生态足迹从1990年的为0.9908hm^2增加至2002年的1.3369hm^2；人均生态足迹赤字从1990年的0.5821hm^2增加至0.9521hm^2。这表明人类对自然资源的利用已经超过了生态系统的承载能力，区域生态经济系统处于人类过度开发利用的重压之下，必须引起重视。     

Transfer of metals from soil to vegetables in an area near a smelter in Nanning, China

A field survey was conducted to investigate the metal contamination in soils and vegetables, and to evaluate the possible health risks to local population through foodchain transfer near a smelter in Nanning, southern China. Contamination levels in soils and vegetables with cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu) were measured, and transfer factors (TF) from soils to vegetable plants and its health risk (risk index, RI) were calculated accordingly. Results showed that both soils and vegetables from villages 1 and 2 (V1 and V2, 1500 m and 500 m from the smelter) were heavily contaminated, compared to a village 50 km from the smelter. Geometric mean of Cd and Pb concentrations in vegetables for V1 and V2, respectively, were 0.15 and 0.24 mg Cd kg(-1) and 0.45 and 0.38 mg Pb kg(-1) (on fresh weight basis). Oral intake of Cd and Pb through vegetables poses high health risk to local residents. Risk indices for V1 and V2, respectively, were 3.87 and 7.42 for Cd, and 1.44 and 13.5 for Pb. The complexity of metal contamination and their health risks are also discussed.     

低C/N比水产养殖废水生物脱氮实验研究

随着短程硝化-反硝化理论研究的发展,在低C/N比条件下,实现污水的生物脱氮处理已成为可能。为此,设计了水产养殖用水的三级生物膜短程硝化-反硝化处理工艺,并对该工艺在去除模拟水产养殖废水主要污染物的作用进行了初步研究。研究结果表明,在进水pH值7.5~8.5,温度为28~32℃,溶解氧为0.5~1 mg/L,游离氨浓度为5~10 mg/L的条件下,模拟废水的COD、NH4+-N和TN的平均去除率分别达到94.4%、91.6%和70.1%;并且低C/N比对出水氨氮NH4+-N的去除率影响不大,NO2--N的平均浓度控制在5.2 mg/L以下,低于鱼类的耐受浓度。表明该短程硝化-反硝化工艺设计,可用于低C/N比水产养殖废水主要污染物的生物处理,尤其是可消除NO2--N对水产养殖的潜在威胁,基本达到养鱼回用标准。