Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

Review and assessment of models used to predict the fate of radionuclides in lakes

A variety of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water ecosystems have been developed and tested during recent decades within the framework of many international research projects. These models have been implemented in Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for assisting the appropriate management of fresh water bodies contaminated by radionuclides. The assessment of the state-of-the-art and the consolidation of these CDSSs has been envisaged, by the scientific community, as a primary necessity for the rationalisation of the sector. The classification of the approaches of the various models, the determination of their essential features, the identification of similarities and differences among them and the definition of their application domains are all essential for the harmonisation of the existing CDSSs and for the possible development and improvement of reference models that can be widely applied in different environmental conditions. The present paper summarises the results of the assessment and evaluation of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in lacustrine ecosystems. Such models were developed and tested within major projects financed by the European Commission during its 4th Framework Programme (1994-1998). The work done during the recent decades by many modellers at an international level has produced some consolidated results that are widely accepted by most experts. Nevertheless, some new results have arisen from recent studies and certain model improvements are still necessary.     

Photolysis of atrazine and ametryne herbicides in Barbados sugar cane plantation soils and water

The photodegradation kinetics of atrazine (2-chloro-6-(ethylamino)-4-isopropylamino-1,3,5-triazine) and ametryne (2-methylthio-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine), in fresh and coastal salt water from Barbados, were measured under irradiation with artificial solar and UV254-radiation. The first-order rate constants were greater for ametryne than for atrazine, and the rates were reduced in seawater relative to fresh water, and in soil slurries relative to fresh water. However, rates were accelerated in the presence of iron(III) at pH 3 due to photo-Fenton type processes. This rate enhancement was reduced at ambient pH values (pH 7-7.5) representative of surface water in Barbados. These results have important implications for the relative persistence of these contaminants in aquatic environments in tropical areas.     

Environmental Health Policy: Analytic “Framing” of the Great Lakes Picture

/ The International Joint Commission (IJC) has overseen the implementation of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between Canada and the United States for 25 years. Part of its mandate has been to facilitate international cooperation among a diversity of stakeholders focusing on the "waters" and the "ecosystem." In the 1970s policy focused on phosphorus reduction and individual contaminants, with some efforts (after 1978) to take an ecosystem (ecological perspectives) approach. In the last 15 years human health effects from (real and perceived) environmental causes have received considerable recognition. By contrast, less concern has been expressed for what is traditionally considered "environment" issues (such as protecting fish species). This shift at the policy level is well illustrated in the manner in which human health is increasingly used as a way for mobilizing environmental agendas. This paper analyzes nine IJC biennial reports to track how the framing of Great Lakes issues has shifted from concern for its waters to concern for human neurobehavior and reproductive systems. Frame analysis is used to conceptualize the controversies that are expressed through the Great Lakes policy documents. The analysis of the reports also reveals a shift in operational frames, used by the IJC to mobilize decision-makers into action.     

The Relationship of Ecosystem Management to NEPA and Its Goals

/ The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) was intended to promote a systematic, comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach to planning and decisionmaking, including the integration of the natural and social sciences and the design arts. NEPA critics have cited three key shortcomings in its implementation: (1) a lack of engagement with the NEPA process early in the planning process through interdisciplinary collaboration; (2) a lack of rigorous science and the incorporation of ecological principles and techniques; and (3) a lack of emphasis on the Act's substantive goals and objectives. In recent years and independent of NEPA, a policy of ecosystem management has been developed, which represents a fundamental change from a fragmented, incremental planning and management approach to a holistic, comprehensive, interdisciplinary land and resource management effort. We postulate that by incorporating ecosystem management principles in their planning and decisionmaking, federal agencies can address the shortcomings in NEPA implementation and move closer to NEPA's intent. A case analysis of EISs prepared by the USDA Forest Service before and after adopting an ecosystem management approach supports our hypothesis.     

Risk perception and trust in the context of urban brownfields

Data are reported from a postal questionnaire completed by 747 residents of two urban local authority areas within which there were sites of brownfield land with significant levels of contamination. Respondents rated their perceptions of the extent to which their neighbourhood and own home were relatively vulnerable to contamination, their concern about possible effects of contamination, their satisfaction with their council in terms of consultation with residents on housing and development issues, and their trust in their council with respect to contaminated land risks. Satisfaction with, and trust in, the council was generally low in both areas, and especially so among those who perceived themselves to be more vulnerable to contamination. Nonetheless, dissatisfaction was less marked in the area where the local authority, according to background information, had pursued a more open and proactive style of risk communication and consultation with residents. The main predictors of trust, across both areas, were perceptions that the council was openly prepared to tell residents what they knew, and that the council had residents’ interests at heart. Implications are discussed for the impact of different modes of risk communication on trust.     

