Correlates of male mating success in great bustard leks: the effects of age, weight, and display effort

We examined how mating success varied in relation to age, weight, body size, and display behavior among great bustard Otis tarda males. The estimated mating success was strongly skewed, with 45% of adult males being involved in copulation attempts and only 9.7% actually seen copulating successfully. Unlike most birds, body size continued increasing in great bustards several years after reaching sexual maturity. Age, weight, and display effort were all significant and independent predictors of male mating success. The higher display effort involved performing longer full-display bouts. Older males could detach from the male flock earlier in the season as well as on each day and spend longer seasonal and daily periods displaying as solitary birds, which contributed to increase their mating success. In contrast, males weighing more did not invest more in display, which suggests that they could be recognized as dominants by other males and selected by females through assessment of their plumage sexual traits. In contrast to most other bird species, the system described for great bustards resembles that found in some lek-mating ungulates, where social rank is a complex trait determined by both age and mass, and as in these mammals, it suggests that sexual selection continues to favor a high male weight in this extremely sexually dimorphic species.     

In situ removal of arsenic from groundwater by using permeable reactive barriers of organic matter/limestone/zero-valent iron mixtures

In this study, two mixtures of municipal compost, limestone and, optionally, zero-valent iron were assessed in two column experiments on acid mine treatment. The effluent solution was systematically analysed throughout the experiment and precipitates from both columns were withdrawn for scanning electron microscopy, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, X-ray diffractometry analysis and, from the column containing zero-valent iron, solid digestion and sequential extraction analysis. The results showed that waters were cleaned of arsenic, metals and acidity, but chemical and morphological analysis suggested that metal removal was not due predominantly to biogenic sulphide generation but to pH increase, i.e. metal (oxy)hydroxide and carbonate precipitation. Retained arsenic and metal removal were clearly associated to co-precipitation with and/or sorption on iron and aluminum (oxy)hydroxides. An improvement on the arsenic removal efficiency was achieved when the filling mixture contained zero-valent iron. Values of arsenic concentrations were then always below 10 μg/L.     

Mitochondrial genomic divergence in coelacanths (Latimeria): slow rate of evolution or recent speciation?

Dating the divergence between the two known living species of coelacanths has remained a difficult issue because of the very ancient origin of this lineage of fish, which is more closely related to tetrapods than to other fishes. We sequenced the complete mitochondrial genome of a recently captured individual of the Indonesian coelacanth in order to solve this issue. Using an approach based on loglinear models, we studied the molecular divergence between the two species of coelacanths and three other pairs of species, one that has diverged recently (Pan) and two that have diverged more distantly in the past. The loglinear models showed that the divergence between the two species of coelacanths is not significantly different from the two species of Pan. A detailed gene by gene analysis of the patterns of nucleotide and amino acid substitutions between these two pairs of species further supports the similarity of these divergences. On the other hand, a molecular dating analysis suggested a much older origin of the two coelacanth species (between 20 and 30 million years ago). We discuss the potential reasons for this discrepancy. The analysis of new individuals of the Indonesian coelacanth will certainly help to solve this issue.     

Trade-offs between maternal foraging and fawn predation risk in an income breeder

The choice of neonatal hiding place is critical for ungulates adopting hiding anti-predator strategies, but the consequences of different decisions have rarely been evaluated with respect to offspring survival. First, we investigated how landscape-scale choices made by roe deer fawns and their mothers affected predation risk by red foxes in a forest–farmland mosaic in southeastern Norway. After, we examined the effect of site-specific characteristics and behaviour (i.e. visibility, mother–fawn distance and abundance of the predator’s main prey item—small rodents) on predation risk. The study of habitat use, selection and habitat-specific mortality revealed that roe deer utilised the landscape matrix in a functional way, with different habitats used for feeding, providing maternal care and as refugia from predation. Mothers faced a trade-off between foraging and offspring survival. At the landscape-scale decisions were primarily determined by maternal energetic constraints and only secondarily by risk avoidance. Indeed, forage-rich habitats were strongly selected notwithstanding the exceptionally high densities of rodents which increased fawn predation. At fine spatial scales, a high visibility of the mother was the major factor determining predation risk; however, mothers adjusted their behaviour to the level of risk at the bed site to minimise predation. Fawns selected both landscape-scale refugia and concealed bed sites, but failure to segregate from the main prey of red foxes led to higher predation. This study provides evidence for the occurrence of spatial heterogeneity in predation risk and shows that energetically stressed individuals can tackle the foraging-safety trade-off by adopting scale-dependent anti-predator responses.     

