Coupled human and natural systems

Humans have continuously interacted with natural systems, resulting in the formation and development of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS). Recent studies reveal the complexity of organizational, spatial, and temporal couplings of CHANS. These couplings have evolved from direct to more indirect interactions, from adjacent to more distant linkages, from local to global scales, and from simple to complex patterns and processes. Untangling complexities, such as reciprocal effects and emergent properties, can lead to novel scientific discoveries and is essential to developing effective policies for ecological and socioeconomic sustainability. Opportunities for truly integrating various disciplines are emerging to address fundamental questions about CHANS and meet society's unprecedented challenges.     

Perinatal outcomes and genomic characteristics of fetal copy number variants: An individual record linkage study of 713 pregnancies

Objective

To determine the perinatal outcomes of fetuses diagnosed with a pathogenic copy number variant (CNV) or variant of uncertain significance (VUS); and to characterize these variants in terms of testing indication, genomic location, size, and inheritance.

Methods

Retrospective study of singleton pregnancies with a pathogenic CNV or VUS from a single laboratory during 2012–2018. Probabilistic record linkage between the prenatal diagnosis dataset and perinatal outcome data for births from 20 weeks gestation was performed. If no birth record was found, this implied a pregnancy loss <20 weeks.

Results

We included 6945 prenatal microarray results; a pathogenic CNV was detected in 230 (3.3%, 95% CI: 2.9%–3.8%) and a VUS in 483 (7.0%, 95% CI: 6.4%–7.6%). Of pregnancies with a pathogenic CNV, 20.0% (95% CI: 15.3%–25.6%) had a live birth, 3.0% (95% CI: 1.5%–6.2%) had a perinatal death (stillbirth or neonatal death), and 77% (95% CI: 71.1%–81.9%) had no birth record. Of those with a VUS, 64.4% (95% CI: 60.0%–68.5%) had a live birth, 1.8% (95% CI: 1.0%–3.5%) had a perinatal death, and no birth record was found for 33.7% (95% CI: 29.7%–38.1%). Most pathogenic CNVs (61.1%) were <7 Mb in size. The most common microdeletion syndromes were DiGeorge, Wolf-Hirschhorn, and Cri-du-chat syndromes.

Conclusion

This study provides an overview of perinatal outcomes and frequency of recurrent CNVs observed in the prenatal microarray era.     

A Global Evaluation of Coral Reef Management Performance: Are MPAs Producing Conservation and Socio-Economic Improvements?

There is a consensus that Marine Protected Area (MPA) performance needs regular evaluation against clear criteria, incorporating counterfactual comparisons of ecological and socio-economic performance. However, these evaluations are scarce at the global level. We compiled self-reports from managers and researchers of 78 coral reef-based MPAs world-wide, on the conservation and welfare improvements that their MPAs provide. We developed a suite of performance measures including fulfilment of design and management criteria, achievement of aims, the cessation of banned or destructive activities, change in threats, and measurable ecological and socio-economic changes in outcomes, which we evaluated with respect to the MPA’s age, geographical location and main aims. The sample was found to be broadly representative of MPAs generally, and suggests that many MPAs do not achieve certain fundamental aims including improvements in coral cover over time (in 25% of MPAs), and conflict reduction (in 25%). However, the large majority demonstrated improvements in terms of slowing coral loss, reducing destructive uses and increasing tourism and local employment, despite many being small, underfunded and facing multiple large scale threats beyond the control of managers. However spatial comparisons suggest that in some regions MPAs are simply mirroring outside changes, with demonstrates the importance of testing for additionality. MPA benefits do not appear to increase linearly over time. In combination with other management efforts and regulations, especially those relating to large scale threat reduction and targeted fisheries and conflict resolution instruments, MPAs are an important tool to achieve coral reef conservation globally. Given greater resources and changes which incorporate best available science, such as larger MPAs and no-take areas, networks and reduced user pressure, it is likely that performance could further be enhanced. Performance evaluation should test for the generation of additional ecological and socio-economic improvements over time and compared to unmanaged areas as part of an adaptive management regime.     

