Assessing risk and adaptation options to fires and windstorms in European forestry

Risks can generally be described as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Using this framework, we evaluated the historical and future development of risk of fire and wind damage in European forestry at the national level. Fire risk is expected to increase, mainly as a consequence of an increase in fire hazard, defined as the Fire Weather Index in summer. Exposure, defined as forest area, is expected to increase slightly as a consequence of active afforestation and abandonment of marginal agricultural areas. Adaptation options to fire risk should therefore aim to decrease the vulnerability, where a change in tree species from conifers to broadleaves had most effect. Risk for wind damage in forests is expected to increase mainly as a consequence of increase in exposure (total growing stock) and vulnerability (defined by age class and tree species distribution). Projections of future wind climate indicate an increase in hazard (storminess) mainly over Western Europe. Adaptation options should aim to limit the increase in exposure and vulnerability. Only an increase in harvest level can stop the current build-up of growing stock, while at the same time it will lower vulnerability through the reduction of the share of old and vulnerable stands. Changing species from conifers to broadleaves helps to reduce vulnerability as well. Lowering vulnerability by decreasing the rotation length is only effective in combination with a high demand for wood. Due to data limitations, no forecast of future fire area or damaged timber amount by storms was possible.     

Towards a climate change adaptation strategy for coffee communities and ecosystems in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico

The mountain chain of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas in southern Mexico is globally significant for its biodiversity and is one of the most important coffee production areas of Mexico. It provides water for several municipalities and its biosphere reserves are important tourist attractions. Much of the forest cover outside the core protected areas is in fact coffee grown under traditional forest shade. Unless this (agro)forest cover can be sustained, the biodiversity of the Sierra Madre and the environmental services it provides are at risk. We analyzed the threats to livelihoods and environment from climate change through crop suitability modeling based on downscaled climate scenarios for the period 2040 to 2069 (referred to as 2050s) and developed adaptation options through an expert workshop. Significant areas of forest and occasionally coffee are destroyed every year by wildfires, and this problem is bound to increase in a hotter and drier future climate. Widespread landslides and inundations, including on coffee farms, have recently been caused by hurricanes whose intensity is predicted to increase. A hotter climate with more irregular rainfall will be less favorable to the production of quality coffee and lower profitability may compel farmers to abandon shade coffee and expand other land uses of less biodiversity value, probably at the expense of forest. A comprehensive strategy to sustain the biodiversity, ecosystem services and livelihoods of the Sierra Madre in the face of climate change should include the promotion of biodiversity friendly coffee growing and processing practices including complex shade which can offer some hurricane protection and product diversification; payments for forest conservation and restoration from existing government programs complemented by private initiatives; diversification of income sources to mitigate risks associated with unstable environmental conditions and coffee markets; integrated fire management; development of markets that reward sustainable land use practices and forest conservation; crop insurance programs that are accessible to smallholders; and the strengthening of local capacity for adaptive resource management.     

Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project

This paper describes the MICORE approach to quantify for nine field sites the crucial storm related physical hazards (hydrodynamic as well as morphodynamic) in support of early warning efforts and emergency response.As a first step historical storms that had a significant morphological impact on a representative number of sensitive European coastal stretches were reviewed and analysed in order to understand storm related morphological changes and how often they occur around Europe. Next, an on-line storm prediction system was set up to enable prediction of storm related hydro- and morphodynamic impacts. The system makes use of existing off-the-shelf models as well as a new open-source morphological model. To validate the models at least one year of fieldwork was done at nine pilot sites. The data was safeguarded and stored for future use in an open database that conforms to the OpenEarth protocols.To translate quantitative model results to useful information for Civil Protection agencies the Frame of Reference approach ( [Van Koningsveld et al., 2005] and [Van Koningsveld et al., 2007] ) was used to derive Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) for relevant decision makers. The acquired knowledge is expected to be directly transferred to the civil society trough partnerships with end-users at the end of the MICORE project.     

Metal microchannel lamination using surface mount adhesives for low-temperature heat exchangers

This paper reports the feasibility of using surface mount adhesives to produce low temperature microchannel arrays in a wide variety of metals. Sheet metal embossing and chemical etching processes have been used to produce sealing bosses that eliminate channel laminae, resulting in approximately 50% material savings over traditional methods. An assembly process using adhesive dispense and cure is outlined to produce leak-free devices. Optimal fill ratios were determined to be between 1.1 and 1.25. Bond strength investigation reveals robustness to surface conditions and a bond strength of 5.5–8.5 MPa using a 3X safety factor. Dimensional characterization reveals a two sigma (95%) post-bonded channel height tolerance under 10% after bonding. Patterning tolerance and surface roughness of the laminae faying surfaces were found to have a significant influence on the final post-bonded channel height. Leakage and burst pressure testing on several samples has established confidence that adhesive bonding can produce leak-free joints. Operating pressures up to 413 kPa have been satisfied, equating to tensile pressure on bond joints of 1.9 MPa. Higher operating pressures can be accommodated by increasing the bond area of devices.     

