Development and implementation of a remote-sensing and in situ data-assimilating version of CMAQ for operational PM2.5 forecasting. Part 1: MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) data-assimilation design and testing

This two-part paper reports on the development, implementation, and improvement of a version of the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that assimilates real-time remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) information and ground-based PM_2.5 monitor data in routine prognostic application. The model is being used by operational air quality forecasters to help guide their daily issuance of state or local-agency-based air quality alerts (e.g. action days, health advisories). Part 1 describes the development and testing of the initial assimilation capability, which was implemented offline in partnership with NASA and the Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) Regional Planning Organization (RPO). In the initial effort, MODIS-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) data are input into a variational data-assimilation scheme using both the traditional Dark Target and relatively new “Deep Blue” retrieval methods. Evaluation of the developmental offline version, reported in Part 1 here, showed sufficient promise to implement the capability within the online, prognostic operational model described in Part 2. In Part 2, the addition of real-time surface PM_2.5 monitoring data to improve the assimilation and an initial evaluation of the prognostic modeling system across the continental United States (CONUS) is presented.

Implications: Air quality forecasts are now routinely used to understand when air pollution may reach unhealthy levels. For the first time, an operational air quality forecast model that includes the assimilation of remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth and ground based PM_2.5 observations is being used. The assimilation enables quantifiable improvements in model forecast skill, which improves confidence in the accuracy of the officially-issued forecasts. This helps air quality stakeholders be more effective in taking mitigating actions (reducing power consumption, ride-sharing, etc.) and avoiding exposures that could otherwise result in more serious air quality episodes or more deleterious health effects.     

A new approach to characterize emission contributions from area sources during optical remote sensing technique testing

In the method termed “Other Test Method-10,” the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a method to quantify emissions from nonpoint sources by the use of vertical radial plume mapping (VRPM) technique. The surface area of the emitting source and the degree to which the different zones of the emitting source are contributing to the VRPM computed emissions are often unknown. The objective of this study was to investigate and present an approach to quantify the unknown emitting surface area that is contributing to VRPM measured emissions. Currently a preexisting model known as the “multiple linear regression model,” which is described in Thoma et al. (2009 Thoma, E.R., Green, R., Hater, G., Goldsmith, C., Swan, N., Chase, M. and Hashmonay, R. 2010. Development of EPA OTM-10 for landfill applications. J. Environ. Eng., 136: 769–776. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), is used for quantifying the unknown surface area.

The method investigated and presented in this paper utilized tracer tests to collect data and develop a model much like that described in Thoma et al. (2009 Thoma, E.R., Green, R., Hater, G., Goldsmith, C., Swan, N., Chase, M. and Hashmonay, R. 2010. Development of EPA OTM-10 for landfill applications. J. Environ. Eng., 136: 769–776. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, unlike the study used for development of the multiple linear regression model, this study is considered a very limited study due to the low number of pollutant releases performed (seven total releases). It was found through this limited study that the location of an emitting source impacts VRPM computed emissions exponentially, rather than linearly (i.e., the impact that an emitting source has on VRPM measurements decreases exponentially with increasing distances between the emitting source and the VRPM plane). The data from the field tracer tests were used to suggest a multiple exponential regression model. The findings of this study, however, are based on a very small number of tracer tests. More tracer tests performed during all types of climatic conditions, terrain conditions, and different emissions geometries are still needed to better understand the variation of capture efficiency with emitting source location. This study provides a step toward such an objective.

Implications The findings of this study will aid in the advancement of the VRPM technique. In particular, the contribution of this study is to propose a slight improvement in how the area contributing to flux is determined during VRPM campaigns. This will reduce some of the technique's inherent uncertainties when it is employed to estimate emissions from an area source under nonideal conditions.     

Assessment of lead uptake in reptilian prey species

As part of an investigation determining the trophically available fraction of metals in a model terrestrial food web, i.e., invertebrate prey to Western fence lizards (Sceloporus occidentalis), we evaluated the ability of several invertebrate prey to bioaccumulate lead and to form metals-rich granules, which are hypothesized to be non-available to predators. Crickets (Acheta domestica), tenebroid beetle larvae (Tenebrio molitor), and isopods (Porcellio scaber) were selected as model prey organisms. Lack of standard exposure methodologies for these species has presented a barrier to trophic transfer evaluations, as each species has particular requirements that create challenges for designing exposure conditions. We were able to devise exposure conditions for all three species that allow long-term exposure studies. All prey organisms accumulated lead from contaminated food, and for all species the majority of the accumulated Pb was associated with the exoskeleton (>50%), with metals-rich granules accounting for most of the remaining accumulated lead.     

