Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Ground‐Water Discharge Estimates for Semiarid Shrublands1

Abstract: We proposed a step‐by‐step approach to quantify the sensitivity of ground‐water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) to three categories of independent input variables. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a basic ground‐water discharge estimation model, in which the volume of ground water lost to ET was computed as the product of the ground‐water discharge rate and the associated area. The ground‐water discharge rate was assumed to equal the ET rate minus local precipitation. The objective of this study is to outline a step‐by‐step procedure to quantify the contributions from individual independent variable uncertainties to the uncertainty of total ground‐water discharge estimates; the independent variables include ET rates of individual ET units, areas associated with the ET units, and precipitation in each subbasin. The specific goal is to guide future characterization efforts by better targeting data collection for those variables most responsible for uncertainty in ground‐water discharge estimates. The influential independent variables to be included in the sensitivity analysis are first selected based on the physical characteristics and model structure. Both regression coefficients and standardized regression coefficients for the selected independent variables are calculated using the results from sampling‐based Monte Carlo simulations. Results illustrate that, while as many as 630 independent variables potentially contribute to the calculation of the total annual ground‐water discharge for the case study area, a selection of seven independent variables could be used to develop an accurate regression model, accounting for more than 96% of the total variance in ground‐water discharge. Results indicate that the variability of ET rate for moderately dense desert shrubland contributes to about 75% of the variance in the total ground‐water discharge estimates. These results point to a need to better quantify ET rates for moderately dense shrubland to reduce overall uncertainty in estimates of ground‐water discharge. While the approach proposed here uses a basic ground‐water discharge model taken from an earlier study, the procedure of quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity can be generalized to handle other types of environmental models involving large numbers of independent variables.     

Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

A Novel Method to Capture and Analyze Flow in a Gross Pollutant Trap Using Image-Based Vector Visualization

A novel method is developed to capture and analyze several experimental flow regimes through a gross pollutant trap (GPT) with fully and partially blocked screens. Typical flow conditions and screen blockages are based on findings from field investigations that show a high content of organic matter in urban areas. Fluid motion of neutral buoyant particles is tracked using a high-speed camera and particle image velocimetry (PIV) software. The recorded fluid motion is visualized through an image-based, line integral convolution (LIC) algorithm, generally suitable for large computational fluid dynamics (CFD) datasets. The LIC method, a dense representation of streamlines, is found to be superior to the point-based flow visualization (e.g., hedgehog or arrow plots) in highlighting main flow features that are important for understanding litter capture and retention in the GPT. Detailed comparisons are made between the flow regimes, and the results are compared with CFD data previously obtained for fully blocked screens. The LIC technique is a useful tool for identifying flow structures in the GPT and areas that are subjected to abnormalities difficult to detect by conventional methods. The novel method is found to be useful both in the laboratory and in the field, with little preparation and cost. The enhancements and pitfalls of the LIC technique along with the experimentally captured flow field are presented and discussed.     

Arctic Tipping Points: Governance in Turbulent Times

Interacting forces of climate change and globalization are transforming the Arctic. Triggered by a non-linear shift in sea ice, this transformation has unleashed mounting interest in opportunities to exploit the region’s natural resources as well as growing concern about environmental, economic, and political issues associated with such efforts. This article addresses the implications of this transformation for governance, identifies limitations of existing arrangements, and explores changes needed to meet new demands. It advocates the development of an Arctic regime complex featuring flexibility across issues and adaptability over time along with an enhanced role for the Arctic Council both in conducting policy-relevant assessments and in promoting synergy in interactions among the elements of the emerging Arctic regime complex. The emphasis throughout is on maximizing the fit between the socioecological features of the Arctic and the character of the governance arrangements needed to steer the Arctic toward a sustainable future.     

