A statistical approach to field measurements of the chemical evolution of cold (<0°C) snow cover

Two statistical methods for the analysis of data on the evolution of the chemical composition of cold snow (<0°C) in the field (Lac Laflamme, Quebec) were compared. The methods used on the data were regression analysis (One sample per sampling date over a long cold period) and ANOVA (replicate samples on a restricted number of sampling dates over shorter periods). The relative power of the tests to determine the detectable amplitude of chemical changes was derived from the theoretical power of the tests under comparable conditions of sampling (number of observations) and from the estimated error variances of the measured data.The results of the study on the evolution of sulfates (SO₄) concentrations in discretely identified snow strate clearly showed that for six of the eight strata, significant losses of SO₄ occurred in snow during cold periods. The relative amplitude of the significant losses varied between 1% per day and 4% per day depending on the initial concentrations in the snow and the prevailing meteorological conditions.The analysis of the data also demonstrated that for the same number of samples, the regression analysis is more efficient in detecting the chemical changes in snow than the alternative ANOVA method. The use of this information to plan sampling programs of cold snow under both field and laboratory conditions is discussed.     

Global climate change in the instrumental period

The instrumental period of climate history began in the 18th century with the commencement of routine weather observations at fixed sites. Estimates of global-mean climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) were not possible, however, until the establishment of extensive observing networks midway through the 19th century. This paper reviews our knowledge of global climate change in the instrumental period. Time series of global-mean temperature and precipitation are examined and a comparison is made between two independent 30-year climatologies: 1931-1960 and 1961-1990. Examples are also provided of regional-scale climate changes. Such assessments are important for two reasons. First, they establish the variability of climate on the time-scale of decades, time-scales upon which it is reasonable to plan economic and socio-political activities. Second, and more specifically, they enable us to quantify the magnitude of global-mean climate change which has occurred over this period. Such detailed diagnostic climate information is a necessary, although not sufficient, prerequisite for the detection of global-scale warming which may have occurred due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Some attention is given to explanations of the observed changes in global-mean climate.     

Landscape Equivalency Analysis: Methodology for Estimating Spatially Explicit Biodiversity Credits

We propose a biodiversity credit system for trading endangered species habitat designed to minimize and reverse the negative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation, the leading cause of species endangerment in the United States. Given the increasing demand for land, approaches that explicitly balance economic goals against conservation goals are required. The Endangered Species Act balances these conflicts based on the cost to replace habitat. Conservation banking is a means to manage this balance, and we argue for its use to mitigate the effects of habitat fragmentation. Mitigating the effects of land development on biodiversity requires decisions that recognize regional ecological effects resulting from local economic decisions. We propose Landscape Equivalency Analysis (LEA), a landscape-scale approach similar to HEA, as an accounting system to calculate conservation banking credits so that habitat trades do not exacerbate regional ecological effects of local decisions. Credits purchased by public agencies or NGOs for purposes other than mitigating a take create a net investment in natural capital leading to habitat defragmentation. Credits calculated by LEA use metapopulation genetic theory to estimate sustainability criteria against which all trades are judged. The approach is rooted in well-accepted ecological, evolutionary, and economic theory, which helps compensate for the degree of uncertainty regarding the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on endangered species. LEA requires application of greater scientific rigor than typically applied to endangered species management on private lands but provides an objective, conceptually sound basis for achieving the often conflicting goals of economic efficiency and long-term ecological sustainability.     

An assessment of household willingness to pay for curbside recycling: a comparison of payment card and referendum approaches

Curbside recycling is a tool that communities use to reduce the need for landfill space. This study provides contingent valuation estimates of household willingness to pay (WTP) to continue a curbside recycling program in the face of budget cuts. Comparisons of two forms of the contingent valuation method (CVM) are provided: a single bounded referendum and a payment card. Neither approach emerges as unambiguously superior. Response rates were virtually identical. Both approaches show that support for curbside recycling is highly sensitive to price. Regression results from the payment card provided a more thorough identification of socio-demographic variables associated with WTP than the referendum, but the explanatory power of the two regressions did not differ significantly. The referendum estimates of mean WTP exceed those from the payment card, although the disparities are less than those typically reported in the CVM literature. Local policy makers cited the CVM results as influencing their decisions regarding funding options for the future of the program, and seemed to appreciate the fact that the two approaches provided a fairly narrow range of estimates of WTP. In an era when more of the burden of financing of environmental programs is being shifted to the local level, use of CVM to estimate the WTP of consumers for highly disaggregated goods and services designed to achieve environmental improvement will likely become more relevant to local decision makers who are interested in understanding their constituents' views.     