Surrogate Measures for Providing High Frequency Estimates of Total Suspended Solids and Total Phosphorus Concentrations1

Spackman Jones, Amber, David K. Stevens, Jeffery S. Horsburgh, and Nancy O. Mesner, 2010. Surrogate Measures for Providing High Frequency Estimates of Total Suspended Solids and Total Phosphorus Concentrations. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐15. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00505.x Abstract: Surrogate measures like turbidity, which can be observed with high frequency in situ, have potential for generating high frequency estimates of total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. In the semiarid, snowmelt‐driven, and irrigation‐regulated Little Bear River watershed of northern Utah, high frequency in situ water quality measurements were recorded in conjunction with periodic chemistry sampling. Site‐specific relationships were developed using turbidity as a surrogate for TP and TSS at two monitoring locations. Methods are presented for employing censored data and for investigating categorical explanatory variables (e.g., hydrologic conditions). Turbidity was a significant explanatory variable for TP and TSS at both sites, which differ in hydrologic and water quality characteristics. The relationship between turbidity and TP was stronger at the upper watershed site where TP is predominantly particulate. At both sites, the relationships between turbidity and TP varied between spring snowmelt and base flow conditions while the relationships between TSS and turbidity were consistent across hydrological conditions. This approach enables the calculation of high frequency time series of TP and TSS concentrations previously unavailable using traditional monitoring approaches. These methods have broad application for situations that require accurate characterization of fluxes of these constituents over a range of hydrologic conditions.     

REGULATING NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION IN SURFACE WATERS: A PROPOSAL1

ABSTRACT: Nonpoint sources (NPS) are an important and continuing source of toxic and conventional pollutants to surface waters. The Clean Water Act amendments of 1987 call for the regulation of these sources through the use of Best Management Practices (BMP). However, BMP implementation has generally occurred on a voluntary basis. This paper proposes a regulatory mechanism to control nonpoint source pollution. The regulatory mechanism involves the development of consortia, made up of all parties potentially responsible for NPS pollution, the development of wasteload allocations that coordinate the pollutant contributions from both point and nonpoint sources in a stream segment, and the issuance of permits to consortia to regulate the impacts of NPS pollution and ensure achievement of state or federal Water Quality Criteria and Standards.     

Fish consumption in pregnancy, cord blood mercury level and cognitive and psychomotor development of infants followed over the first three years of life: Krakow epidemiologic study

BACKGROUND: Although the maternal fish consumption is supposed to have beneficial effects on development of infants, it may be harmful for child cognitive development since fish is a common source of methylmercury. PURPOSE OF THE STUDY: Purpose of the study was to describe the usual pattern of fish consumption during pregnancy in Poland and explain the variability of prenatal mercury exposure due to fish intake by mothers. The other endpoint of the study was the assessment of the cognitive and psychomotor development of infants related to prenatal mercury exposure over the 3-year follow-up. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study sample consisted of 374 infants born at 33-42 weeks of gestation between January 2001 and March 2003 to mothers attending ambulatory prenatal clinics in the first and second trimesters of pregnancy. Total mercury level in whole cord blood was measured and the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID-II) was used to assess the mental (MDI) and psychomotor developmental index (PDI) in children at 12, 24 and 36 months of age. RESULTS: Self-reported weekly amount of fish consumption during the first two trimesters of pregnancy correlated positively with umbilical cord mercury concentrations (r(s)=0.22, p<0.0001). The corresponding correlation coefficient for the fish consumption in the third trimester of pregnancy was 0.21, p<0.0001. There was an inverse association between mercury exposure and both MDI (beta regression coeff.=-2.8, p=0.01) and PDI scores (beta coeff.=-2.3, p=0.04) at 12 months of age. Subsequent BSID-II testing at 24 and 36 months did not confirm significant association between exposure and cognitive or psychomotor function. The estimates of association between mercury prenatal exposure and the development of infants, which were based on the longitudinal analysis of all BSID-II measurements done in the follow-up (generalized estimating equations statistical model) showed that the performance deficit observed at 12 months of age was of border significance.     

