Prioritization of Ecosystem Services Research: Tampa Bay Demonstration Project

The Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project (TBESDP) is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Ecosystem Services Research Program. The principal objectives of TBESDP are to (1) quantify the ecosystem services of the Tampa Bay watershed, (2) determine the value of ecosystem services to society, (3) predict the supply of ecosystem services under future scenarios of population growth and climate change, and (4) apply this knowledge through models and tools that will support the best informed environmental decisions possible. The scope and complexity of this project required intensive effort to establish which services can be quantified by applying existing models, data, and scientific literature and which services will require supporting research. Research priorities were assessed by: (1) developing and refining conceptual models of major ecosystems in the Tampa Bay region, (2) gathering input from stakeholders about the relative importance and values of various ecosystem services, (3) preparing and reviewing a bibliometric analysis of the volume of scientific literature relevant to the ecosystems and services of interest, and (4) evaluating an integrated analysis of importance, value, and availability of scientific information. This analysis led us to focus on two research priorities, seagrass-habitat functions as support for fishery production, and wetlands as regulators of water quality.     

The use of polymer compounds in the deposits from the combustion of briquettes in domestic heating as an identifier of fuel quality

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The utilisation of waste wood from furniture production brings new problems connected with an incomplete thermochemical decomposition of additives...     

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Combined effects of human pressures on Europe’s marine ecosystems

Marine ecosystems are under high demand for human use, giving concerns about how pressures from human activities may affect their structure, function, and status. In Europe, recent developments in mapping of marine habitats and human activities now enable a coherent spatial evaluation of potential combined effects of human activities. Results indicate that combined effects from multiple human pressures are spread to 96% of the European marine area, and more specifically that combined effects from physical disturbance are spread to 86% of the coastal area and 46% of the shelf area. We compare our approach with corresponding assessments at other spatial scales and validate our results with European-scale status assessments for coastal waters. Uncertainties and development points are identified. Still, the results suggest that Europe’s seas are widely disturbed, indicating potential discrepancy between ambitions for Blue Growth and the objective of achieving good environmental status within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.Supplementary informationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01482-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Abundance of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in the western Baltic,Belt Seas and Kattegat

In July 2012, a ship-board double-platform line-transect survey was conducted to assess harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) abundance in the Kattegat, Belt Seas and the Western Baltic. A total of 826 km of track lines were surveyed between the 2nd and 21st of July 2012, and 169 observations were made by the primary observers, comprising a total of 230 porpoises. Fifty-seven observations were identified as duplicate sightings observed by both tracker and primary observers and were used to correct for availability and perception bias of the primary detections. Using Mark–Recapture Distance Sampling analysis, we produced a model using the half-normal key function, including sightability as the only covariate to estimate the density and abundance of harbour porpoise within the 51,511 km² survey area. Estimated detection probability on the transect line, known as g(0), was at 0.571 (±0.074; CV = 0.130). Using a point independence model of the detection function, the abundance of harbour porpoises within the survey area was estimated at 40,475 animals (95 % CI 25,614–65,041, CV = 0.235) with an associated density of 0.786 animals km^?2 (95 % CI 0.498–1.242, CV = 0.235) and an average group size of 1.488 animals. These results reflect densities obtained during the SCANS surveys in 1994 and 2005, indicating no significant population trend in the area. However, it should be noted that the survey area covers more than one population and that results are therefore not necessarily reflecting local population trends. Until proper population borders are obtained, the abundance estimate provides baseline data for future monitoring and is an important input to the assessment of the conservation status of harbour porpoises in the area.     

Degradation of Polycaprolactone Modified with TPS or CaCO3 in Biotic/Abiotic Seawater

This paper is an investigation of the polymer degradation process in two types of seawater (with and without microorganisms) sourced from the Baltic Sea. The chosen polymeric materials were polycaprolactone modified with either thermoplastic starch (PCL/TPS?>?85%) or calcium carbonate (60% PCL/40% CaCO₃) compared directly against unmodified polycaprolactone. All samples were incubated for 28?weeks in seawater with and without microorganisms under laboratory conditions and analysed before and after the degradation process. Weight loss analysis, microscopic observations of polymer surfaces and tensile strength tests were used to determine the progress of polymer degradation. The experimental results obtained indicated, that in each of the experiments, degradation of tested polymeric samples occured. The process was more effective in seawater with microorganisms compared against systems without added microorganisms. The experiment in seawater demonstrated that modification of PCL with calcium carbonate did not encourage the degradation process; and in some circumstances inhibited it.     