Phytoremediation of landfill leachate

Leachate emissions from landfill sites are of concern, primarily due to their toxic impact when released unchecked into the environment, and the potential for landfill sites to generate leachate for many hundreds of years following closure. Consequently, economically and environmentally sustainable disposal options are a priority in waste management. One potential option is the use of soil-plant based remediation schemes. In many cases, using either trees (including short rotation coppice) or grassland, phytoremediation of leachate has been successful. However, there are a significant number of examples where phytoremediation has failed. Typically, this failure can be ascribed to excessive leachate application and poor management due to a fundamental lack of understanding of the plant-soil system. On balance, with careful management, phytoremediation can be viewed as a sustainable, cost effective and environmentally sound option which is capable of treating 250m(3)ha(-1)yr(-1). However, these schemes have a requirement for large land areas and must be capable of responding to changes in leachate quality and quantity, problems of scheme establishment and maintenance, continual environmental monitoring and seasonal patterns of plant growth. Although the fundamental underpinning science is well understood, further work is required to create long-term predictive remediation models, full environmental impact assessments, a complete life-cycle analysis and economic analyses for a wide range of landfill scenarios.     

Soil microbial and faunal community responses to bt maize and insecticide in two soils

The effects of maize (Zea mays L.), genetically modified to express the Cry1Ab protein (Bt), and an insecticide on soil microbial and faunal communities were assessed in a glasshouse experiment. Soil for the experiment was taken from field sites where the same maize cultivars were grown to allow comparison between results under glasshouse conditions with those from field trials. Plants were grown in contrasting sandy loam and clay loam soils, half were sprayed with a pyrethroid insecticide (deltamethrin) and soil samples taken at the five-leaf stage, flowering, and maturity. The main effect on all measured parameters was that of soil type and there were no effects of Bt trait or insecticide on plant growth. The Bt trait resulted in more soil nematodes and protozoa (amoebae), whereas insecticide application increased plant Bt concentration and altered nematode community structure. The only significant effects on soil microbial community structure, microarthropods, and larvae of a nontarget root-feeding Dipteran, were due to soil type and plant growth stage. The results indicate that, although there were statistically significant effects of the Bt trait on soil populations, they were small. The relative magnitude of the effect could best be judged by comparison with the insecticide treatment, which was representative of current best practice. The Bt trait had no greater effect than the insecticide treatment. Results from this glasshouse experiment were in broad agreement with conclusions from field experiments using the same plant material grown in the same soils.     

Persistent organic pollutants in European background air: derivation of temporal and latitudinal trends

Data are presented for polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyls ethers (PBDEs) and selected organochlorine compounds (OCs) in passive air samplers (PAS) along a rural/remote latitudinal transect from southern UK to northern Norway during 2002-2004. This study is part of an ongoing campaign, using semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs) as PAS over two year intervals since 1994. Data for PCBs, selected OCs and PBDEs are compared with that from previous campaigns. Absolute sequestered amounts of selected PCB congeners have decreased in a first order fashion between 1994-2004, with an average atmospheric clearance rate of 4.1 +/- 0.6 years and continue to fractionate with latitude. HCB has also declined between 1998-2004, with a clearance rate of 6 +/- 2.4 years. Data on DDT and its breakdown products indicate little fresh release in Europe. Comparison of PBDEs in 2000-02 and 2002-04 indicates site differences, generally with increases at UK sites and decreases in Norway. BDE-28, 47 and 49 decreased with increasing latitude (p < 0.04), while the other congeners did not show any significant latitudinal dependence. Transect data are presented for PAHs the first time. Three- and 4-ringed compounds dominated the mixture present in the SPMD. The PAH composition of the SPMDs at site 3 was compared to the average composition taken by active sampling at the same site. SPMD performance for sampling PAHs leaves many uncertainties, but they can be successfully used to semiquantitatively detect PAHs in the atmosphere. Fluorene and phenanthrene increased with latitude (p > 0.05), while 1-methylphenanthere, fluoranthene, benzo[b]fluoranthene and indeno[123-cd]pyrene decreased. Results are discussed in terms of sources, long-range atmospheric transport, global fractionation and clearance processes.     

