Farmers’ Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers’ lives. Farmers’ perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers’ perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers’ perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family’s lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government’s, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.     

Tillage and field scale controls on greenhouse gas emissions

There is a lack of understanding of how associations among soil properties and management-induced changes control the variability of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soil. We performed a laboratory investigation to quantify relationships between GHG emissions and soil indicators in an irrigated agricultural field under standard tillage (ST) and a field recently converted (2 yr) to no-tillage (NT). Soil cores (15-cm depth) were incubated at 25 degrees C at field moisture content and 75% water holding capacity. Principal component analysis (PCA) identified that most of the variation of the measured soil properties was related to differences in soil C and N and soil water conditions under ST, but soil texture and bulk density under NT. This trend became more apparent after irrigation. However, principal component regression (PCR) suggested that soil physical properties or total C and N were less important in controlling GHG emissions across tillage systems. The CO2 flux was more strongly determined by microbial biomass under ST and inorganic N content under NT than soil physical properties. Similarly, N2O and CH4 fluxes were predominantly controlled by NO3- content and labile C and N availability in both ST and NT soils at field moisture content, and NH4+ content after irrigation. Our study indicates that the field-scale variability of GHG emissions is controlled primarily by biochemical parameters rather than physical parameters. Differences in the availability and type of C and N sources for microbial activity as affected by tillage and irrigation develop different levels and combinations of field-scale controls on GHG emissions.     

Interdisciplinary knowledge integration through group model building: recognizing dualities and triadizing the conversation

As part of the inquiry into managing an interdisciplinary research process on adaptive water governance, we investigated the process of group model building (GMB) and, more specifically, the role of Unified Modeling Language (UML) in this process. An analysis of group interaction reveals several tensions in the process of knowledge integration, which can be grouped into three overarching dualities: ‘simplicity versus complexity’, ‘constraining versus containing’ and ‘defining versus refining’. As group members take different positions with regard to these dualities, these represent sources of tension and potential ‘stuckness’ of the GMB. Hence the question arises how the group can manage duality in ways that take the GMB beyond its opposing forces. We suggest that knowledge integration processes may benefit from early recognition of the dualities at hand and strategies aimed at creating ‘thirdness’, including some suggestions on the concrete forms such ‘thirdness’ may take.     

农场协作以提高可持续发展力

本文表明农场主之间的联合经营体(partnership arrangements)可能是保障农场经济生存能力和提高效益的途径之一.本文讨论了三种不同协作类型的经验分析,并强调了与协作经营关联的环境改善.在第一个案例中,对牛奶场和种植农场的协作进行了分析,结果表明多样化的提高和轮作具有实质的潜在效益,当协作包括机械时,其潜在效益更高.第二个例子论及生猪育崽和精饲管理的外部综合条件.协作利润源于生物因子和技术因子两方面,诸如提高生长率和增加猪舍的利用率等.最后,本文对一组种植农场协作进行了评估,认为效益的增加主要得益于机械费用的减少和/或来自其它因素的收益,如轮作和管理、营销策略等的改善.     

Split-second escape decisions in blue tits (Parus caeruleus)

Bird mortality is heavily affected by birds of prey. Under attack, take-off is crucial for survival and even minor mistakes in initial escape response can have devastating consequences. Birds may respond differently depending on the character of the predator's attack and these split-second decisions were studied using a model merlin (Falco columbarius) that attacked feeding blue tits (Parus caeruleus) from two different attack angles in two different speeds. When attacked from a low attack angle they took off more steeply than when attacked from a high angle. This is the first study to show that escape behaviour also depends on predator attack speed. The blue tits responded to a high-speed attack by dodging sideways more often than when attacked at a low speed. Escape speed was not significantly affected by the different treatments. Although they have only a split-second before escaping an attack, blue tits do adjust their escape strategy to the prevailing attack conditions.     

Effect of Aging on Brain Injury Prediction in Rotational Head Trauma—A Parameter Study with a Rat Finite Element Model

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the possible effects of age-related intracranial changes on the potential outcome of diffuse axonal injuries and acute subdural hematoma under rotational head loading.

Methods: A simulation-based parametric study was conducted using an updated and validated finite element model of a rat head. The validation included a comparison of predicted brain cortex sliding with respect to the skull. Further, model material properties were modified to account for aging; predicted tissue strains were compared with experimental data in which groups of rats in 2 different lifecycle stages, young adult and mature adult, were subjected to rotational trauma. For the parameter study, 2 age-dependent factors—brain volume and region-specific brain material properties—were implemented into the model. The models young adult and old age were subjected to several injurious and subinjurious sagittal plane rotational acceleration levels.

Results: Sequential analysis of the simulated trauma progression indicates that an increase in acute subdural hematoma injury risk indicator occurs at an early stage of the trauma, whereas an increase in diffuse axonal injury risk indicators occurs at a later stage. Tissue stiffening from young adult to mature adult rats produced an increase in strain-based thresholds accompanied by a wider spread of strain distribution toward the rear part of the brain, consistent with rotational trauma experiments with young adult and mature adult rats. Young adult to old age brain tissue softening and brain atrophy resulted in an increase in diffuse axonal injuries and acute subdural hematoma injury risk indicators, respectively.

Conclusions: The findings presented in this study suggest that age-specific injury thresholds should be developed to enable the development of superior restraint systems for the elderly. The findings also motivate other further studies on age-dependency of head trauma.     

Climate Policy to Defeat the Green Paradox

Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO₂ emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of ‘backfiring’ and actually increasing CO₂ emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests.