Ecological Impact Assessment in Data-Poor Systems: A Case Study on Metapopulation Persistence

Legislation on the protection of biodiversity (e.g., European Union Habitat and Bird Directives) increasingly requires ecological impact assessment of human activities. However, knowledge and understanding of relevant ecological processes and species responses to different types of impact are often incomplete. In this paper we demonstrate with a case study how impact assessment can be carried out for situations where data are scarce but some expert knowledge is available. The case study involves two amphibian species, the great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) and the natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) in the nature reserve the Meinweg in the Netherlands, for which plans are being developed to reopen an old railway track called the Iron Rhine. We assess the effects of this railway track and its proposed alternatives (scenarios) on the metapopulation extinction time and the occupancy times of the patches for both species using a discrete-time stochastic metapopulation model. We quantify the model parameters using expert knowledge and extrapolated data. Because of our uncertainty about these parameter values, we perform a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. This yields an estimate of the probability distribution of the model predictions and insight into the contribution of each distinguished source of uncertainty to this probability distribution. We show that with a simple metapopulation model and an extensive uncertainty analysis it is possible to detect the least harmful scenario. The ranking of the different scenarios is consistent. Thus, uncertainty analysis can enhance the role of ecological impact assessment in decision making by making explicit to what extent incomplete knowledge affects predictions.     

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions of heavy metals in wheat

Heavy metals seriously threaten the health of human beings when they enter the food chain. Therefore, policymakers require precise predictions of heavy metal concentrations in agricultural crops. In this paper we quantify the uncertainty of regression predictions of Cd and Pb in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and the contributions to the uncertainties in these predictions associated with inputs to the regression model. For each node of the 500- x 500-m grid covering the arable soils in The Netherlands, a latin hypercube sample size of 1000 is constructed from the uncertainty distributions of the explanatory variables (pH, soil organic matter [SOM], and heavy metal concentration in soil), the regression coefficients, and the random term of the regression model. This sample is used as input for the regression model to obtain 1000 values from the uncertainty distributions of the log(Cd) and log(Pb) concentration in wheat. There were no nodes where the recent EU quality standards for Cd and Pb (0.2 mg kg(-1) fresh wt.) in wheat were almost certain to be exceeded. For most nodes with clay soils, the quality standard for Cd in wheat almost certainly will not be exceeded; for Pb this is much less certain. The uncertainty in the Cd concentration in soil contributes most to the uncertainty in the predicted Cd concentrations in wheat (36% on the average), followed by the random term of the regression model (23%). For Pb the contribution of the random term is by far the largest (52%).     

Atmospheric pollutants and ectomycorrhizae: more questions than answers?

Changes in research emphasis from pollution towards the effects of climate change have resulted from shifts in political and public interests. Information gained from research on the effects of pollutants as a perturbation on mycorrhizae and mycorrhizae-mediated processes may be an appropriate starting point from which to launch into climate change studies. However, the effects of pollution on mycorrhizae are not clear cut as there are many conflicting results. The methods used in experiments, levels of pollutants used and relationships between studies on seedling trees to the mature forest do not suggest unifying models of pollution effects. Some areas of work still lacking in the pollution field are highlighted. These include well replicated experiments at currently ambient pollutant levels, and areas for potential development in the global climate change arena, e.g. the interaction between C supply and nutrient uptake.     

Wistful wilderness: communication about ‘new’ nature in the Netherlands

Based on in-depth interviews, this article presents findings of a study centred on public communication regarding Tiengemeten, a Dutch island previously occupied by farmers. An answer is sought to the question of how visitors to Tiengemeten evaluate, according to their own experiences, the discourse of people involved in Tiengemeten from a policy and communication perspective. This study showed that visitors’ experiences do not always match the emotions appealed to in public communication materials. It is also suggested that people involved from a policy and communication perspective should refrain from using ‘heavily value-laden’ phraseology. For reasons of trust, this article suggests aligning public communication with genuine experiences of visitors. This is also necessary for avoiding scepticism of visitors as policy makers and communication professionals run a risk that public communication regarding nature becomes counterproductive.     

