A multispecies assessment of wildlife impacts on local community livelihoods

Conflicts between the interests of agriculture and wildlife conservation are a major threat to biodiversity and human well-being globally. Addressing such conflicts requires a thorough understanding of the impacts associated with living alongside protected wildlife. Despite this, most studies reporting on human–wildlife impacts and the strategies used to mitigate them focus on a single species, thus oversimplifying often complex systems of human–wildlife interactions. We sought to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of impacts by multiple co-occurring species on agricultural livelihoods in the eastern Okavango Delta Panhandle in northern Botswana through the use of a database of 3264 wildlife-incident reports recorded from 2009 to 2015 by the Department of Wildlife and National Parks. Eight species (African elephants [Loxodonta africana], hippopotamuses [Hippopotamus amphibious], lions [Panthera leo], cheetah [Acinonyx jubatus], African wild dogs [Lycaon pictus], hyenas [Crocuta crocuta], leopards [Panthera pardus], and crocodiles [Crocodylus niloticus]) appeared on incident reports, of which 56.5% were attributed to elephants. Most species were associated with only 1 type of damage (i.e., either crop damage or livestock loss). Carnivores were primarily implicated in incident reports related to livestock loss, particularly toward the end of the dry season (May–October). In contrast, herbivores were associated with crop-loss incidents during the wet season (November–April). Our results illustrate how local communities can face distinct livelihood challenges from different species at different times of the year. Such a multispecies assessment has important implications for the design of conservation interventions aimed at addressing the costs of living with wildlife and thereby mitigation of the underlying conservation conflict. Our spatiotemporal, multispecies approach is widely applicable to other regions where sustainable and long-term solutions to conservation conflicts are needed for local communities and biodiversity.     

The bean method as a tool to measure sensitive behavior

Conservationists need to measure human behavior to guide decisions and evaluate their impact. However, activities can be misreported and reporting accuracy may change following conservation interventions, making it hard to verify any apparent changes. Techniques for asking sensitive questions are increasingly integrated into survey designs to improve data quality, but some can be costly or hard for nonexperts to implement. We demonstrate a straightforward, low-cost approach, the bean method in which respondents give anonymous answers by adding a colored bean to a jar to denote a yes or no response. We applied the bean method to measure wild-meat hunting and trading over 2 years at a conservation-project (hunting reduction) site in Gola Forest, Liberia. We extended the technique to accommodate questions about hunting and meat-selling frequency. We compared responses given using the bean method and direct questioning for groups that did and did not participate in conservation interventions. Results from the bean method corresponded to those from direct questioning, and there was no indication of change in question sensitivity following conservation interventions. Estimates from both methods indicated that wild-meat trading decreased in project and nonproject households (from 36% to 20%) and that hunting decreased in 1 project group (38–28%). Where inconsistent answers were given (2–6% of respondents), differences were in both directions and were most likely attributable to measurement error. The bean method was quick and straightforward to administer in a low-literacy setting. We showed how it can be modified for answers of more than 2 categories and consider it a valuable tool that could be adapted for a wide range of conservation settings.     

Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.     

Contrasting effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on coral-associated reef fishes

Disturbance can result in the fragmentation and/or loss of suitable habitat, both of which can have important consequences for survival, species interactions, and resulting patterns of local diversity. However, effects of habitat loss and fragmentation are typically confounded during disturbance events, and previous attempts to determine their relative significance have proved ineffective. Here we experimentally manipulated live coral habitats to examine the potential independent and interactive effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on survival, abundance, and species richness of recruitment-stage, coral-associated reef fishes. Loss of 75% of live coral from experimental reefs resulted in low survival of a coral-associated damselfish and low abundance and richness of other recruits 16 weeks after habitat manipulations. In contrast, fragmentation had positive effects on damselfish survival and resulted in greater abundance and species richness of other recruits. We hypothesize that spacing of habitat through fragmentation weakens competition within and among species. Comparison of effect sizes over the course of the study period revealed that, in the first six weeks following habitat manipulations, the positive effects of fragmentation were at least four times stronger than the effects of habitat loss. This initial positive effect of fragmentation attenuated considerably after 16 weeks, whereas the negative effects of habitat loss increased in strength over time. There was little indication that the amount of habitat influenced the magnitude of the habitat fragmentation effect. Numerous studies have reported dramatic declines in coral reef fish abundance and diversity in response to disturbances that cause the loss and fragmentation of coral habitats. Our results suggest that these declines occur as a result of habitat loss, not habitat fragmentation. Positive fragmentation effects may actually buffer against the negative effects of habitat loss and contribute to the resistance of reef fish populations to declines in coral cover.     