上海市能源消费CO2排放清单与碳流通图

基于上海市能源统计数据,参照IPCC(2006)方法,测算了上海市能源CO2排放清单,并绘制了2007年上海市碳流通图.结果表明,上海市能源相关的CO2排放总量从1995年的1.10亿t增长到2007年的2.01亿t,期间年均增长率为5.0%.其中“交通”对应的CO2排放量增长最为迅速,年均增长率达15.1%;而“热电厂”的CO2排放量增幅逐渐变缓,其原因为近年上海市外来电力比重增大.2007年“热电厂”、“工业与建筑业”、“交通”、“商业”、“居民生活”与“农业”各部分CO2排放分担率分别为35.4%、34.4%、23.8%、4.0%、2.0%、0.4%.由2007年上海市碳流通图可见,15.6%的煤炭直接由终端使用,这不利于能源效率的提高与污染物的减排;成品油存在较多的交叉流通,若能够减少不必要的流通,不但能够缓解成品油的运输,还能够减少其在转运过程中的输配损失.     

Vigilance in wild Thomas's langurs (Presbytis thomasi ): the importance of infanticide risk

This study examines vigilance as a behavioural indicator of the importance of infanticide risk by comparing the infanticide avoidance hypothesis with the predation avoidance and mate defence hypotheses for wild Thomas's langurs (Presbytis thomasi) in Sumatra. We found that all individuals were more vigilant in situations of high predation risk, i.e. lower in the trees and in the absence of neighbours. Females were also more vigilant on the periphery of the group. However, there were variations in vigilance levels that could not be accounted for by the predation avoidance hypothesis. Males without infants showed higher levels of vigilance in areas of home range overlap than in non-overlap areas during the early phase of their tenure, strongly suggesting mate defence. In these areas of home range overlap where Thomas's langur groups can interact, males may attack females and infants, and so the infanticide risk for males and females with infants is likely to be high in these areas. Only females with infants, but not males with infants or females without infants, showed higher vigilance levels in overlap areas than in non-overlap areas; in addition, in overlap areas, females with an infant were more vigilant than females without an infant, while this was not the case in non-overlap areas. Both females and males with infants were more vigilant high in the trees than at medium heights in overlap areas but not elsewhere. These findings can only be explained by the infanticide avoidance hypothesis. In contrast to predator attacks, infanticidal male attacks come from high in the canopy, and only occur in overlap areas. There was a significant sex difference in vigilance, but males were only more vigilant than females without an infant, and not more vigilant than females with an infant. We conclude that vigilance varied mainly in relation to the risk of predation and infanticide. Mate competition only played a role for males during the early phase of their tenure. Predation risk seems to offer the best explanation for vigilance for all individuals in the absence of infants. Both predation risk and infanticide risk played a role for females and males with infants. Received: 4 April 1998 / Accepted after revision: 6 September 1998     

Prevalence and perspectives of illegal trade in cacti and succulent plants in the collector community

Although illegal wildlife trade (IWT) represents a serious threat to biodiversity, research into the prevalence of illegal plant collection and trade remains scarce. Because cacti and succulents are heavily threatened by overcollection for often illegal, international ornamental trade, we surveyed 441 members of the cacti and succulent hobbyist collector community with a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach. We sought to understand collector perspectives on the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) and on the threats IWT poses to cactus and succulent conservation. Most respondents (74% of 401 respondents) stated that illegal collection in cacti and succulents represents a “very serious problem” and that the problem of wild plant collection is increasing (72% of 319 respondents). Most forms of illegal collection and trade were seen as very unacceptable by respondents. Self-reported noncompliance with CITES rules was uncommon (11.2% of 418 respondents); it remains a persistent problem in parts of the cacti and succulent hobbyist community. People engaging in rule breaking, such as transporting plants without required CITES documents, generally did so knowingly. Although 60.6% of 381 respondents regarded CITES as a very important tool for conservation, sentiment toward CITES and its efficacy in helping species conservation was mixed. Collectors in our survey saw themselves as potentially playing important roles in cactus and succulent conservation, but this potential resource remains largely untapped. Our results suggest the need for enhanced consultation with stakeholders in CITES decision-making. For challenging subjects like IWT, developing evidence-based responses demands deep interdisciplinary engagement, including assessing the conservation impact of species listings on CITES appendices.     

Analysis of work related accidents in the Spanish mining sector from 1982-2006

Introduction

The rate for work related accidents in the Spanish mining sector is notably higher than in other countries such as the United States. It produces a very negative impact on the mining industry. This paper is the report of a study on serious and fatal accidents in Spanish mining from 1982-2006. It is based on the reports of 212 accidents (serious or fatal) carried out by the General Management of Energy and Mining of Catalonia (Spain). Method: The high work-related accident rate in the Spanish mining sector makes it necessary to carry out an analysis and research that can shed light on the causes of this high rate; this is the only way that a solution can be found. The study is based on Feyer and Williamson's analysis of accident causes, as they apply to 212 accidents. The types and causes of the accidents are coded according to the coding system used by the Spanish National Institute for Safety and Hygiene in the Workplace, which allows us to identify a series of direct causes and contributing factors in different accidents. Results If all the causes and factors that are present in the accidents are known, we are able to look for appropriate solutions to reduce them as much as possible. In short, we are able to come up with a series of conclusions that expose the weak links in the management of accident prevention in companies. This is helpful in the struggle to reduce work injuries in the Spanish mining sector.