Impact of injection system design on ISCO performance with permanganate--mathematical modeling results

In situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) using permanganate (MnO(4)(-)) can be a very effective technique for remediation of soil and groundwater contaminated with chlorinated solvents. However, many ISCO projects are less effective than desired because of poor delivery of the chemical reagents to the treatment zone. In this work, the numerical model RT3D was modified and applied to evaluate the effect of aquifer characteristics and injection system design on contact and treatment efficiency. MnO(4)(-) consumption was simulated assuming the natural oxidant demand (NOD) is composed of a fraction that reacts instantaneously and a fraction that slowly reacts following a 2nd order relationship where NOD consumption rate increases with increasing MnO(4)(-) concentration. MnO(4)(-) consumption by the contaminant was simulated as an instantaneous reaction. Simulation results indicate that the mass of permanganate and volume of water injected has the greatest impact on aquifer contact efficiency and contaminant treatment efficiency. Several small injection events are not expected to increase contact efficiency compared to a single large injection event, and can increase the amount of un-reacted MnO(4)(-) released down-gradient. High groundwater flow velocities can increase the fraction of aquifer contacted. Initial contaminant concentration and contaminant retardation factor have only a minor impact on volume contact efficiency. Aquifer heterogeneity can have both positive and negative impacts on remediation system performance, depending on the injection system design.     

Exposure to heavy metals in blood and risk perception of the population living in the vicinity of municipal waste incinerators in Korea

Background, aim, and scope

The purpose of this study was to monitor and present the heavy metal concentrations in the blood of residents of areas near municipal waste incinerators (MWIs), who are more prone to environmental pollution. We also sought to compare and analyze the residents?? perception of environmental pollution as one of the factors affecting heavy metal concentrations in the blood using a survey about the perceived damage caused by the facilities. Since heavy metal levels in the blood can be affected not only by local environmental pollution but also by personal and occupational factors, heavy metal levels in the blood need to be verified and consistently monitored.

Methods

Residents who live within 300?m of MWIs in Seoul are acknowledged to be under indirect influence according to the Waste Disposal Act. A survey was given to 841 residents living within 300?m of a MWI from 2006 to 2009. The concentrations of heavy metals (lead, cadmium, and mercury) in the blood were measured in the 841 surveyed residents and in 105 residents in reference areas. Additionally, the perception of the damage caused by municipal waste incinerators was investigated using scores from 1 to 5 on a Likert scale.

Results

The measurements of the heavy metal concentrations in the blood showed that the mean concentrations of lead, cadmium, and mercury were 43.1, 1.7, and 1.3?ug/L, respectively. The blood levels of lead and cadmium were slightly higher in the group of the subjects who had resided the longest near the municipal waste incinerators. When compared with the domestic investigation by the Ministry of Environment, the concentrations of lead and cadmium were a little higher, while that of mercury was a little lower. Overall, there was no significant difference in the distribution of heavy metal levels in the blood among age groups. Additionally, the investigation of the perceived damage from municipal waste incinerators showed that the subjects     

Coupled infrared extinction spectra and size distribution measurements for several non-clay components of mineral dust aerosol (quartz, calcite, and dolomite)

Simultaneous size distributions and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) extinction spectra have been measured for several representative components of mineral dust aerosol (quartz, calcite, and dolomite) in the fine particle size mode (D=0.1–1 μm). Optical constants drawn from the published literature have been used in combination with the experimentally determined size distributions to simulate the extinction spectra. In general, Mie theory does not accurately reproduce the peak position or band shape for the prominent IR resonance features in the 800–1600 cm⁻¹ spectral range. The resonance peaks in the Mie simulation are consistently blue shifted relative to the experimental spectra by 20–50 cm⁻¹. Spectral simulations, derived from a simple Rayleigh-based analytic theory for a “continuous distribution of ellipsoids” particle shape model, better reproduce the experimental spectra, despite the fact that the Rayleigh approximation is not strictly satisfied in these experiments. These results differ from our previous studies of particle shape effects in silicate clay mineral dust aerosols where a disk-shaped model for the particles was found to be more appropriate.     