Phytoremediation of landfill leachate

Leachate emissions from landfill sites are of concern, primarily due to their toxic impact when released unchecked into the environment, and the potential for landfill sites to generate leachate for many hundreds of years following closure. Consequently, economically and environmentally sustainable disposal options are a priority in waste management. One potential option is the use of soil-plant based remediation schemes. In many cases, using either trees (including short rotation coppice) or grassland, phytoremediation of leachate has been successful. However, there are a significant number of examples where phytoremediation has failed. Typically, this failure can be ascribed to excessive leachate application and poor management due to a fundamental lack of understanding of the plant-soil system. On balance, with careful management, phytoremediation can be viewed as a sustainable, cost effective and environmentally sound option which is capable of treating 250m(3)ha(-1)yr(-1). However, these schemes have a requirement for large land areas and must be capable of responding to changes in leachate quality and quantity, problems of scheme establishment and maintenance, continual environmental monitoring and seasonal patterns of plant growth. Although the fundamental underpinning science is well understood, further work is required to create long-term predictive remediation models, full environmental impact assessments, a complete life-cycle analysis and economic analyses for a wide range of landfill scenarios.     

Testing DayCent and DNDC model simulations of N2O fluxes and assessing the impacts of climate change on the gas flux and biomass production from a humid pasture

Simulation models are one of the approaches used to investigate greenhouse gas emissions and potential effects of global warming on terrestrial ecosystems. DayCent which is the daily time-step version of the CENTURY biogeochemical model, and DNDC (the DeNitrification–DeComposition model) were tested against observed nitrous oxide flux data from a field experiment on cut and extensively grazed pasture located at the Teagasc Oak Park Research Centre, Co. Carlow, Ireland. The soil was classified as a free draining sandy clay loam soil with a pH of 7.3 and a mean organic carbon and nitrogen content at 0–20 cm of 38 and 4.4 g kg^?1 dry soil, respectively. The aims of this study were to validate DayCent and DNDC models for estimating N₂O emissions from fertilized humid pasture, and to investigate the impacts of future climate change on N₂O fluxes and biomass production. Measurements of N₂O flux were carried out from November 2003 to November 2004 using static chambers. Three climate scenarios, a baseline of measured climatic data from the weather station at Carlow, and high and low temperature sensitivity scenarios predicted by the Community Climate Change Consortium For Ireland (C4I) based on the Hadley Centre Global Climate Model (HadCM₃) and the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario were investigated. DayCent predicted cumulative N₂O flux and biomass production under fertilized grass with relative deviations of +38% and (?23%) from the measured, respectively. However, DayCent performs poorly under the control plots, with flux relative deviation of (?57%) from the measured. Comparison between simulated and measured flux suggests that both DayCent model’s response to N fertilizer and simulated background flux need to be adjusted. DNDC overestimated the measured flux with relative deviations of +132 and +258% due to overestimation of the effects of SOC. DayCent, though requiring some calibration for Irish conditions, simulated N₂O fluxes more consistently than did DNDC. We used DayCent to estimate future fluxes of N₂O from this field. No significant differences were found between cumulative N₂O flux under climate change and baseline conditions. However, above-ground grass biomass was significantly increased from the baseline of 33 t ha^?1 to 45 (+34%) and 50 (+48%) t dry matter ha^?1 for the low and high temperature sensitivity scenario respectively. The increase in above-ground grass biomass was mainly due to the overall effects of high precipitation, temperature and CO₂ concentration. Our results indicate that because of high N demand by the vigorously growing grass, cumulative N₂O flux is not projected to increase significantly under climate change, unless more N is applied. This was observed for both the high and low temperature sensitivity scenarios.     