The development of cryoprobe nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy for the rapid detection of organic contaminants in potable water

The detection of trace levels of a range of organic contaminants (including pesticides, toxins and an explosive) in potable water, using cryoprobe NMR spectroscopy with limited sample preparation and rapid acquisition times, is described. Emphasis is placed on the applicability of NMR spectroscopy for use in emergency scenarios as the unbiased nature of the technique facilitates the detection and characterization of unknown compounds at levels as low as 50 microg L(-1).     

Computational modeling and analysis of thoracolumbar spine fractures in frontal crash reconstruction

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to reconstruct 11 motor vehicle crashes (6 with thoracolumbar fractures and 5 without thoracolumbar fractures) and analyze the fracture mechanism, fracture predictors, and associated parameters affecting thoracolumbar spine response.

Methods: Eleven frontal crashes were reconstructed with a finite element simplified vehicle model (SVM). The SVM was tuned to each case vehicle and the Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) Ver. 4.01 was scaled and positioned in a baseline configuration to mimic the documented precrash driver posture. The event data recorder crash pulse was applied as a boundary condition. For the 6 thoracolumbar fracture cases, 120 simulations to quantify uncertainty and response variation were performed using a Latin hypercube design of experiments (DOE) to vary seat track position, seatback angle, steering column angle, steering column position, and D-ring height. Vertebral loads and bending moments were analyzed, and lumbar spine indices (unadjusted and age-adjusted) were developed to quantify the combined loading effect. Maximum principal strain and stress data were collected in the vertebral cortical and trabecular bone. DOE data were fit to regression models to examine occupant positioning and thoracolumbar response correlations.

Results: Of the 11 cases, both the vertebral compression force and bending moment progressively increased from superior to inferior vertebrae. Two thoracic spine fracture cases had higher average compression force and bending moment across all thoracic vertebral levels, compared to 9 cases without thoracic spine fractures (force: 1,200.6 vs. 640.8 N; moment: 13.7 vs. 9.2?Nm). Though there was no apparent difference in bending moment at the L1–L2 vertebrae, lumbar fracture cases exhibited higher vertebral bending moments in L3–L4 (fracture/nonfracture: 45.7 vs. 33.8?Nm). The unadjusted lumbar spine index correctly predicted thoracolumbar fracture occurrence for 9 of the 11 cases (sensitivity?=?1.0; specificity?=?0.6). The age-adjusted lumbar spine index correctly predicted thoracolumbar fracture occurrence for 10 of the 11 cases (sensitivity?=?1.0; specificity?=?0.8). The age-adjusted principal stress in the trabecular bone was an excellent indicator of fracture occurrence (sensitivity?=?1.0; specificity?=?1.0). A rearward seat track position and reclined seatback increased the thoracic spine bending moment by 111–329%. A more reclined seatback increased the lumbar force and bending moment by 16–165% and 67–172%, respectively.

Conclusions: This study provided a computational framework for assessing thoracolumbar fractures and also quantified the effect of precrash driver posture on thoracolumbar response. Results aid in the evaluation of motor vehicle crash–induced vertebral fractures and the understanding of factors contributing to fracture risk.     

Coral reef aerosol emissions in response to irradiance stress in the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

We investigate the correlation between stress-related compounds produced by corals of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and local atmospheric properties—an issue that goes to the core of the coral ecosystem’s ability to survive climate change. We relate the variability in a satellite decadal time series of fine-mode aerosol optical depth (AOD) to a coral stress metric, formulated as a function of irradiance, water clarity, and tide, at Heron Island in the southern GBR. We found that AOD was correlated with the coral stress metric, and the correlation increased at low wind speeds, when horizontal advection of air masses was low and the production of non-biogenic aerosols was minimal. We posit that coral reefs may be able to protect themselves from irradiance stress during calm weather by affecting the optical properties of the atmosphere and local incident solar radiation.