Review and assessment of models for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers

The present paper summarises the results of the review and assessment of state-of-the-art models developed for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers. The different approaches of the models to predict the behaviour of radionuclides in lotic ecosystems are presented and compared. The models were classified and evaluated according to their main methodological approaches. The results of an exercise of model application to specific contamination scenarios aimed at assessing and comparing the model performances were described. A critical evaluation and analysis of the uncertainty of the models was carried out. The main factors influencing the inherent uncertainty of the models, such as the incompleteness of the actual knowledge and the intrinsic environmental and biological variability of the processes controlling the behaviour of radionuclides in rivers, are analysed.     

Patterns of drinking four weeks prior to an alcohol-related vehicular crash

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of the study was to determine if drinking patterns on the days immediately prior to an alcohol-related motor vehicle crash (ARMVC) were significantly different than drinking patterns in the weeks prior to the crash. METHODS: Following ARMVC, 187 hospitalized non-alcohol dependent young-adults (43 females, 144 males) were enrolled. Mean age was 29.03 years, mean blood alcohol level was 165.18 mg/dL, and mean injury severity score was 10.50. When alcohol-free, subjects were interviewed by nurse clinicians to determine the quantity/frequency of alcohol consumption during the 28 days prior to the crash. Subjects reported the number of standard drinks using the Timeline Followback procedure. Total drinks/day were determined, with day 1 considered 4 weeks prior to the crash and day 28 the day of the crash. A random-intercepts general linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to test the effect of several covariates (segment 1 [days 1-26], segment 2 [days 27-28], age, sex, race, holiday/non-holiday period, driver/passenger status, and weekend/weekday crash) on the amount of standard drinks/day. RESULTS: There was no significant interaction among the covariates. The only significant predictors of drinks/day were segment 2 (b = .322, p < .0001) and gender (b = -.221, p = .016). The positive, statistically significant slope for segment 2 indicated an increase in consumption of drinks/day in the two-day period prior to the ARMVC and the negative slope for gender indicated greater consumption of drinks/day for men than women. CONCLUSION: Persons injured in an ARMVC had a significant increase in alcohol consumption on the day before and the day of vehicular crashes (days 27 and 28) as compared to the first 26 days in the 28-day period preceding the crash. When non-alcohol-dependent subjects are counseled to reduce their risk of traffic crashes, they should be alerted that when their patterns of drinking change, they are at higher risk than usual for a crash.     

Handling intensity and the short- and long-term survival of elephant seals: addressing and quantifying research effects on wild animals

This study addresses the consequences of repeated human handling on the survival of an endangered phocid, the southern elephant seal and the implications for wildlife research. Southern elephant seal pups were repeatedly handled during the first six weeks of their lives. The possibility that such anthropogenic research may have altered the very parameters that were being investigated is a topical and relevant study area that we address here. Our results show that there were no measurable effects on pups that were repeatedly handled and subjected to invasive research methods with respect to survivorship in the short term (the 24-day nursing period) nor in the long term (the first year of life and beyond) and hence fitness one year after handling. In support of this conclusion we were unable to detect any significant differences in the survival rates of the most intensively handled seals and the least intensively handled seals.     

Habitat fragmentation and effects of herbivore (howler monkey) abundances on bird species richness

Habitat fragmentation can alter herbivore abundances, potentially causing changes in the plant community that can propagate through the food web and eventually influence other important taxonomic groups such as birds. Here we test the relationship between the density of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus) and bird species richness on a large set of recently isolated land-bridge islands in Lago Guri, Venezuela (n = 29 islands). Several of these islands host relict populations of howler monkeys at densities up to more than 30 times greater than those on the mainland. These "hyperabundant" herbivores previously have been shown to have a strong positive influence on aboveground plant productivity. We predicted that this should lead to a positive, indirect effect of howler monkey density on bird species richness. After accounting for passive sampling (the tendency for species richness to be positively associated with island area, regardless of differences in habitat quality) we found a significant positive correlation between howler monkey density and bird species richness. A path analysis incorporating data on tree growth rates from a subset of islands (n = 9) supported the hypothesis that the effect of howler monkeys on the resident bird communities is indirect and is mediated through changes in plant productivity and habitat quality. These results highlight the potential for disparate taxonomic groups to be related through indirect interactions and trophic cascades.     

Modeling the beta diversity of coral reefs

Quantifying the beta diversity (species replacement along spatiotemporal gradients) of ecosystems is important for understanding and conserving patterns of biodiversity. However, virtually all studies of beta diversity focus on one-dimensional transects orientated along a specific environmental gradient that is defined a priori. By ignoring a second spatial dimension and the associated changes in species composition and environmental gradients, this approach may provide limited insight into the full pattern of beta diversity. Here, we use remotely sensed imagery to quantify beta diversity continuously, in two dimensions, and at multiple scales across an entire tropical marine seascape. We then show that beta diversity can be modeled (0.852 > or = r2 > or = 0.590) at spatial scales between 0.5 and 5.0 km2, using the environmental variables of mean and variance of depth and wave exposure. Beta diversity, quantified within a "window" of a given size, is positively correlated to the range of environmental conditions within that window. For example, beta diversity increases with increasing variance of depth. By analyzing such relationships across seascapes, this study provides a framework for a range of disparate coral reef literature including studies of zonation, diversity, and disturbance. Using supporting evidence from soft-bottom communities, we hypothesize that depth will be an important variable for modeling beta diversity in a range of marine systems. We discuss the implications of our results for the design of marine reserves.     

Jellyfish aggregations and leatherback turtle foraging patterns in a temperate coastal environment

Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) are obligate predators of gelatinous zooplankton. However, the spatial relationship between predator and prey remains poorly understood beyond sporadic and localized reports. To examine how jellyfish (Phylum Cnidaria: Orders Semaeostomeae and Rhizostomeae) might drive the broad-scale distribution of this wide ranging species, we employed aerial surveys to map jellyfish throughout a temperate coastal shelf area bordering the northeast Atlantic. Previously unknown, consistent aggregations of Rhizostoma octopus extending over tens of square kilometers were identified in distinct coastal "hotspots" during consecutive years (2003-2005). Examination of retrospective sightings data (>50 yr) suggested that 22.5% of leatherback distribution could be explained by these hotspots, with the inference that these coastal features may be sufficiently consistent in space and time to drive long-term foraging associations.     

Adding infection to injury: synergistic effects of predation and parasitism on amphibian malformations

We explored the importance of interactions between parasite infection and predation in driving an emerging phenomenon of conservation importance: amphibian limb malformations. We suggest that injury resulting from intraspecific predation in combination with trematode infection contributes to the frequency and severity of malformations in salamanders. By integrating field surveys and experiments, we evaluated the individual and combined effects of conspecific attack and parasite (Ribeiroia ondatrae) infection on limb development of long-toed salamanders (Ambystoma macrodactylum). In the absence of Ribeiroia, abnormalities involved missing digits, feet, or limbs and were similar to those produced by cannibalistic attack in experimental trials. At field sites that supported Ribeiroia, malformations were dominated by extra limbs and digits. Correspondingly, laboratory exposure of larval salamanders to Ribeiroia cercariae over a 30-day period induced high frequencies of malformations, including extra digits, extra limbs, cutaneous fusion, and micromelia. However, salamander limbs exposed to both injury and infection exhibited 3-5 times more abnormalities than those exposed to either factor alone. Infection also caused significant delays in limb regeneration and time-to-metamorphosis. Taken together, these results help to explain malformation patterns observed in natural salamander populations while emphasizing the importance of interactions between parasitism and predation in driving disease.