Female chacma baboons form strong, equitable, and enduring social bonds

Analyses of the pattern of associations, social interactions, coalitions, and aggression among chacma baboons (Papio hamadryas ursinus) in the Okavango Delta of Botswana over a 16-year period indicate that adult females form close, equitable, supportive, and enduring social relationships. They show strong and stable preferences for close kin, particularly their own mothers and daughters. Females also form strong attachments to unrelated females who are close to their own age and who are likely to be paternal half-sisters. Although absolute rates of aggression among kin are as high as rates of aggression among nonkin, females are more tolerant of close relatives than they are of others with whom they have comparable amounts of contact. These findings complement previous work which indicates that the strength of social bonds enhances the fitness of females in this population and support findings about the structure and function of social bonds in other primate groups.     

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction-diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.     

A heuristic approach to predicting water beetle diversity in temporary and fluctuating waters

An understanding of the causal mechanisms and processes that shape macroinvertebrate communities at a local scale has important implications for the management and conservation of freshwater biodiversity. Here we compare the performance of linear and non-linear statistics to explore diversity-environment relationships using data from 76 temporary and fluctuating ponds in two regions of southern England. We focus on aquatic beetle assemblages, which have been shown to be excellent surrogates of wider freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity. Ponds in the region contained a rich coleopteran fauna, totaling 68 species, which provided an excellent model system with which to compare the performance of two non-linear procedures (artificial neural networks—ANNs and generalised additive models—GAMs) and one more traditional linear approach (Multiple linear regression—MLR) to modelling diversity-environment relationships. Of all approaches employed, the best fit was obtained using an ANN model with only four input variables (conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth). This model accounted for 82% of the observed variability in Shannon diversity index across ponds. In contrast, the best GAM and MLR models only explained 50% and 14% of this variation, respectively. Contribution profile analysis of conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth, obtained from the best fit ANN through a hierarchical cluster analysis, allowed the identification of direct and proxy effects in relation to the environmental variables measured in this study. In each case, distinct clusters of ponds were identified in contribution profile analysis, suggesting that ponds across the two regions fall into a number of discrete groups, whose beetle faunas respond in subtly yet significantly different ways to key environmental variables. Aquatic coleopteran diversity in ponds in the two regions appears to be driven at a local scale by changes in relatively few physicochemical gradients, which are related to diversity in a clearly non-linear manner.     

An Integrated Monte Carlo Methodology for the calibration of water quality models

This paper proposes an Integrated Monte Carlo Methodology (IMCM) to solve the parameter estimation problem in water quality models. The methodology is based on Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and it operates by means of four modules: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Moving Feasible Ranges (MFR), Statistical Analysis of the Joint Posterior Distribution (SAD) and Uncertainty Propagation Analysis (UPA). The main innovation of the new proposal lies in the combination of MCMC and MFR modules which provides the joint posterior distribution of the calibrated parameters following the classical Bayesian approach. While MCMC module, based on Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm, is specially designed to sample complex joint posterior shapes within certain parameter ranges, the MFR readjusts these ranges until the coverage of the feasible parameter space is guaranteed. Once the joint posterior distribution is properly defined, the SAD provides the parameter statistics and the UPA performs an analysis of the uncertainty propagation through the model. The possibilities of the new proposal have been tested on the basis of a simple model featuring different activated sludge batch experiments. IMCM has been implemented in Matlab and it is prepared to be easily connected to any software package.     

Effect of the nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide on microbial communities and N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O from an arable soil fertilized with ammonium sulphate

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) affects climate change as a greenhouse gas and indirectly contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion. The main source of N₂O in soils is denitrification which requires high soil moisture, carbon and nitrate. Nitrification inhibitors can be used to mitigate emissions of N₂O from soils. In Portugal, fertilisers are often applied when soils are still relatively warm and moist conditions conducive to denitrification. A Portuguese arable soil was inhibited with dicyandiamide, a nitrification inhibitor and the effect on soil microbiological activity and composition was determined after 46 days. Soils were then incubated and received carbon and ammonium under high soil water conditions and mineral N and N₂O fluxes were measured during 22 days. We found that dicyandiamide decreased microbial populations and activity, but did not alter composition. Pre-conditioning of the soil with dicyandiamide was 80% more effective in reducing fluxes of N₂O than simultaneous application with fertiliser.     

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.