Achieving sustainability goals for urban coasts in the US Northeast: research needs and challenges

In the wake of Hurricane Sandy and other recent extreme events, urban coastal communities in the northeast region of the United States are beginning or stepping up efforts to integrate climate adaptation and resilience into long-term coastal planning. Natural and nature-based shoreline strategies have emerged as essential components of coastal resilience and are frequently cited by practitioners, scientists, and the public for the wide range of ecosystem services they can provide. However, there is limited quantitative information associating particular urban shoreline design strategies with specific levels of ecosystem service provision, and research on this issue is not always aligned with decision context and decision-maker needs. Engagement between the research community, local government officials and sustainability practitioners, and the non-profit and private sectors can help bridge these gaps. A workshop to bring together these groups discussed research gaps and challenges in integrating ecosystem services into urban sustainability planning in the urban northeast corridor. Many themes surfaced repeatedly throughout workshop deliberations, including the challenges associated with ecosystem service valuation, the transferability of research and case studies within and outside the region, and the opportunity for urban coastal areas to be a focal point for education and outreach efforts related to ecosystem services.     

Persistent organic pollutants in European background air: derivation of temporal and latitudinal trends

Data are presented for polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyls ethers (PBDEs) and selected organochlorine compounds (OCs) in passive air samplers (PAS) along a rural/remote latitudinal transect from southern UK to northern Norway during 2002-2004. This study is part of an ongoing campaign, using semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs) as PAS over two year intervals since 1994. Data for PCBs, selected OCs and PBDEs are compared with that from previous campaigns. Absolute sequestered amounts of selected PCB congeners have decreased in a first order fashion between 1994-2004, with an average atmospheric clearance rate of 4.1 +/- 0.6 years and continue to fractionate with latitude. HCB has also declined between 1998-2004, with a clearance rate of 6 +/- 2.4 years. Data on DDT and its breakdown products indicate little fresh release in Europe. Comparison of PBDEs in 2000-02 and 2002-04 indicates site differences, generally with increases at UK sites and decreases in Norway. BDE-28, 47 and 49 decreased with increasing latitude (p < 0.04), while the other congeners did not show any significant latitudinal dependence. Transect data are presented for PAHs the first time. Three- and 4-ringed compounds dominated the mixture present in the SPMD. The PAH composition of the SPMDs at site 3 was compared to the average composition taken by active sampling at the same site. SPMD performance for sampling PAHs leaves many uncertainties, but they can be successfully used to semiquantitatively detect PAHs in the atmosphere. Fluorene and phenanthrene increased with latitude (p > 0.05), while 1-methylphenanthere, fluoranthene, benzo[b]fluoranthene and indeno[123-cd]pyrene decreased. Results are discussed in terms of sources, long-range atmospheric transport, global fractionation and clearance processes.     

The development of cryoprobe nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy for the rapid detection of organic contaminants in potable water

The detection of trace levels of a range of organic contaminants (including pesticides, toxins and an explosive) in potable water, using cryoprobe NMR spectroscopy with limited sample preparation and rapid acquisition times, is described. Emphasis is placed on the applicability of NMR spectroscopy for use in emergency scenarios as the unbiased nature of the technique facilitates the detection and characterization of unknown compounds at levels as low as 50 microg L(-1).     

Anticipating public attitudes toward underground CO2 storage

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) may play a central role in managing carbon emissions from the power sector and industry, but public support for the technology is unclear. To address this knowledge gap, and to test the use of discrete choice analysis for determining public attitudes, two focus groups and a national survey were conducted in Canada to investigate the public's perceptions of the benefits and risks of CCS, the likely determinants of public opinion, and overall support for the use of CCS.The results showed slight support for CCS development in Canada, and a belief that CCS is less risky than normal oil and gas industry operations, nuclear power, or coal-burning power plants. A majority of respondents indicate that they would support the use of CCS as part of a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, although it would likely have to be used in combination with energy efficiency and alternative energy technologies in order to retain public support.     

Modelling contra-flow in crowd dynamics DEM simulation

This paper highlights the growing need for a realistic crowd simulation in the design of large venues such as concert halls and stadia. A discrete element method (DEM) technique for modelling crowd dynamics has been developed that represents each person within the model as 3 overlapping circles, a position, orientation and velocity in 2D. Contact forces between elements are included in the model as well as psychological forces, motive forces and moments. The motion of each person is then modelled in a Newtonian manner with a numerical integration time-stepping scheme. The model has been shown previously to work well in predicting egress. In this paper the predicted model behaviour is compared to actual video footage shot at various locations around University Park Campus, Nottingham. It did not match well to the video footage when people are moving towards each other, as in cases of contra-flow on a walkway. In order to improve the model, a general algorithm for ‘avoidance’ was included which appeared to make the model significantly more realistic in these cases. The paper also shows areas for further potential development, such as incorporating people into associative groups such as family or friends.     