Spatial variogram estimation from temporally aggregated seabird count data

Seabird abundance is an important indicator for assessing impact of human activities on the marine environment. However, data collection at sea is time consuming and surveys are carried out over several consecutive days for efficiency reasons. This study investigates the validity of aggregating those data over time to estimate a spatial variogram that is representative for spatial correlation in species abundance. For this purpose we simulate four-day surveys of seabird count data that contain spatial and temporal correlation arising from temporal changes in the spatial pattern of environmental conditions. Estimates of the aggregated spatial variogram are compared to a variogram that would arise when data were collected over a single day. The study reveals that, under changing environmental conditions over surveys days, aggregating data over a four-day survey increases both the non-spatial variation in the data and the scale of spatial correlation in seabird data. Next, the effect of using an aggregated variogram on the statistical power to test the significance of an impact is investigated. The impact concerns a case of establishing an offshore wind farm resulting in seabird displacement. The study shows that both overestimation and underestimation of statistical power occurs, with power estimates differing up to a factor of two. We conclude that the spatial variation in seabird abundance can be misrepresented by using temporally aggregated data. In impact studies, such misrepresentation can lead to erroneous assessments of the ability to detect impact.     

Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat

Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus S.) is a key species in the pelagic ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Most stocks of small pelagic species are characterized by natural, fishery-independent fluctuations, which make it difficult to predict stock development. Baltic sprat recruitment is highly variable, which can partly be related to climate-driven variability in hydrographic conditions. Results from experimental studies and field observations demonstrate that a number of important life history traits of sprat are affected by temperature, especially the survival and growth of early life stages. Projected climate-driven warming may impact important processes affecting various life stages of sprat, from survival and development during the egg and larval phases to the reproductive output of adults. This study presents a stage-based matrix model approach to simulate sprat population dynamics in relation to different climate change scenarios. Data obtained from experimental studies and field observations were used to estimate and incorporate stage-specific growth and survival rates into the model. Model-based estimates of population growth rate were affected most by changes in the transition probability of the feeding larval stage at all temperatures (+0, +2, +4, +6?°C). The maximum increase in population growth rate was expected when ambient temperature was elevated by 4?°C. Coupling our stage-based model and more complex, biophysical individual-based models may reveal the processes driving these expected climate-driven changes in Baltic Sea sprat population dynamics.     

Seasonal polyphenism in life history traits: time costs of direct development in a butterfly

Insects with two or more generations per year will generally experience different selection regimes depending on the season, and accordingly show seasonal polyphenisms. In butterflies, seasonal polyphenism has been shown with respect to morphology, life history characteristics and behaviour. In temperate bivoltine species, the directly developing generation is more time-constrained than the diapause generation, and this may affect various life history traits such as mating propensity (time from eclosion to mating). Here, we test whether mating propensity differs between generations in Pieris napi, along with several physiological parameters, i.e. male sex pheromone synthesis, and female ovigeny index and fecundity. As predicted, individuals of the directly developing generation—who have shorter time for pupal development—are more immature at eclosion; males take longer to synthesise the male sex pheromone after eclosion and take longer to mate than diapause generation males. Females show the same physiological pattern; the directly developing females lay fewer eggs than diapausing females during the first days of their life. Nevertheless, the directly developing females mate faster after eclosion than diapausing females, indicating substantial adult time stress in this generation and possibly an adaptive value of shortening the pre-reproductive period. Our study highlights how time stress can be predictably different between generations, affecting both life history and behaviour. By analysing several life history traits simultaneously, we adopt a multi-trait approach to examining how adaptations and developmental constraints likely interplay to shape these seasonal polyphenisms.     

Offspring sex ratios reflect lack of repayment by auxiliary males in a cooperatively breeding passerine

The repayment hypothesis posits that primary sex ratios in cooperative species should be biased towards the helping sex because these offspring “repay” a portion of their cost through helping behavior and therefore are less expensive to produce. However, many cooperatively breeding birds and mammals do not show the predicted bias in the primary sex ratio. Recent theoretical work has suggested that the repayment hypothesis should only hold when females gain a large fitness advantage from the presence of auxiliary adults in the group. When auxiliaries provide little or no fitness advantage, competition between relatives should lead to sex ratios biased towards the dispersing (non-helping) sex. We examined the benefits auxiliaries provide to females and corresponding offspring sex ratios in the red-backed fairy-wren (Malurus melanocephalus), a cooperatively breeding Australian bird with male auxiliary helpers. We found that auxiliaries provide little or no benefit to female reproductive success or survival. As predicted, the population primary sex ratio was biased towards daughters, the dispersing sex, and females with auxiliaries produced female-biased broods whereas females without auxiliaries produced unbiased broods. Moreover, offspring sex ratios were more strongly biased toward females in years when auxiliaries were more common in the population. These results suggest that offspring sex ratios are associated with competition among the non-dispersing sex in this species, and also that females may use cues to assess local breeding opportunities for their offspring.