Multi-model vs. EPS-based ensemble atmospheric dispersion simulations: A quantitative assessment on the ETEX-1 tracer experiment case

Several techniques have been developed over the last decade for the ensemble treatment of atmospheric dispersion model predictions. Among them two have received most of the attention, the multi-model and the ensemble prediction system (EPS) modeling. The multi-model approach relies on model simulations produced by different atmospheric dispersion models using meteorological data from potentially different weather prediction systems. The EPS-based ensemble is generated by running a single atmospheric dispersion model with the ensemble weather prediction members. In the paper we compare both approaches with the help of statistical indicators, using the simulations performed for the ETEX-1 tracer experiment. Both ensembles are also evaluated against measurement data. Among the most relevant results is that the multi-model median and the mean of EPS-based ensemble produced the best results, hence we consider a combination of multi-model and EPS-based approaches as an interesting suggestion for further research.     

Nitrogen mediates above-ground effects of ozone but not below-ground effects in a rhizomatous sedge

Ozone and atmospheric nitrogen are co-occurring pollutants with adverse effects on natural grassland vegetation. Plants of the rhizomatous sedge Carex arenaria were exposed to four ozone regimes representing increasing background concentrations (background-peak): 10-30, 35-55, 60-80 and 85-105 ppb ozone at two nitrogen levels: 12 and 100 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Ozone increased the number and proportion of senesced leaves, but not overall leaf number. There was a clear nitrogen × ozone interaction with high nitrogen reducing proportional senescence in each treatment and increasing the ozone dose (AOT40) at which enhanced senescence occurred. Ozone reduced total biomass due to significant effects on root biomass. There were no interactive effects on shoot:root ratio. Rhizome tissue N content was increased by both nitrogen and ozone. Results suggest that nitrogen mediates above-ground impacts of ozone but not impacts on below-ground resource translocation. This may lead to complex interactive effects between the two pollutants on natural vegetation.     

A European aerosol phenomenology – 3: Physical and chemical characteristics of particulate matter from 60 rural,urban, and kerbside sites across Europe

This paper synthesizes data on aerosol (particulate matter, PM) physical and chemical characteristics, which were obtained over the past decade in aerosol research and monitoring activities at more than 60 natural background, rural, near-city, urban, and kerbside sites across Europe. The data include simultaneously measured PM₁₀ and/or PM_2.5 mass on the one hand, and aerosol particle number concentrations or PM chemistry on the other hand. The aerosol data presented in our previous works (Van Dingenen et al., 2004, Putaud et al., 2004) were updated and merged to those collected in the framework of the EU supported European Cooperation in the field of Scientific and Technical action COST633 (Particulate matter: Properties related to health effects). A number of conclusions from our previous studies were confirmed. There is no single ratio between PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ mass concentrations valid for all sites, although fairly constant ratios ranging from 0.5 to 0.9 are observed at most individual sites. There is no general correlation between PM mass and particle number concentrations, although particle number concentrations increase with PM_2.5 levels at most sites. The main constituents of both PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 are generally organic matter, sulfate and nitrate. Mineral dust can also be a major constituent of PM₁₀ at kerbside sites and in Southern Europe. There is a clear decreasing gradient in SO₄^2? and NO₃^? contribution to PM₁₀ when moving from rural to urban to kerbside sites. In contrast, the total carbon/PM₁₀ ratio increases from rural to kerbside sites. Some new conclusions were also drawn from this work: the ratio between ultrafine particle and total particle number concentration decreases with PM_2.5 concentration at all sites but one, and significant gradients in PM chemistry are observed when moving from Northwestern, to Southern to Central Europe. Compiling an even larger number of data sets would have further increased the significance of our conclusions, but collecting all the aerosol data sets obtained also through research projects remains a tedious task.