The effect of the exposure time on the value of a manSievert averted

The basis of the manSievert as a unit for collective radiation dose is discussed and previous recommendations are considered for how much should be spent to avert a collective dose of 1 manSv. New calculations are given using the J-value method. It is shown that the value to be assigned to averting a manSievert depends on the duration of averted exposure as well as on the net discount rate and the loan rate thought to be appropriate. Different figures will result depending on whether the exposed group consists of workers or the general public. The variation with dose duration is so large that it is not possible to recommend a single figure for the value of a manSievert. Instead, tables are given at two conservative, loan and net discount rates for the value of a manSievert as a function of exposure time. The base data for the J-value method need to be updated annually, and this means that the values given in the tables will increase over time as people live longer and become richer.     

Environmental anomalies at the World Trade Center: evidence for energetic materials

Investigators monitoring air quality at the World Trade Center, after the September 11th attacks, found extremely high levels of volatile organic chemicals as well as unusual species that had never been seen before in structure fires. Data collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency indicate striking spikes in levels of benzene, styrene, and several other products of combustion. These spikes occurred on specific dates in October and November 2001, and February 2002. Additionally, data collected by researchers at the University of California Davis showed similar spikes in the levels of sulfur and silicon compounds, and certain metals, in aerosols. To better explain these data, as well as the unusual detection of 1,3-diphenylpropane, the presence of energetic nanocomposites in the pile at Ground Zero is hypothesized.     

A dynamic hydrological Monte Carlo simulation model to inform decision-making at Lake Toolibin,Western Australia

Lake Toolibin, an ephemeral lake in the agricultural zone of Western Australia, is under threat from secondary salinity due to land clearance throughout the catchment. The lake is extensively covered with native vegetation and is a Ramsar listed wetland, being one of the few remaining significant migratory bird habitats in the region. Currently, inflow with salinity greater than 1000 mg/L TDS is diverted from the lake in an effort to protect sensitive lakebed vegetation. However, this conservative threshold compromises the frequency and extent of lake inundation, which is essential for bird breeding. It is speculated that relaxing the threshold to 5000 mg/L may pose negligible additional risk to the condition of lakebed vegetation. To characterise the magnitude of improvement in the provision of bird breeding habitat that might be generated by relaxing the threshold, a dynamic water and salt balance model of the lake was developed and implemented using Monte Carlo simulation. Results from best estimate model inputs indicate that relaxation of the threshold increases the likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements by a factor of 9.7. A second-order Monte Carlo analysis incorporating incertitude generated plausible bounds of [2.6, 37.5] around the best estimate for the relative likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements. Parameter-specific sensitivity analyses suggest the availability of habitat is most sensitive to pan evaporation, lower than expected inflow volume, and higher than expected inflow salt concentration. The characterisation of uncertainty associated with environmental variation and incertitude allows managers to make informed risk-weighted decisions.     

Evaluating Participatory Modeling: Developing a Framework for Cross-Case Analysis

Participatory modeling is increasingly recognized as an effective way to assist collective decision-making processes in the domain of natural resource management. This article introduces a framework for evaluating projects that have adopted a participatory modeling approach. This evaluation framework—known as the “Protocol of Canberra”—was developed through a collaboration between French and Australian researchers engaged in participatory modeling and evaluation research. The framework seeks to assess the extent to which different participatory modeling initiatives not only modify perceptions among and interactions between participants, but also contribute to collective decision-making. The article discusses the development of the framework and it’s application to three case-studies, two from Australia and one from the Pacific Island of the Republic of Kiribati. The article concludes with some comments for future use of the framework in a range of participatory modeling contexts.     

The impact of coastal flooding on conservation areas: A study of the Clyde Estuary, Scotland

This study examines the impact of flooding on land of high conservation value located along part of the southern shoreline of the River Clyde Estuary in western Scotland. This paper hypothesizes that, over the next 50 years, the frequency and extent of coastal flooding will increase due to the gradual effect of global warming and the consequent rise in sea-level and increase in storminess. It is argued that because of the great cost of constructing new flood defence systems it will not be possible to protect all land areas to an equal extent from flooding. A means of ranking different land use will be necessary so that society can make a rational judgement concerning which sections of coastline will be worth protecting. This study provides a methodology that combines an objective ranking of conservation areas using non-economic indicators with a GIS model of flood potential, and permits accurate forecasts of flood losses to conservation areas of different ecological value. The conservation case study used in this paper proposes the use of an ecological weighting value based on five ecological variables each of 10 categories. Tables and maps identify the sites that have been highlighted as consisting of the most ‘valuable’ conservation sites. The methodology makes extensive use of geographical information systems (GIS) to model the predicted areas of flooding and to calculate conservation weighting values of the land areas.