Development of a probabilistic blood lead prediction model

A partially probabilistic blood lead prediction model has been developed, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency integrated exposure-uptake-biokinetic blood lead model (IEUBK model). This study translated the IEUBK model into a spreadsheet format. The uptake submodel incorporates uncertainty distributions for exposure and bioavailability parameters. The biokinetic submodel is duplicated with a table incorporating partitioning and decay of lead levels in the body. As a case study, the probabilistic model is applied to a lead exposure scenario involving a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah. The probabilistic model produces less biased estimates of means and standard deviations than the deterministic model. Parameter uncertainty is propagated in the model by the use of Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis is possible, and driving variables can be determined.     

Genetic monogamy in the common loon (Gavia immer)

We conducted behavioral observations and genetic analysis on breeding pairs of common loons in the upper Great Lakes region from 1993 through 1995 to look for behavioral evidence of extrapair copulations (EPCs) and to determine parentage of young. Pairs remained close to each other (usually within 20 m) during the pre-laying period, leaving little opportunity for EPCs to occur. Males and females both maintained physical proximity by approaching each other when they became separated. Copulations were obvious but infrequent, occurring about once every other day during the pre-laying period. Multilocus DNA fingerprinting was consistent with behavioral findings: 58 young from 47 different families were all genetic offspring of parents that raised them. Perfect genetic monogamy (genetic parentage of young by parents that rear them) in loons might arise as a consequence of the need for vigorous territorial defense to prevent territorial takeover. Received: 8 August 1996 / Accepted after revision: 22 March 1997     

A molecular genetic analysis of social structure, dispersal, and interpack relationships of the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus )

The African wild dog is a highly social, pack-living predator of the African woodland and savannah. The archetypal wild dog pack consists of a single dominant breeding pair, their offspring, and non-breeding adults who are either offspring or siblings of one of the breeding pair. Non-breeding adults cooperate in hunting, provisioning and the protection of young. From these observations follows the prediction that the genetic structure of wild dogs packs should resemble that of a multigenerational family, with all same-sexed adults and offspring within a pack related as sibs or half-sibs. Additionally, a higher kinship between females from neighboring packs should be evident if females tend to have small dispersal distances relative to males. We test these predictions through analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences and 14 microsatellite loci in nine wild dog packs from Kruger National Park, Republic of South Africa. We show that as predicted, African wild dog packs generally consist of an unrelated alpha male and female, subdominant close relatives, and offspring of the breeding pair. Sub-dominant wild dogs occasionally reproduce but their offspring rarely survive to 1 year of age. Relatedness influences the timing and location of dispersal events as dispersal events frequently coincide with a change in pack dominance hierarchy and dispersers often move to areas with a high proportion of close relatives. Received: 22 February 1996 / Accepted after revision: 16 November 1996     

Selective harvesting and habitat loss produce long-term life history changes in a mouflon population.

We examined the long-term effects (28 years) of habitat loss and phenotype-based selective harvest on body mass, horn size, and horn shape of mouflon (Ovis gmelini musimon) in southern France. This population has experienced habitat deterioration (loss of 50.8% of open area) since its introduction in 1956 and unrestricted selective hunting of the largest horned males since 1973. Both processes are predicted to lead to a decrease in phenotype quality by decreasing habitat quality and by reducing the reproductive contribution of individuals carrying traits that are targeted by hunters. Body mass and body size of both sexes and horn measurements of males markedly decreased (by 3.4-38.3%) in all age classes from the 1970s. Lamb body mass varied in relation to the spatiotemporal variation of habitat closure within the hunting-free reserve, suggesting that habitat closure explains part of these changes. However, the fact that there was no significant spatial variation in body mass in the early part of the study, when a decline in phenotypic quality already had occurred, provided support for the influence of selective harvesting. We also found that the allometric relationship between horn breadth and horn length changed over the study period. For a given horn length, horn breadth was lower during the second part of the study. This result, as well as changes in horn curve diameter, supports the interpretation that selective harvesting of males based on their horn configuration had evolutionary consequences for horn shape, since this phenotypic trait is less likely to be affected by changes in habitat characteristics. Moreover, males required more time (approximately four years) to develop a desirable trophy, suggesting that trophy hunting favors the reproductive contribution of animals with slow-growing horns. Managers should exploit hunters' desire for trophy males to finance management strategies which ensure a balance between the population and its environment. However, for long-term sustainable exploitation, harvest strategy should also ensure that selectively targeted males are allowed to contribute genetically to the next generations.     

Estimating the complexity of bird song by using capture-recapture approaches from community ecology

Repertoire size, the number of unique song or syllable types in the repertoire, is a widely used measure of song complexity in birds, but it is difficult to calculate this exactly in species with large repertoires. A new method of repertoire size estimation applies species richness estimation procedures from community ecology, but such capture-recapture approaches have not been much tested. Here, we establish standardized sampling schemes and estimation procedures using capture-recapture models for syllable repertoires from 18 bird species, and suggest how these may be used to tackle problems of repertoire estimation. Different models, with different assumptions regarding the heterogeneity of the use of syllable types, performed best for different species with different song organizations. For most species, models assuming heterogeneous probability of occurrence of syllables (so-called detection probability) were selected due to the presence of both rare and frequent syllables. Capture-recapture estimates of syllable repertoire size from our small sample did not differ significantly from previous estimates using larger samples of count data. However, the enumeration of syllables in 15 songs yielded significantly lower estimates than previous reports. Hence, heterogeneity in detection probability of syllables should be addressed when estimating repertoire size. This is neglected using simple enumeration procedures, but is taken into account when repertoire size is estimated by appropriate capture-recapture models adjusted for species-specific song organization characteristics. We suggest that such approaches, in combination with standardized sampling, should be applied in species with potentially large repertoire size. On the other hand, in species with small repertoire size and homogenous syllable usage, enumerations may be satisfactory. Although researchers often use repertoire size as a measure of song complexity, listeners to songs are unlikely to count entire repertoires and they may rely on other cues, such as syllable detection probability.Communicated by A. Cockburn