A model for cost-benefit analysis of construction and demolition waste management throughout the waste chain

Economic instrument is indubitably perceived as effective for encouraging or forcing contractors to conduct environmentally friendly construction practices. Previous studies in relation to this topic mainly put emphasis on economic analysis of construction and demolition (C&D) waste management from a static point of view, which failed to consider its dynamics nature by integrating all essential activities throughout the waste chain. This paper is thus intended to highlight the dynamics and interrelationships of C&D waste management practices and analyze the cost-benefit of this process using a system dynamics approach. Data related to concrete and aggregate of a construction project in Shenzhen was collected for the application of the proposed model. The findings reveal that net benefits from conducting C&D waste management will occur, but a higher landfill charge will lead to a higher net benefit, as well as an earlier realization of the net benefit. In addition, the general public under a higher landfill charge will suffer from a higher environmental cost caused by illegal dumping. The simulation results also suggest that current regulation in Shenzhen should be promoted to facilitate a dramatic increase in net benefit from the implementation of C&D waste management. This research is of value in facilitating better understanding on the dynamics of C&D waste management activities throughout the waste chain, as well as providing a tool for simulating the cost-benefit of C&D waste management practices over the project duration.     

Tales of local sustainability

Abstract

Local Agenda 21 (LA21) has emerged as the principal means of addressing sustainable development practice at the local government level. In the UK, progressive local authorities have emphasised the need for participatory processes and innovative policy options. This requires commitment and active involvement from a variety of individuals and organisations. Participants in LA21 have been interviewed to determine their motivations and perceptions, and their responses are represented in terms of the storylines of various constituencies of interest. The key themes seem to be those of actively promoting widespread participation, gaining competence in innovative techniques, taking a holistic approach to quality of life concerns, and claiming the legitimacy of local government as a key player in sustainable development.     

Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis

Planning land-use for biodiversity conservation frequently involves computer-assisted reserve selection algorithms. Typically such algorithms operate on matrices of species presence–absence in sites, or on species-specific distributions of model predicted probabilities of occurrence in grid cells. There are practically always errors in input data—erroneous species presence–absence data, structural and parametric uncertainty in predictive habitat models, and lack of correspondence between temporal presence and long-run persistence. Despite these uncertainties, typical reserve selection methods proceed as if there is no uncertainty in the data or models. Having two conservation options of apparently equal biological value, one would prefer the option whose value is relatively insensitive to errors in planning inputs. In this work we show how uncertainty analysis for reserve planning can be implemented within a framework of information-gap decision theory, generating reserve designs that are robust to uncertainty. Consideration of uncertainty involves modifications to the typical objective functions used in reserve selection. Search for robust-optimal reserve structures can still be implemented via typical reserve selection optimization techniques, including stepwise heuristics, integer-programming and stochastic global search.     

A Lifecycle Assessment and Economic Valuation of Recycling

The financial costs of recycling schemes fail to account for external costs and benefits such as environmental pollution, road congestion and accidents. This paper compares the environmental and social impacts of a kerbside collection scheme for recyclable household waste, with a bring scheme, using lifecycle assessment. Economic valuation is used to assign relative weights to these impacts. A second comparison examines the relative external costs of recycling and landfill disposal of waste. The results show that the kerbside collection scheme has a lower external cost than the bring scheme, but this is of less importance than the benefits to be gained within the manufacturing system by using secondary materials. It is concluded that the combination of lifecycle assessment and economic valuation is an effective means of evaluation to direct the sustainable development of waste management.     

Adaptive significance of the age polyethism schedule in honeybee colonies

Summary The adaptive origins of the honeybee's age polyethism schedule were studied by testing whether the schedule for labor inside the nest reflects a compromise between efficiency in locating tasks and efficiency in performing tasks. I checked two predictions of this hypothesis: (1) at each age a worker handles a set of tasks (rather than one task), and (2) the elements of each age's task-set co-occur spatially in the nest (rather than being spatially segregated). Most observations match these predictions, once workers reach the age of 2 days. The unpredicted specialization of 0 to 2-day-old workers on the single task of cell cleaning may reflect an unusual ease in locating work sites for this particular task. There are 5 female castes in honeybee colonies: the queen (reproductive caste), plus 4 age subcastes among the workers (cell cleaning caste, broodnest caste, food storage caste, and forager caste).