Monitored natural attenuation forum: The case for abiotic MNA

The environmental fate and transport of chlorinated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is controlled by the physical and chemical properties of the compound and the nature of the subsurface media through which the compound is migrating. Several processes (advection, dispersion, diffusion, biodegradation, and abiotic degradation, to name a few) result in a reduction in concentration and/or mass of contaminants in groundwater. Of these processes, biodegradation is often considered the dominant destructive attenuation mechanism for chlorinated VOCs. However, chlorinated VOCs can also degrade through abiotic processes and, in some cases, may be the primary or only destructive process occurring. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Remediation with cyclodextrin: Recovery of the remedial agent by membrane filtration

Cyclodextrin‐enhanced flushing of contaminants from the subsurface is a promising innovative remediation technology. It will become more economically viable at more sites if methods can be developed to recover and reconcentrate the cyclodextrin solution after it has been flushed through an aquifer. The goal of this study was to determine if membrane technology is capable of meeting that need. Five membranes with different material properties were tested for this purpose in the laboratory. The results of these tests indicate that there are large differences both in the efficiency of these membranes to extract hydroxpropyl‐β‐cyclodextrin (HPCD) and their stability when exposed to trichloroethylene (TCE) at concentrations near aqueous solubility. Not only does the molecular weigh cutoff (MWCO) of a membrane determine if HPCD can be retained, but crucial selection criteria are the membrane's resistance and compatibility with TCE. Of the five membrane materials tested, only two (polymer composite membrane and polysulfone) met both these requirements. The polymer composite membrane (MPF‐44) showed reliable and stable HPCD recoveries (>95 percent) even when exposed to high TCE concentrations. The polysulfone membrane showed high HPCD recoveries, 88.5 ± 0.4 percent to 97 percent ±1 percent for ultrafiltration and nanofiltration membranes, respectively. However, membrane swelling and deterioration became a problem at high TCE concentrations (>1,000 mg/L). These problems diminished when the TCE concentration was less than 1 mg/L. Field tests demonstrated that batch mode treatment by ultrafiltration doubled the cyclodextrin concentration from 5 to 10 percent within three hours at a constant operating pressure of 13 psi. Under continuous single‐pass treatment conditions, cyclodextrin concentration also increased, although the rate of increase was much smaller than in batch mode. Overall, these tests showed that cyclodextrin recovery is possible under field conditions. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

CO2 storage capacity estimation: Methodology and gaps

Implementation of CO₂ capture and geological storage (CCGS) technology at the scale needed to achieve a significant and meaningful reduction in CO₂ emissions requires knowledge of the available CO₂ storage capacity. CO₂ storage capacity assessments may be conducted at various scales—in decreasing order of size and increasing order of resolution: country, basin, regional, local and site-specific. Estimation of the CO₂ storage capacity in depleted oil and gas reservoirs is straightforward and is based on recoverable reserves, reservoir properties and in situ CO₂ characteristics. In the case of CO₂-EOR, the CO₂ storage capacity can be roughly evaluated on the basis of worldwide field experience or more accurately through numerical simulations. Determination of the theoretical CO₂ storage capacity in coal beds is based on coal thickness and CO₂ adsorption isotherms, and recovery and completion factors. Evaluation of the CO₂ storage capacity in deep saline aquifers is very complex because four trapping mechanisms that act at different rates are involved and, at times, all mechanisms may be operating simultaneously. The level of detail and resolution required in the data make reliable and accurate estimation of CO₂ storage capacity in deep saline aquifers practical only at the local and site-specific scales. This paper follows a previous one on issues and development of standards for CO₂ storage capacity estimation, and provides a clear set of definitions and methodologies for the assessment of CO₂ storage capacity in geological media. Notwithstanding the defined methodologies suggested for estimating CO₂ storage capacity, major challenges lie ahead because of lack of data, particularly for coal beds and deep saline aquifers, lack of knowledge about the coefficients that reduce storage capacity from theoretical to effective and to practical, and lack of knowledge about the interplay between various trapping mechanisms at work in deep saline aquifers.