Intervention analysis is a relatively new branch of time series analysis. The power of this technique, which gives the probability that changes in mean level can be distinguished from natural data variability, is quite sensitive to the way the data are collected. The principal independent variables influenced by the data collection design are overall sample size, sampling frequency, and the relative length of record before the occurrence of the event (intervention) that is postulated to have caused a change in mean process level.For three of the four models investigated, data should be collected so that the post-intervention record is substantially longer than the pre-intervention record. This is in conflict with the intuitive approach, which would be to collect equal amounts of data before and after the intervention. The threshold (minimum) level of change that can be detected is quite high unless sample sizes of at least 50 and preferably 100 are available; this minimum level is dependent on the complexity of the model required to describe the response of the process mean to the intervention. More complex models tend to require larger sample sizes for the same threshold detectable change level.Uniformity of sampling frequency is a key consideration. Environmental data collection programs have not historically been oriented toward data analysis using time series techniques, thus eliminating a potentially powerful tool from use in many environmental assessment applications. 相似文献
Continuing evidence of the feminising effects of xenoestrogens on a range of wildlife species increases the need to assess the human health risk of these estrogen mimics. We have estimated the exposure of New Zealand males, females and young men to a range of naturally occurring and synthetic xenoestrogens found in food. Only estrogenic compounds that act by interaction with the estrogen receptor have been included. Theoretical plasma estrogen activity levels were derived from estrogen exposure estimates and estrogenic potency data. Theoretical plasma levels were compared with published data for specific xenoestrogens. There was surprisingly close agreement. Xenoestrogenicity from dietary intake was almost equally attributed to naturally occurring and synthetic xenoestrogens. Relative contributions for a male, for example were isoflavones (genistein and daidzein) (36%) and bisphenol A (34%) with smaller contributions from alkyl phenols (18%) and the flavonoids (phloretin and kaempferol) (12%). It is suggested that dietary xenoestrogens might have a pharmacological effect on New Zealand males and postmenopausal women, but are unlikely to be significant for pre-menopausal women. 相似文献
This paper addresses the compatibility of World Bank policies towards population growth, development and biodiversity in the Third World. The World Bank has been central to the design and implementation of the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the remit of which includes the conservation of global biodiversity. However, the Bank's influence over the facility has in itself created controversy which may undermine its effectiveness. More significantly, the Bank's commitment to the GEF is subverted by its policies in other social and economic sectors. The World Bank, together with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), directs the structural adjustment of Third World economies through economic deregulation and privatization. This approach exacerbates inequalities and further empowers large landowners who may then displace tenant farmers and claim exclusive rights to former common land. Thus, biodiversity loss occurs as large landowners reorientate the land use towards the production of export goods and dispossessed farmers invade marginal land. Population growth influences biodiversity loss through its contribution to agricultural intensification and the settlement of marginal land. The World Bank encourages this trend through its non-committal approach to population control, but more especially through structural adjustment's positive effect on fertility. 相似文献
This paper appraises, in the context of the current debate concerning national parks for Scotland, factors that may have contributed to the achievement of national park purposes in England and Wales. Voluntary support, presumptions and resources are seen as crucial to the achievement of those purposes; while the few extra powers available to the national park authorities and the plan making process are seen to be of some importance. In contrast, it is argued that the much‐debated nature of the administrative authority has had little effect on the extent to which park purposes are achieved. 相似文献
The Countryside Commission's report, “A Better Future for the Uplands”, contains recommendations that seek a better balance between conservation and farming and conservation and forestry: recommendations that concern the uplands as landscape. This paper considers the recommendations under three headings — those which seek to reduce conflict, those which seek to reinforce the voluntary approach to conflict resolution, and those which seek to extend control. The paper concludes with a consideration of the likely effectiveness of the measures proposed. 相似文献
The general principles of scale and coarse and fine filters have been widely accepted, but management agencies and industry are still grappling with the question of what to monitor to detect changes in forest biodiversity following forest management. Part of this problem can be attributed to the lack of focused questions for monitoring including absence of null models and predicted effects, a certain level of disconnect between research and management, and recognition that monitoring can be designed as a research question. Considerable research from the past decade has not been adequately synthesized to answer important questions, such as which species or forest attributes might be the best indicators of change. A disproportionate research emphasis has been placed on community ecology, and mostly on a few groups of organisms including arthropods, amphibians, migratory songbirds, and small mammals, while other species, including soil organisms, lichens, bats, raptors, some carnivores, and larger mammals remain less well-known. In most studies of community ecology, the question of what is the importance, if any, of the regularly observed subtle changes in community structures, and causes of observed changes is usually not answered. Hence, our ability to deal with questions of persistence is limited, and demographic research on regionally--defined key species (such as species linked to processes, species whose persistence may be affected, species with large home ranges, species already selected as indicators, and rare and threatened species) is urgently needed. Monitoring programs need to be designed to enable managers to respond to unexpected changes caused by forest management. To do this, management agencies need to articulate null models for monitoring that predict effects, focus fine--scale monitoring on key species (defined by local and regional research) in key habitats (rare, declining, important) across landscapes, and have a protocol in place to adapt management strategies to changes observed. Finally, agencies must have some way to determine and define when a significant change has occurred and to predict the persistence of species; this too should flow from a well--designed null model. 相似文献
ABSTRACT: Watersheds are widely accepted as a useful geography for organizing natural resource management in Australia and the United States. It is assumed that effective action needs to be underpinned by an understanding of the interactions between people and the environment. While there has been some social research as part of watershed planning, there have been few attempts to integrate socio‐economic and biophysical data to improve the efficacy of watershed management. This paper explores that topic. With limited resources for social research, watershed partners in Australia chose to focus on gathering spatially referenced socio‐economic data using a mail survey to private landholders that would enable them to identify and refine priority issues, develop and improve communication with private landholders, choose policy options to accomplish watershed targets, and evaluate the achievement of intermediate watershed plan objectives. Experience with seven large watershed projects provides considerable insight about the needs of watershed planners, how to effectively engage them, and how to collect and integrate social data as part of watershed management. 相似文献