ESTIMATING THE Q100 IN BRITISH COLUMBIA: A PRACTICAL PROBLEM IN FOREST HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT. Estimates of peak flows, with specified return periods, are needed in practice for the design of works that affect streams in forested areas. In the province of British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, the new Forest Practices Code specifies the 100-year instantaneous peak flow (Q100) for the design of bridges and culverts for stream crossings under forest roads; and many practitioners are engaged in making such estimates. The state of the art is still quite primitive, very similar to the state of urban hydrology 30 years ago, when popular estimating techniques were used with little consideration given to their applicability. Urban hydrology then evolved on a much more scientific basis, such that within about a 10-year period, standard approaches to design were developed. Forest hydrology should follow the same pattern, at least as far as estimating design flows is concerned. Popular present day design procedures include the rational method and other empirical approaches based on rainfall data, as use of the standard flood frequency approach is limited by the paucity of relevant flow data. Estimating procedures based on peak streamflow measurements and statistics are likely to evolve, and these will include distinctions for rain, snowmelt, and rain on snow floods. Guidelines will also be developed for selecting and applying appropriate procedures for particular areas.     

Inclusion complexes of alpha- and gamma-cyclodextrins and the herbicide norflurazon: I. Preparation and characterisation. II. Enhanced solubilisation and removal from soils

The interaction of norflurazon with alpha- and gamma-cyclodextrins (CDs) yielded the formation of inclusion complexes at a 1:1 stoichiometric ratio in solution and in the solid state. Apparent stability constants of 50.7+/-1.6 and 37+/-1.7 M(-1) and an increase in herbicide solubility by up to five and fourfold for alpha- and gamma-CD, respectively, were determined from the phase solubility diagrams at 25 degrees C in water. Three processing methods (kneading, spray-drying and vacuum evaporation) were used to prepare norflurazon-CD solid inclusion complexes, which were characterised by infrared spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry and scanning electron microscopy. A high increase in the norflurazon dissolution rate was obtained with all the solid complexes with gamma-CD, but when alpha-CD was used, only the solid system obtained after the vacuum evaporation process showed a higher dissolution rate. This finding is a first step in the development of new, environmentally sound formulations of norflurazon (NFL), due to the capacity for increasing its dissolution rate and hydrosolubility, and thus diminishing the use of organic solvents. On the other hand, the effect of alpha- and gamma-cyclodextrin on the solubility of norflurazon in solution was also considered as a way of modifying its behaviour in the soil environment. Desorption studies of NFL from soils in the presence of alpha- and gamma-cyclodextrin were carried out using a batch equilibration method. The results obtained showed that alpha- and gamma-cyclodextrin greatly increased the removal of norflurazon previously adsorbed, proving the potential use of these CDs for in situ remediation of pesticide-contaminated soils.     

Towards a climate change adaptation strategy for coffee communities and ecosystems in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico

The mountain chain of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas in southern Mexico is globally significant for its biodiversity and is one of the most important coffee production areas of Mexico. It provides water for several municipalities and its biosphere reserves are important tourist attractions. Much of the forest cover outside the core protected areas is in fact coffee grown under traditional forest shade. Unless this (agro)forest cover can be sustained, the biodiversity of the Sierra Madre and the environmental services it provides are at risk. We analyzed the threats to livelihoods and environment from climate change through crop suitability modeling based on downscaled climate scenarios for the period 2040 to 2069 (referred to as 2050s) and developed adaptation options through an expert workshop. Significant areas of forest and occasionally coffee are destroyed every year by wildfires, and this problem is bound to increase in a hotter and drier future climate. Widespread landslides and inundations, including on coffee farms, have recently been caused by hurricanes whose intensity is predicted to increase. A hotter climate with more irregular rainfall will be less favorable to the production of quality coffee and lower profitability may compel farmers to abandon shade coffee and expand other land uses of less biodiversity value, probably at the expense of forest. A comprehensive strategy to sustain the biodiversity, ecosystem services and livelihoods of the Sierra Madre in the face of climate change should include the promotion of biodiversity friendly coffee growing and processing practices including complex shade which can offer some hurricane protection and product diversification; payments for forest conservation and restoration from existing government programs complemented by private initiatives; diversification of income sources to mitigate risks associated with unstable environmental conditions and coffee markets; integrated fire management; development of markets that reward sustainable land use practices and forest conservation; crop insurance programs that are accessible to smallholders; and the strengthening of local capacity for adaptive resource management.     

