Statistical matching for conservation science

The awareness of the need for robust impact evaluations in conservation is growing and statistical matching techniques are increasingly being used to assess the impacts of conservation interventions. Used appropriately matching approaches are powerful tools, but they also pose potential pitfalls. We outlined important considerations and best practice when using matching in conservation science. We identified 3 steps in a matching analysis. First, develop a clear theory of change to inform selection of treatment and controls and that accounts for real-world complexities and potential spillover effects. Second, select the appropriate covariates and matching approach. Third, assess the quality of the matching by carrying out a series of checks. The second and third steps can be repeated and should be finalized before outcomes are explored. Future conservation impact evaluations could be improved by increased planning of evaluations alongside the intervention, better integration of qualitative methods, considering spillover effects at larger spatial scales, and more publication of preanalysis plans. Implementing these improvements will require more serious engagement of conservation scientists, practitioners, and funders to mainstream robust impact evaluations into conservation. We hope this article will improve the quality of evaluations and help direct future research to continue to improve the approaches on offer.     

Ammonia volatilization loss from surface applied livestock manure

Ammonia (NH₃) emission from livestock manures used in agriculture reduces N uptake by crops and negatively impacts air quality. This laboratory study was conducted to evaluate NH₃emission from different livestock manures applied to two soils: Candler fins sand (CFS; light-textured soil, pH 6.8 and field capacity soil water content of 70 g kg^{? 1}) from Lake Alfred, Florida and Ogeechee loamy sand (OLS; medium-textured soil, pH 5.2 and field capacity soil water content of 140 g kg^{? 1}) from Savannah, Georgia. Poultry litter (PL) collected from a poultry farm near Douglas, Georgia, and fresh solid separate of swine manure (SM) collected from a farm near Clinton, North Carolina were used. Each of the soil was weighed in 100 g sub samples and amended with either PL or SM at rates equivalent to either 0, 2.24, 5.60, 11.20, or 22.40 Mg ha^{? 1} in 1L Mason jars and incubated in the laboratory at field capacity soil water content for 19 days to monitor NH₃ volatilization. Results indicated a greater NH₃ loss from soils amended with SM compared to that with PL. The cumulative NH₃volatilization loss over 19 days ranged from 4 to 27% and 14 to 32% of total N applied as PL and SM, respectively. Volatilization of NH₃ was greater from light-textured CFS than that from medium-textured OLS. Volatilization loss increased with increasing rates of manure application. Ammonia volatilization was lower at night time than that during the day time. Differences in major factors such as soil water content, temperature, soil type and live stock manure type influenced the diurnal variation in volatilization loss of NH₃ from soils. A significant portion (> 50%) of cumulative NH₃ emission over 19 d occurred during the first 5–7 d following the application of livestock manures. Results of this study demonstrate that application of low rates of livestock manure (≤ 5.60 Mg ha^{? 1}) is recommended to minimize NH₃ emissions.     

Point-of-use water disinfection using UV light-emitting diodes to reduce bacterial contamination

The treatment process described in this research explores the impact of exposing water samples containing fecal coliforms to the radiation produced by single ultraviolet (UV) light-emitting diodes (LEDs) operating at 265 nm. UV LEDs are long lasting, compact in size and produce more efficient light output than traditional mercury-vapour bulbs, making them ideal for application in point-of-use disinfection systems, such as in remote areas. In this study, contaminated water samples containing either a pure culture of Escherichia coli or tertiary effluent from the City of Regina Wastewater Treatment Plant were used to study the application and efficiency of using UV LEDs for water disinfection. The results indicate that bacterial inactivation was achieved in a time-dependent manner, with 1- and 2.5-log E. coli reductions in water following 20 and 50 min of UV LED exposure, respectively. Ultraviolet radiation was less effective in reducing coliform bacteria in wastewater samples due to the elevated turbidity levels. Further work remains to be completed to optimize the application of UV LEDs for point-of-use disinfection systems; however, the results from this study support that bacterial inactivation using UV LEDs is possible, meriting further future technological development of the LEDs.     

An Upper Limit Analysis of Carbon Monoxide Monitoring in the United States

In performing carbon monoxide (CO) studies, the question is invariably raised as to whether available monitoring data are truly representative of the highest ambient 8-hr average CO levels experienced in major cities. The most practical means for such a determinate is to inventory the critical characteristics of monitor siting. The authors catalogued such data for the worst station in eight of the 12 counties measuring the highest number of CO violations in the nation.     

