Confronting Management Challenges in Highly Uncertain Natural Resource Systems: a Robustness–Vulnerability Trade-off Approach

This paper presents a framework for the study of policy implementation in highly uncertain natural resource systems in which uncertainty cannot be characterized by probability distributions. We apply the framework to parametric uncertainty in the traditional Gordon–Schaefer model of a fishery to illustrate how performance can be sacrificed (traded-off) for reduced sensitivity and hence increased robustness, with respect to model parameter uncertainty. With sufficient data, our robustness–vulnerability analysis provides tools to discuss policy options. When less data are available, it can be used to inform the early stages of a learning process. Several key insights emerge from this analysis: (1) the classic optimal control policy can be very sensitive to parametric uncertainty, (2) even mild robustness properties are difficult to achieve for the simple Gordon–Schaefer model, and (3) achieving increased robustness with respect to some parameters (e.g., biological parameters) necessarily results in increased sensitivity (decreased robustness) with respect to other parameters (e.g., economic parameters). We thus illustrate fundamental robustness–vulnerability trade-offs and the limits to robust natural resource management. Finally, we use the framework to explore the effects of infrequent sampling and delays on policy performance.     

The fate of steroid estrogens: partitioning during wastewater treatment and onto river sediments

The partitioning of steroid estrogens in wastewater treatment and receiving waters is likely to influence their discharge to, and persistence in, the environment. This study investigated the partitioning behaviour of steroid estrogens in both laboratory and field studies. Partitioning onto activated sludge from laboratory-scale Husmann units was rapid with equilibrium achieved after 1 h. Sorption isotherms and Kd values decreased in the order 17??-ethinyl estradiol > 17??-estradiol > estrone > estriol without a sorption limit being achieved (1/n?>1). Samples from a wastewater treatment works indicated no accumulation of steroid estrogens in solids from primary or secondary biological treatment, however, a range of steroid estrogens were identified in sediment samples from the River Thames. This would indicate that partitioning in the environment may play a role in the long-term fate of estrogens, with an indication that they will be recalcitrant in anaerobic conditions.     

Advanced REACH Tool (ART): calibration of the mechanistic model

The mechanistic model of the Advanced Reach Tool (ART) provides a relative ranking of exposure levels from different scenarios. The objectives of the calibration described in this paper are threefold: to study whether the mechanistic model scores are accurately ranked in relation to exposure measurements; to enable the mechanistic model to estimate actual exposure levels rather than relative scores; and to provide a method of quantifying model uncertainty. Stringent data quality guidelines were applied to the collated data. Linear mixed effects models were used to evaluate the association between relative ART model scores and measurements. A random scenario and company component of variance were introduced to reflect the model uncertainty. Stratified analyses were conducted for different forms of exposure (abrasive dust, dust, vapours and mists). In total more than 2000 good quality measurements were available for the calibration of the mechanistic model. The calibration showed that after calibration the mechanistic model of ART was able to estimate geometric mean (GM) exposure levels with 90% confidence for a given scenario to lie within a factor between two and six of the measured GM depending upon the form of exposure.     

Use of pharmaceuticals and pesticides to constrain nutrient sources in coastal groundwater of northwestern Long Island, New York, USA

In developed, non-agricultural, unsewered areas, septic systems and fertilizer application to lawns and gardens represent two major sources of nitrogen to coastal groundwater, in addition to atmospheric input. This study was designed to distinguish between these two possible nitrogen sources by analyzing groundwater samples for pharmaceutical residuals, because fertilizers do not contain any of these pharmaceuticals, but domestic wastewater commonly does. In addition, several herbicides and insecticides used in lawn treatment were analyzed as indicators of nitrogen delivery to groundwater from fertilizers. Groundwater samples were taken through piezometres at shoreline sites in unsewered areas surrounding Northport Harbor and in sewered areas adjacent to Manhasset Bay (hereafter referred to as "Northport" and "Manhasset", respectively), both in northwestern Long Island, USA. Excessive nitrogen loading has led to reduced dissolved oxygen concentrations in Long Island Sound, and the groundwater contribution to the nitrogen budget is poorly constrained. The frequent detection of the anticonvulsant compound carbamazepine in groundwater samples of the Northport Harbor area (unsewered), together with the fact that few pesticides associated with lawn applications were detected, suggests that wastewater input and atmospheric input are the likely sources of nitrogen in the Northport groundwater. High concentrations of nitrogen were also detected in the Manhasset (sewered) groundwater. The low detection frequency and concentration of carbamazepine, however, suggest that the sewer system effectively intercepts nitrogen from wastewater there. The likely sources of nitrogen in the Manhasset groundwater are atmospheric deposition and lawn fertilizers, as this area is densely populated.     

Distribution and source of microplastics in China's second largest reservoir - Danjiangkou Reservoir

Fresh water microplastic pollution is of pressing concern globally, but its distribution and sources in reservoirs are poorly documented. Danjiangkou Reservoir is the second largest reservoir in China and is divided into the Han Reservoir and Dan Reservoir. In this work, microplastic abundances and morphological characteristics of the reservoir were investigated. The microplastic abundance of 15 main tributaries of the reservoir was also measured. The vertical distribution (in water column and sediment), horizontal distribution (in Han Reservoir and Dan Reservoir) and source of microplastics were analyzed. Microplastics accumulated in the middle layer of the reservoir, and the size and color of the microplastic particles changed from the surface to the bottom, which implies that surveys of surface water are not enough to determine the microplastic contamination for deep water reservoirs. In the surface water, the microplastic abundance in the Han Reservoir was lower than that in the Dan Reservoir (p < 0.05), but microplastic abundance did not differ significantly in the intermediate and bottom water. Tributaries were one of the main sources of microplastics for Han Reservoir but not for Dan Reservoir. Agricultural cultivation in the hydro-fluctuation belt might be an important source of microplastics in the Dan Reservoir, which should be given additional attention. The results of this study can provide valuable information for developing microplastic sampling strategies in deep water reservoirs. Further studies are recommended to investigate the process through which microplastics in the hydro-fluctuation belt enter the reservoir and the sinking behavior of microplastics in the reservoir.     