The relevance of James Lovelock’s research and philosophy to environmental science and academia

James E. Lovelock, famed for his Gaia hypothesis, which views the Earth as a living integrated and interconnected self-regulating system whose equilibrium comes about from complex energy-based interactions and feedback loops, ultimately sustaining life, passed away at the end of July, 2022 at the age of 103. Not only are the adaptive mechanisms of Gaia central to the conversation of environmental homeostasis, they lie at the heart of climate change and global warming. Lovelock is also remembered as the co-inventor of the electron capture detector that eventually allowed for the sensitive detection of chlorofluorocarbons and pesticides. Finally, Lovelock’s free-spirited nature and research independence allow academia to rethink current research’s modus operandi.     

Learning from Tabasco’s floods by applying MORT

Natural disasters are increasing alarmingly worldwide in recent years. They have killed millions of people, and adversely affected the life of at least one billion people. Given this, natural disasters present a great challenge to society today concerning how they are to be mitigated so as to produce an acceptable risk is a question which has come to the fore in dramatic ways recently. In 2007, the state of Tabasco, Mexico, was flooded and it is believed that al least one million people were left homeless. The paper addresses the following question: what can be learnt from flood disasters? The paper presents some preliminary results of the analysis of the Tabasco’s flooding by applying the Management Oversight Risk Tree (MORT). The MORT technique may be regarded as a structured checklist in the form of a complex ‘fault-tree’ model that is intended to ensure that all aspects of an organization’s management are looked into when assessing the possible causes of an incident. One of the key conclusions of the present analysis is that the approach to decision making in relation ‘flood management’ at the time of the disaster has not been based explicitly on ‘flood risk assessment’. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis lessons can be learnt so that the impact of natural disasters such as the Tabasco’s flooding can be mitigated in the future.     

Bayesian analysis of Jolly-Seber type models

We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pussila) for which we extend existing stopover models to allow for individuals to have different behaviour in terms of their stopover duration at the site. We demonstrate the use of reversible jump MCMC methods to derive posterior distributions for the model parameters and the models, simultaneously. The algorithm moves between models with different numbers of arrival groups as well as between models with different numbers of behavioural groups. The approach is shown to provide new ecological insights about the stopover behaviour of semipalmated sandpipers but is generally applicable to any population in which animals arrive in groups and potentially exhibit heterogeneity in terms of one or more other processes.     

Reproductive stage and phonotactic preferences of female midwife toads (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alytes cisternasii</Emphasis>)

We studied the phonotactic response of Alytes cisternasii females at different reproductive stages (before and after oviposition) toward two male call characteristics (call rate and frequency) differing in variability, as well as in the strength of female preference. We measured female phonotactic response over several repetitions by means of the frequency of selection of the population-preferred alternative, consistency of choice, frequency of reciprocal calling activity, frequency of null trials, and average approach time. Our results showed that female mating preferences in A. cisternasii are highly influenced by the variability of male call characteristics, while only female motivation is related to reproductive stage.Communicated by T. Czeschlik     

Inter-annual variability in the breeding performance of six tropical seabird species: influence of life-history traits and relationship with oceanographic parameters

We investigated inter-annual variability in the breeding performance of six tropical seabirds with different life histories. We further examined the extent to which presumed differences among years in food availability to seabirds were related to large-scale oceanic processes (El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole) or local features around the colony (Sea Surface Temperature—SST, chlorophyll-a concentration, wind patterns, association with underwater predators). Two food shortages were recorded: (1) a short-term event operating at a local-scale, lacking any relationship with any measured oceanographic parameters and affecting only a few seabird species; (2) a generalized and protracted event, strikingly characterized by low SST, possibly induced by a La Niña and/or negative IOD event, and with detrimental impacts in the whole seabird community. Overall, species with inflexible feeding habits and fast chick growth rates were more affected by food shortage events than those with more plastic life-history traits.