Nanoremediation and International Environmental Restoration Markets

Nanoscale zero‐valent iron (nZVI) is the most commonly used nanoremediation material. While there has been a reasonable level of application of nZVI technologies for in situ remediation in the United States, its utilization across Europe has been much more limited. There has been significant uncertainty about the balance between deployment risks and benefits for nanoparticles (NPs), which has affected the regulatory position in several countries. Some member states of the European Union (EU) take a strong precautionary view of the risks from the deployment of NPs into the subsurface, preventing the adoption of the technology. This article provides a risk–benefit assessment for nZVI based on published information and describes the steps that will be taken by a major European research project (NanoRem), as part of its work to provide a basis for better informed decision making in European environmental restoration markets. A key part of this process is dialogue between practitioners and researchers. NanoRem therefore has an active process of communication with different stakeholder networks (regulators, service providers, and site owners). NanoRem hopes to stimulate a consensus on appropriate use of nanoremediation and thereby stimulate effective technology transfer to the European remediation market. ©2015 The Authors     

The Trifinio Region: a case study of transboundary forest change in Central America

Strategic planning to increase forest cover in Central American transboundary areas of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor requires understanding land-cover and land-use change trends and drivers. We estimated forest cover change from remotely sensed land-cover and land-use classifications from 1986, 2001, and 2010, in the tri-national Trifinio Region, bordering El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Our analysis spanned subnational, national, regional, and protected border areas. We determined correlations with direct drivers of deforestation, developing a multilevel linear regression model. Higher population density significantly correlated with deforestation; coffee, agroforestry, and pasture replaced forests. The tri-national park retained forests compared to neighboring areas, but additionality requires more research. The literature on drivers suggests similar processes and factors in other tropical regions. Forest cover governance efficacy is highly variable. Results indicate relationship between governance and forest cover though more comprehensive understanding of this complex region is needed to determine their causality.     

Mutual information in the Tangled Nature model

We consider the concept of mutual information in ecological networks, and use this idea to analyse the Tangled Nature model of co-evolution. We show that this measure of correlation has two distinct behaviours depending on how we define the network in question: if we consider only the network of viable species this measure increases, whereas for the whole system it decreases. It is suggested that these are complimentary behaviours that show how ecosystems can become both more stable and better adapted.     

Modeling soil and plant phosphorus within DSSAT

The crop models in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) have served worldwide as a research tool for improving predictions of relationships between soil and plant nitrogen (N) and crop yield. However, without a phosphorus (P) simulation option, the applicability of the DSSAT crop models in P-deficient environments is limited. In this study, a soil-plant P model integrated to DSSAT was described, and results showing the ability of the model to mimic wide differences in maize responses to P in Ghana are presented as preliminary attempts to testing the model on highly weathered soils. The model simulates P transformations between soil inorganic labile, active and stable pools and soil organic microbial and stable pools. Plant growth is limited by P between two concentration thresholds that are species-specific optimum and minimum concentrations of P defined at different stages of plant growth. Phosphorus stress factors are computed to reduce photosynthesis, dry matter accumulation and dry matter partitioning. Testing on two highly weathered soils from Ghana over a wide range of N and P fertilizer application rates indicated that the P model achieved good predictability skill at one site (Kpeve) with a final grain yield root mean squared error (RMSE) of 535 kg ha⁻¹and a final biomass RMSE of 507 kg ha⁻¹. At the other site (Wa), the RMSE was 474 kg ha⁻¹ for final grain yield and 1675 kg ha⁻¹ for final biomass. A local sensitivity analysis indicated that under P-limiting conditions and no P fertilizer application, crop biomass, grain yield, and P uptake could be increased by over 0.10% due to organic P mineralization resulting from a 1% increase in organic carbon. It was also shown that the modeling philosophy that makes P in a root-free zone unavailable to plants resulted in a better agreement of simulated crop biomass and grain yield with field measurements. Because the complex soil P chemistry makes the availability of P to plants extremely variable, testing under a wider range of agro-ecological conditions is needed to complement the initial evaluation presented here, and extend the use of the DSSAT-P model to other P-deficient environments.     

A linked model of animal ecology and human behavior for the management of wildlife tourism

Wildlife tourism attractions are characterized as having intricately coupled human-wildlife interactions. Accordingly, the ability to mitigate negative impacts of tourism on wildlife necessitates research into the ecology of the system and of the human dimensions, since plans aimed at optimizing wildlife fitness must also be acceptable to tourists. We developed an integrated systems dynamics model for the management of tourist-stingray interactions at ‘Stingray City Sandbar’ (SCS), Cayman Islands. The model predicts the state of the tourism attraction over time in relation to stingray population size, stingray life expectancy, and tourist visitation under various management scenarios. Stingray population data in the model comprised growth rates and survival estimates (from mark-and-recapture data) and mortality estimates. Inputted changes in their respective rates under different management scenarios were informed by previous research. Original research on the demand of heterogeneous tourist segments for management regulations via a stated choice model was used to calculate changes in the tourist population growth rate from data supplied by the Caymanian government. The management attributes to which tourists were responsive also have anticipated effects on stingray ecology (migration and mortality), and vice versa, thus linking the two components. We found that the model's predictions over a 25-year time span were sensitive to the stingray population growth rate and alternate management options. Under certain management scenarios, it was possible to maximize both the tourist segment in favor of no management and stingray numbers while reducing stingray health. However, the most effective relative strategy included a reduction in visitor density, restricted stingray interactions, and an imposition of a small fee. Over time, although fewer stingrays were predicted to remain at SCS, they would live longer and experience fewer stochastic disease events, and the desirable tourist segment was predicted to predominate. By understanding how management will affect tourist activities and their subsequent impacts on both wildlife health and visitor satisfaction, one can explore the management alternatives that would optimize both.