Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk,uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

Early prenatal direct gene diagnosis of cystic fibrosis in a twin pregnancy and subsequent selective termination

We present a case of prenatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis (CF) in one twin at 11–12 weeks of gestation. The parents had previously had two children, one of whom is alive and healthy and one who died of CF at the age of 2½ months. The parents were both known to be carriers of the ΔF508 mutation. Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) was performed and direct gene analysis showed that one fetus was homozygous for the ΔF508 mutation, while the other fetus did not have the mutation at all. Both fetuses had normal karyotypes. Selective termination was subsequently performed. The pregnancy continued without complications except for mild pre-eclampsia at term. The woman had a Caesarean section. The genetic diagnosis was confirmed after birth.     

Fetal chromosome analysis: Screening for chromosome disease?

The aim of the study was to investigate the rationale of the current indications for fetal chromosome analysis. 5372 women had 5423 amniocenteses performed, this group constituting a consecutive sample at the chromosome laboratory, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen from March 1973 to September 1980 (Group A + B). Pregnant women 35 years of age, women who previously had a chromosomally abnormal child, families with translocation carriers or other heritable chromosomal disease, families where the father was 50 years or more and women in families with a history of Down's syndrome (group A), were compared to women having amniocentesis, although considered not to have any increased risk of fetal chromosome abnormality (1390 pregnancies, group B). They were also compared with 750 consecutive pregnancies in women 25–34 years of age, in whom all heritable diseases were excluded (group Q. The risk of unbalanced chromosome abnormality in group A (women with elevated risk) is significantly higher than in group B + C (women without elevated risk) (relative risk 2–4). Women with a known familial translocation and women 40 years or more have a relative risk of 5–7 of having an unbalanced chromosome abnormality compared with women without elevated risk. Spontaneous abortion rate and prematurity rate did not differ from rates expected without amniocentesis. It is concluded that current indications may be characterized as a mixture of evident high risk factors and factors with only a minor influence on risk. Indications for amniocentesis should therefore be reconsidered. Because it must be considered impractical and ethically wrong to limit amniocentesis to the two mentioned real high risk groups, and illogical to continue the present policy, which is not based on clearcut evidence, the possibility of offering amniocentesis to all who want it, is discussed. Screening for chromosome disease in all pregnancies is not without problems, but may be reasonable in some localities.     

Genetic amniocentesis at 7–14 weeks of gestation

Genetic amniocentesis performed at 7–14 weeks of gestation was studied in a series of 138 patients of whom 50 wanted termination of pregnancy (⩽ 12 weeks). The material for analysis consisted of 132 samples due to two sampling failures and four samples being handled incorrectly. Forty-eight samples (36 per cent) were taken at 7–12 weeks of gestation, mainly transvaginally (36/48:75 per cent). The success rate of culture and karyotyping increased with the duration of pregnancy, but was only satisfactory from week 11 onwards. The time until harvest was then 14–15 days. The transvaginal approach is easy to perform and was accepted by the women, but we experienced bacterial or fungal overgrowth in 17 per cent of these samples, whereas no infection occurred in the samples taken transabdominally (n = 96). We conclude that genetic amniocentesis is feasible from week 11, but further studies concerning side effects, especially focusing on the procedure-related abortion risk, should be carried out before early amniocentesis is routinely applied.     

Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry

Agriculture is the human enterprise that is most vulnerable to climate change. Tropical agriculture, particularly subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable, as smallholder farmers do not have adequate resources to adapt to climate change. While agroforestry may play a significant role in mitigating the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG), it also has a role to play in helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. In this paper, we examine data on the mitigation potential of agroforestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. We then present the scientific evidence that leads to the expectation that agroforestry also has an important role in climate change adaptation, particularly for small holder farmers. We conclude with priority research questions that need to be answered concerning the role of agroforestry in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

Formation of volatile iodinated alkanes in soil: results from laboratory studies

Volatile iodinated organic compounds play an important role in the tropospheric photochemical system, but the current knowledge of the known sources and sinks of these alkyl iodides is still incomplete. This paper describes a new source of alkyl iodides from the pedosphere. Different organic-rich soils and humic acid were investigated for their release of volatile organoiodides. Six volatile organoiodides, iodomethane, iodoethane, 1-iodopropane, 2-iodopropane, 1-iodobutane and 2-iodobutane were identified and their release rates were determined. We assume an abiotic reaction mechanism induced by the oxidation of organic matter by iron(III). The influence of iron(III), iodide and pH on the formation of alkyl iodides was investigated. Additionally, different organic substances regarded as monomeric constituents of humus were examined for the production of alkyl iodides. Two possible reaction pathways for the chemical formation of alkyl iodides are discussed. As humic acids and iron(III) are widespread in the terrestrial environment, and the concentration of iodide in soil is strongly enriched (compared to seawater), this soil source of naturally occurring organoiodides is suggested to contribute significantly to the input of iodine into the troposphere.     

Mixed-species shoaling in fish: the sensory mechanisms and costs of shoal choice

The mechanisms and functions of mixed-species shoaling were investigated in two sympatric species of cyprinids, the chub and the European minnow, from the river Wharfe where they comprised approximately 70% of all year 0+ fish over a 20-year survey. Chub preferred conspecific shoals over heterospecific ones with olfactory cues being more important than visual ones for shoal choice. This preference was consistent with measurements of length:flank area ratios and length:weight ratios which suggest that both species are similar in appearance. When presented with mixed-species shoals, chub increased the percentage time spent with stimulus shoals with increasing proportions of conspecifics. Feeding experiments suggest that the preference for conspecific shoals is driven by interspecific competition (with minnows out-competing similar-sized chub) and the oddity effect. The importance of this work in the context of species assortment in free-ranging shoals is discussed.