COMPARISON OF TWO AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY STREAM FLOW GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two autoregressive models for monthly stream flow generation are compared based on the reproduction of the historical record in terms of several important statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, skewness coefficient, correlation coefficient, and the reservoir storage components. In the comparison, both theoretical considerations and practical applications are employed to evaluate the performance of each model.     

Spore inhibition-based enzyme substrate assay for monitoring of aflatoxin M1 in milk

A spore germination-based concept and its transformation into a field level prototype for monitoring aflatoxin M₁ (AFM₁) in milk was developed. Initially, 15 strains of Bacillus spp. procured from different culture collection were screened for AFM₁ sensitivity using spot assay and marker strain showing inhibition at 0.5 ppb was selected based upon maximum zone of inhibition. The selected strain B. megaterium 2949 was further screened for different enzymes activities and subsequently its spores were produced to an extent of 73.13% ± 3.197% in newly developed sporulation medium containing beef extract (0.0075% ± 0.0004%), yeast extract (0.015% ± 0.001%), peptone (0.0375% ± 0.0016%), and sodium chloride (0.0375% ± 0.0018%). A spore germination-based concept/ assay was optimized by immobilizing spores in eppendorf with pretreated milk (80°C/15 min) containing germinant and chromogenic substrate followed by incubation at 37°C. The appearance of sky blue color within real time of 45 min indicated spores germination and release of specific marker enzyme such as acetyl esterase and its specific action on chromogenic substrate which demonstrates absence of AFM₁ in milk. However, if there was no color change, presence of AFM₁ at 0.5 ppb MRL was denoted by Codex. The developed concept on AFM₁ detection was validated and a correlation of 0.97 was established with AOAC approved Charm 6602 and ELISA at Codex MRL with minimal false positive and negative results. The cost effective test has potential application in dairy farms, manufacturing, and R&D units for routine monitoring of AFM₁ in milk.     

Risk analysis of an LPG storage facility in India

An assignment to carry out a hazard study and risk analysis of a gas processing complex has been described briefly, wherein well known procedures have been used to identify and investigate potential hazards. A method of avoiding unintentional overfilling of LPG storage tanks has been recommended, which utilizes the existing level control instruments.     

Potential environmental impact of dissolution of raw phosphate in sea water of the Gulf of Aqaba

Dissolution of raw phosphate (apatite) in sea water of the Gulf of Aqaba was investigated through lab incubation experiments. Three types from three different sources (Al-Hasa, Al-Abyad and Esh-Shydiya) have been used for these experiments. Impact of quantity, grain size, and source (type) of raw phosphate on dissolution rate were studied. Statistical analysis shows significant differences between the results obtained from comparing each two weights; as weight of apatite increased, dissolved inorganic phosphate-phosphorus (DIP) and fluoride in sea water solution increased. The differences between the dissolution rates of raw phosphate from the three sites were not significant while the differences between the different grain size fractions were significant. Dissolution rates were inversely related to particle size. Using a worst-case scenario, a conservative estimate of the maximum increase in DIP in seawater of the Gulf of Aqaba due to the apatite particles lost to the sea during ship loading resulted in DIP concentrations of 0.03 μM per year. As the residence time of the water in the Gulf of Aqaba is about one year, the DIP concentration will not increase by more than 0.03 μM under the estimated annual quantity of exported phosphate. Fluoride will not increase by more than 0.03 mg/l under the same conditions.     

Validation of QuEChERS-based method for determination of flusilazole residues in grape by high-performance liquid chromatography with photodiode array detector

A high-performance liquid chromatography with photodiode array detector analytical method was developed to determine the residue levels of flusilazole in grape and investigate the dissipation pattern and safety. The results showed that the mean recoveries were in the range of 86%–90%. Limits of detection and quantification were 0.008 and 0.02 mg/kg, respectively. The residue levels of flusilazole were best described by first-order rate kinetics and with half-lives ranging from 4.2 days (recommended dose) to 4.6 days (double the recommended dose). In conclusion, flusilazole at the recommended or even at double the recommended doses does not pose any apparent hazards to consumers.