Characterization of PM2.5 aerosols dominated by local pollution and Asian dust observed at an urban site in Korea during aerosol characterization experiments (ACE)--Asia Project

Daily fine particulate matter (PM2.5) samples were collected at Gwangju, Korea, during the Aerosol Characterization Experiments (ACE)-Asia Project to determine the chemical properties of PM2.5 originating from local pollution and Asian dust (AD) storms. During the study period, two significant events occurred on April 10-13 and 24-25, 2001, and a minor event occurred on April 19, 2001. Based on air mass transport pathways identified by back-trajectory calculation, the PM2.5 dataset was classified into three types of aerosol populations: local pollution and two AD aerosol types. The two AD types were transported along different pathways. One originated from Gobi desert area in Mongolia, passing through Hunshandake desert in Northern Inner Mongolia, urban and polluted regions of China (AD1), and the other originated in sandy deserts located in the Northeast Inner Mongolia Plateau and then flowed southward through the Korean peninsula (AD2). During the AD2 event, a smoke plume that originated in North Korea was transported to our study site. Mass balance closures show that crustal materials were the most significant species during both AD events, contributing -48% to the PM2.5 mass; sulfate aerosols (19.1%) and organic matter (OM; 24.6%) were the second greatest contributors during the AD1 and AD2 periods, respectively, indicating that aerosol properties were dependent on the transport pathway. The sulfate concentration constituted only 6.4% (4.5 microg/m3) of the AD2 PM2.5 mass. OM was the major chemical species in the local pollution-dominated PM2.5 aerosols, accounting for 28.7% of the measured PM2.5 mass, followed by sulfate (21.4%), nitrate (15%), ammonium (12.8%), elemental carbon (8.9%), and crustal material (6.5%). Together with substantial enhancement of the crustal elements (Mg, Al, K, Ca, Sc, Ti, Mn, Fe, Sr, Zr, Ba, and Ce), higher concentrations of pollution elements (S, V, Ni, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb) were observed during AD1 and AD2 than during the local pollution period, indicating that, in addition to crustal material, the AD dust storms also had a significant influence on anthropogenic elements.     

Evaluation of marine outfall with three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling

Numerical models are often used to evaluate the potential impact of human alternation of natural water bodies and to help the design of the alternation to mitigate its impacts. In the past decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. This paper presents a practical study in which a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model [hydrodynamic eutrophication model (HEM-3D)] was applied to determine the optimal location for treated wastewater discharged from marine outfall system in the Keelung harbor and the adjacent coastal sea. First, model validation was conducted with respect to surface elevation, current, and water quality variables measured in the Keelung harbor station and its coastal sea. The overall performance of the model was in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to evaluate several scenarios of the locations from marine outfall system. Based on model simulation results, a location at the northeast of Ho-Ping Island was recommended for adoption because the environmental impact is smaller than any other alternative.

Effect of amorphous silica and silica sand on removal of chromium(VI) by zero-valent iron

The effect of two surfaces (amorphous silica and silica sand) on the reduction of chromium(VI) by zero-valent iron (Fe(0)) was investigated using batch reactors. The amendment of both surfaces significantly increased the rate and extent of Cr(VI) removal. The rate enhancement by amended surfaces is presumed to result from scavenging of Fe(0)-Cr(VI) reaction products by the provided surfaces, which minimized surface deactivation of Fe(0). The rate enhancing effect was greater for silica compared to sand, and the difference is attributed to silica's higher surface area, greater affinity for reaction products and pH buffering effect. For a given mass of Fe(0), the reactivity and longevity of Fe(0) to treat Cr(VI) increased with increasing dose of silica. Elemental analyses of the reacted iron and silica revealed that chromium removed from the solution was associated with both surfaces, with its mass distribution being approximately 1:1 per mass of iron and silica. The overall result suggests reductive precipitation was a predominant Cr(VI) removal pathway, which involves initial reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III), followed by formation of Cr(III)/Fe(III) hydroxides precipitates.