Method for determination of methane potentials of solid organic waste

A laboratory procedure is described for measuring methane potentials of organic solid waste. Triplicate reactors with 10 grams of volatile solids were incubated at 55 degrees C with 400 ml of inoculum from a thermophilic biogas plant and the methane production was followed over a 50-day period by regular measurements of methane on a gas chromatograph. The procedure involves blanks as well as cellulose controls. Methane potentials have been measured for source-separated organic household waste and for individual waste materials. The procedure has been evaluated regarding practicality, workload, detection limit, repeatability and reproducibility as well as quality control procedures. For the source-separated organic household waste a methane potential of 495 ml CH4/g VS was found. For fat and oil a lag-phase of several days was seen. The protein sample was clearly inhibited and the maximal methane potential was therefore not achieved. For paper bags, starch and glucose 63, 84 and 94% of the theoretical methane potential was achieved respectively. A detection limit of 72.5 ml CH4/g VS was calculated from the results. This is acceptable, since the methane potential of the tested waste materials was in the range of 200-500 ml CH4/g VS. The determination of methane potentials is a biological method subject to relatively large variation due to the use of non-standardized inoculum and waste heterogeneity. Therefore, procedures for addressing repeatability and reproducibility are suggested.     

How population dynamics shape the functional response in a one-predator-two-prey system

The type III functional response has historically been associated with switching predators; when there is a choice of prey the predator favors the more abundant prey type. Although this functional response has been found in experiments where both prey densities are manipulated, in real world studies the type II functional response is more commonly found. In modeling, the type III functional response is often used in systems where the second prey type is, implicitly, assumed to be constant. Here we define a functional response that takes into account both prey densities. This causes the functional response to show both type II and type III behavior, dependent on the interaction between the two prey densities. If we take into account population dynamics, we find a type II functional response in most cases, because predation regulates the relative prey densities. This explains why type III functional responses are found in experiments where both prey densities are manipulated, but type II functional responses occur when the feedback of population dynamics on the functional response is important. Furthermore, the results show that switching can have a stabilizing or destabilizing effect and can even lead to predator extinction.     

The importance of group‐focused transformational leadership and felt obligation for helping and group performance

Leaders face a challenge to simultaneously motivate workgroups and the individuals within them. Recent criticisms highlight the need to deconstruct broad leadership constructs to offer better theoretical insight into the effects of specific leadership behaviors on groups versus individuals. We address this call by exploring the effects of group‐focused and individual‐focused aspects of transformational leadership. Applying social identity theory, we theorize that group‐focused transformational leadership is key to fostering felt obligation, motivating helping behavior, and enhancing group performance, whereas individual‐focused leadership may only foster helping when individuals also feel a sense of obligation toward their workgroup. In a field study of 260 employees reporting to 36 supervisors in a skilled trade company, we find support for these predictions using multilevel structural equation modeling and multilevel mixed effects modeling. Thus, group‐focused (vs. individual‐focused) transformational leadership and subsequent felt obligation are important antecedents for encouraging helping and, in turn, workgroup performance.     

The impact of career customization on work outcomes: Boundary conditions of manager support and employee age

The current paper investigated the longitudinal effects of mass career customization (MCC) on job attitudes and objective career outcomes of employees in a professional service firm in the Netherlands. On the basis of theory on individualization of career trajectories, it was expected that the possibility for employees to customize their careers would be positively related to their job attitudes and subsequent objective career success, as indicated by their levels of affective commitment, work engagement, and received salary and bonuses. However, these effects were expected to occur primarily under the combination of high manager support for implementation of career customization and, on the basis of lifespan theory, older workers, as customization fulfills their increased heterogeneous career preferences. A three‐wave longitudinal study largely showed support for the study hypotheses; the relation between MCC use and work engagement and subsequent career success was stronger for older workers who received support for MCC, whereas the relation between MCC use and commitment was negative for older workers who received low support. The study shows the benefits of career customization in organizations by showing the conditions under which these benefits will manifest. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Management commitment to safety as organizational support: relationships with non-safety outcomes in wood manufacturing employees

INTRODUCTION: Employee perceptions of management commitment to safety are known to influence important safety-related outcomes. However, little work has been conducted to explore non-safety-related outcomes resulting from a commitment to safety. METHOD: Employee-level outcomes critical to the effective functioning of an organization, including attitudes such as job satisfaction and commitment to the organization, were included on surveys given to 641 hourly production employees at three wood products manufacturing facilities. Participants' were asked about perceptions of management commitment to safety and job-related variables such as perceived dangerousness of their position, organizational commitment, and withdrawal behaviors. Supervisors also rated the performance of each of their hourly subordinates. RESULTS: Results suggest that employee outcomes differ based on perceptions of management's commitment to safety. Specifically, management commitment to safety was positively related to job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and job-related performance. We also found a negative relationship between commitment to safety and employee withdrawal behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that increasing employee perceptions of management's personal concern for employee well-being through a dedication to safety will result in positive outcomes beyond improved safety performance. These results also imply that there is a type of social exchange between employees and management that may affect employees similarly to perceived organizational support. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Results further reinforce the value of a commitment to safety by a firm's management. Organizations with a strong commitment to safety may enjoy not only a reduction in safety-related events but also increases in desirable employee attitudes and behaviors.