Applying systems thinking concepts in the analysis of major incidents and safety culture

In recent years, investigations into major incidents often highlight poor safety culture as one of the key causal factors. These investigations are often assisted by causal analysis tools that help to ensure that the investigation and the information captured are systematic. However, current causal analysis tools are not designed to analyse dynamic complexity of major incidents and safety culture, which arises from the interactions between actors and the temporal and spatial gaps between actions and consequences. This is because most causal analysis tools model events and causal factors linearly. In contrast, systems thinking, a discipline of seeing systems holistically, emphasises the circular nature of complex systems, i.e. cause and effect are not distinguishable. This paper proposes that traditional causal analysis tools and investigation should be enhanced with the use of systems thinking tools.One of the systems thinking tools that is particularly useful in analysing major incidents and safety culture is causal loop diagrams. The diagrams can be used to explain the systemic structure sustaining a safety culture and identify effective interventions to improve the safety culture and prevent a recurrence of a major incident. The paper demonstrates the use of systems thinking and causal loop diagrams through a case study on Bellevue hazardous waste fire in Western Australia. The case study shows how different actors in the system, each acting in reaction to pressures that they are facing, produced and sustained a poor safety culture that was a major contributory factor to the fire in 2001.     

Methane flux and oxidation at two types of intermediate landfill covers

Methane emissions were measured on two areas at a Florida (USA) landfill using the static chamber technique. Because existing literature contains few measurements of methane emissions and oxidation in intermediate cover areas, this study focused on field measurement of emissions at 15-cm-thick non-vegetated intermediate cover overlying 1-year-old waste and a 45-cm-thick vegetated intermediate cover overlying 7-year-old waste. The 45 cm thick cover can also simulate non-engineered covers associated with older closed landfills. Oxidation of the emitted methane was evaluated using stable isotope techniques. The arithmetic means of the measured fluxes were 54 and 22 g CH(4) m(-2)d(-1) from the thin cover and the thick cover, respectively. The peak flux was 596 g m(-2)d(-1) for the thin cover and 330 g m(-2)d(-1) for the thick cover. The mean percent oxidation was significantly greater (25%) at the thick cover relative to the thin cover (14%). This difference only partly accounted for the difference in emissions from the two sites. Inverse distance weighing was used to describe the spatial variation of flux emissions from each cover type. The geospatial mean flux was 21.6 g m(-2)d(-1) for the thick intermediate cover and 50.0 g m(-2)d(-1) for the thin intermediate cover. High emission zones in the thick cover were fewer and more isolated, while high emission zones in the thin cover were continuous and covered a larger area. These differences in the emission patterns suggest that different CH(4) mitigation techniques should be applied to the two areas. For the thick intermediate cover, we suggest that effective mitigation of methane emissions could be achieved by placement of individualized compost cells over high emission zones. Emissions from the thin intermediate cover, on the other hand, can be mitigated by placing a compost layer over the entire area.     

Integrating Sustainable Development into Global Institutions： Reforming the United Nations

This article will briefly outline the origins, structure and functions of United Nations Environment Program and the Commission on Sustainable Development in the context of the goals of ecologically sustainable development （ESD）. Economic development, social development and environmental protection form the three interconnected parts of ESD. The achievements of the key UN environmental institutions and programs in opening up the global system to civil society, the private sector and a diversity of actors and interests, promoting the role of poverty alleviation as part of ESD through the Millennium Development Goals, and facilitating important Multilateral Environmental Agreements should be recognized. However, with these notable exceptions, organizations such as United Nations Environment Program and the Commission on Sustainable Development have become weak in scientific and technical leadership, global policy, co-ordination （inside and outside the UN） and has few achievements in the inter- national and national implementation of obligations and standards in Global Environmental Governance - including enforcement, compliance and effectiveness. This article will outline the key reasons for this inadequacy. Attention will also be focused on the way forward through of a new United Nations Environment Organization. This will require a clarification of purpose and function （within the UN system and as part of global governance structures） as well as consideration of whether it depends on system-wide UN reform. It is recommended that medium and long term strategies for reform are necessary.