Contributions of common sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to soil contamination

Asphalt products, particularly sealants, are prepared using petroleum products that contain a com‐plex mixture of aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Clearly, these products are ubiquitous in urban environments, which raises an issue regard‐ing the potential for PAHs to be transported from parking lots to underlying or adjacent soil, surface‐water bodies, or groundwater. Based on a literature review, there are limited studies focus‐ing on this issue; however, the studies that have been published have fascinating conclusions. The literature shows, as expected, that asphalt‐based products contain PAHs. The highest PAH concen‐trations are present in asphalt sealants, particularly those manufactured using coal tar. Furthermore, due to the low solubility and high partition coefficients of PAHs, the potential for PAHs to leach from asphalt surfaces is negligible, which has been confirmed by leachability studies. Thus, there is little risk that PAHs will be present in stormwater runoff or leach into groundwater from asphalt‐paved areas in a dissolved form. However, asphalt pavement and sealants produce particulate matter that can contain concentrations of PAHs in the sub‐percent range (100s to 1,000s mg/kg total PAHs) that is transported in stormwater runoff. Some studies show that this can cause soil and sediment con‐tamination with total PAH concentrations in the range of 1 to 10 mg/kg. From a remediation per‐spective, many site cleanups are conducted to remediate the presence of PAHs to cleanup goals below 1 mg/kg or, in some cases, 0.1 mg/kg or lower. From a total risk perspective, remediating sites to low PAH cleanup goals may be unwarranted in light of the risk of transportable PAHs produced from paved parking surfaces. In other words, is it reasonable to conduct a cleanup to remediate low PAH concentrations and then redevelop the area with asphalt pavement and sealant, which may pose a greater PAH‐related risk? © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The production, use and quality of sewage sludge in Denmark

In Denmark, the production of municipal sewage sludge decreased from approximately 170,000 ton d.m. in 1994 to 140,000 ton d.m. in 2002. The sludge is handled and treated in a number of ways. The quality of Danish sludge has steadily improved since the middle of the 1980s, when the first set of quality criteria for heavy metals was introduced. In 1997, cut-off criteria for the organic pollutants, LAS, DEHP, nonylphenol and PAHs were introduced. Effective control from authorities, voluntary phasing out agreements with industry, improved source identification tools, better handling and after-care methods have in combination with higher waste duties led to a significant reduction in the sludge level of especially cadmium, mercury, chromium, LAS and nonylphenol. The increased quality demand has, nevertheless, also led to a minor reduction in the use of sewage sludge as organic fertiliser on agricultural land.     

A simple semi-empirical model for predicting missing carbon monoxide concentrations

Carbon monoxide monitoring using continuous samplers is carried out in most major urban centres in the world and generally forms the basis for air quality assessments. Such assessments become less reliable as the proportion of data missing due to equipment failure and periods of calibration increases. This paper presents a semi-empirical model for the prediction of atmospheric carbon monoxide concentrations near roads for the purpose of interpolating missing data without the need for any traffic or emissions information. The model produces reliable predictions while remaining computationally simple by being site-specifically optimized. The model was developed for, and evaluated at, both a suburban site and an inner city site in Hamilton, New Zealand. Model performance statistics were found to be significantly better than other simple methods of interpolation with little additional computational complexity.     

Evaluating the success of functional restoration after reintroduction of a lost avian pollinator

Conservation translocation is a common method for species recovery, for which one increasingly frequent objective is restoring lost ecological functions to promote ecosystem recovery. However, few conservation translocation programs explicitly state or monitor function as an objective, limiting the ability to test assumptions, learn from past efforts, and improve management. We evaluated whether translocations of hihi (Notiomystis cincta), a threatened New Zealand passerine, achieved their implicit objective of restoring lost pollination function. Through a pollinator-exclusion experiment, we quantified, with log response ratios (lnR), the effects of birds on fruit set and seed quality in hangehange (Geniostoma ligustrifolium), a native flowering shrub. We isolated the contributions of hihi by making comparisons across sites with and without hihi. Birds improved fruit set more at sites without hihi (lnR = 1.27) than sites with hihi (lnR = 0.50), suggesting other avian pollinators compensated for and even exceeded hihi contributions to fruit set. Although birds improved seed germination only at hihi sites (lnR = 0.22–0.41), plants at sites without hihi had germination rates similar to hihi sites because they produced 26% more filled seeds, regardless of pollination condition. Therefore, although our results showed hihi improved seed quality, they also highlighted the complexity of ecological functions. When an important species is lost, ecosystems may be able to achieve similar function through different means. Our results underscore the importance of stating and monitoring the ecological benefits of conservation translocations when functional restoration is a motivation to ensure these programs are achieving their objectives.     

Estimating change in annual timber products output using a stratified sampling with certainty design

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - A key aspect in understanding patterns in wood demand and harvesting activities is monitoring of timber products output by wood processing facilities....