Areas of uncertainty in comparing risks of energy systems

In the past, the safety of technology has mainly been ensured by deterministic criteria that were based on engineering principles and on experience. Recently, however, it has become necessary to include risk assessment into safety policy. This need arises due to the order of magnitude of possible health and environmental impact from normal operation or accidents, as well as the complexity of modern systems that no longer allow for intuitive understanding of possible accident sequences. Assessment of risks of technical installations is subject to large uncertainties that are caused by lack of data and inadequate quantification and evaluation methods. This paper reviews the main areas of uncertainties with regard to their importance for decisionmaking. Uncertainties are an inherent part of any risk assessment result and can never be avoided. It is thus important to pay particular attention to them including limitations of methods, sensitivity to assumptions about parameters, and site-specific considerations. All this information must be described in great detail so that it can be integrated into the decisionmaking process. If applied in this context, risk assessment is a useful tool for identifying major contributors to risk and effective actions of risk management.     

The biodegradation of lactic acid-based poly(ester-urethanes)

The biodegradability of lactic acid based poly(ester-urethanes) was studied using the headspace test method, which was performed at several elevated temperatures. The poly(ester-urethanes) were prepared using a straight two-step lactic acid polymerization process. The lactic acid is first condensation polymerized to a low molecular weight hydroxyl-terminated telechelic prepolymer and then the molecular weight is increased with a chain extender such as diisocyanate. In the biodegradation studies the effect of different stereostructures (different amounts of D-units in the polymer chain), the length of ester units, and the effect of crosslinking on the biodegradation rate were studied. The results indicate that poly(ester-urethanes) do not biodegrade at 25‡C, but at elevated temperatures they biodegrade well. The different stereostructures and crosslinking have a strong influence on the biodegradation rate. The length of ester units in the polymer chain also affects the biodegradation rate, but much less than crosslinking and stereostructure.     

Effectiveness of Constructed Overland Flow Areas in Decreasing Diffuse Pollution from Forest Drainages

Forestry is the largest scale human impact affecting catchments in Finland and a prominent source of diffuse pollution in many water courses. Among the forestry activities, draining of wetlands had the most pronounced impacts on sediment, nutrient, and metal loading in the past. At present, renovation of old ditches and fertilization of peatlands constitute the major risk of forestry-induced diffuse pollution. Contemporary forestry aims at decreasing this risk with various riparian buffer strip designs. Among such designs, creation of overland flow areas by plugging the outlet ditches is increasingly used. Our objectives were to evaluate the potential of constructed overland flow areas to function as riparian buffers and estimate the quality and quantity of diffuse pollution from old versus recent forest drainages. We studied retention and release of pollutants from 20 constructed, 2- to 10-m-wide overland flow areas receiving drainage water from forested peatlands. Drainage waters were sampled above and below the plugged ditches three times per year from 1998 to 1999. Chemical oxygen demand and nutrient and metal loads and concentrations varied strongly between seasons, years, and drainage areas. Areas subjected to recent ditch renovations and fertilizations had clearly elevated seasonal loads and concentrations of total phosphorus (TP), PO₄, Fe, and Al in comparison to old treatment areas. Especially TP loads were high above the national average values measured for forestry-induced diffuse pollution. In general, water quality above and below the buffer strips did not differ significantly. Our results indicate that plugged outlet ditches and associated narrow overland flow areas do not function as proper buffers in peatland areas. We suggest that wider buffers with extensive overland flow areas are needed in order to control diffuse pollution from forested and drained peatlands.     

Assessing the impact of CO2 emission control scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios for Finland are compared with respect to the radiative forcing they cause (heating power due to the absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere). Calculations are made with the REFUGE system model using three carbon cycle models to obtain an uncertainity band for the development of the atmospheric concentration. The future emissions from the use of fossil fuels in Finland are described with three scenarios. In the reference scenario (business-as-usual), the emissions and the radiative forcing they cause would grow continuously. In the scenario of moderate emission reduction, the emissions would decrease annually by 1% from the first half of the next century. The radiative forcing would hardly decrease during the next century, however. In the scenario of strict emission reductions, the emissions are assumed to decrease annually by 3%, but the forcing would not decrease until approximately from the middle of the next century depending on the model used. Still, in the year 2100 the forcing would be considerably higher than the forcing in 1990. Due to the slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the oceans, it is difficult to reach a decreasing radiative forcing only by limiting fossil CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Finland contribute to the global emissions presently by about 0.2%. The relative contribution of Finnish CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to the global forcing due to CO₂ emissions is presently somewhat less than 0.2% due to relatively smaller emissions in the past. The impact of the nonlinearity of both CO₂ removal from the atmosphere and of CO₂ absorption of infrared radiation on the results is discussed.     

Biocides in eggs of aquatic birds. Completion of a food chain enrichment study for DDT,PCB and HG

Eggs (N=224) of seven aquatic bird species of Lake Päijänne, Finland, were analyzed for their contents of HCB, DDE, PCB, mercury (TOTHG) and methyl mercury (METHG as per cent of TOTHG). METHG was 85.5 % which is the same as in fish. Also the levels of TOTHG were of the same order of magnitude in eggs and in fish of Päijänne, but the levels of chlorinated hydrocarbons were much higher in eggs. Differences between species were highly significant but the annual and regional differences were mostly insignificant. The chlorinated hydrocarbons correlated positively with each other and with fat contents but insignificantly with mercury contents. Calculation of total residue amounts in egg, juvenile and adult bird specimens exposed an enrichment of DDT to three, PCB to five and mercury to all seven species.     

Multivariate Statistics of the Pyrolysis Products of High Molecular Components in Pulping Wastewaters to Explain Their Toxicity (6 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope At present, large-scale paper manufacture involves delignification and bleaching by elemental chlorine free (ECF) or totally chlorine free (TCF) processes. The wastewater is purified by secondary treatment (mechanical, chemical and biological) which removes most of the toxic substances from the discharge. However, we found residual toxicity in the high molecular (> 1000 D) matter (HMWM) of the discharge by test of the RET (reverse electronic transfer) inhibition. This fraction consists mainly of polydisperse lignin (LIG) and carbohydrate (CH) macromolecules. Structural units in these molecules are studied by pyrolysis gas chromatography / mass spectrometry (Pyr-GC/MS). In the present work, our aim was to find out those structural units which could explain the RET toxicity of LIG or CH molecules. We compared statistically RET toxicity values of the HMWM samples from treated wastewaters of pilot pulping experiments and intensity variation of the pyrolysis product gas chromatograms of these samples. This application is a novel study procedure. Methods Pyrolysis products (Py-GC/MS results) and inhibition of RET (reverse electronic transport toxicity) as TU50 and TU20 of HMWM (High Molecular Weight Material; Mw > 1000 D) were compared by multivariate statistics. The samples were from laboratory pilot stages of TCF (Totally Chlorine Free) and ECF (Elemental Chlorine Free) manufacture of softwood pulp. Py-GC/MS was done without and with addition of TMAH (Tetra Methyl Ammonium Hydroxide). The name and structure of each abundant fragment compound was identified from its retention time and mass spectrum compared to authentic reference compounds or literature. Four sets of Toxicity Units (TUs) and GC peak areas of the pyrolysis fragments were obtained. The data were normalized by division with LIG (lignin content of each sample). TU values were dependent and the fragment values independent (explanatory) variables in statistical treatments by SPSS system. Separate analyses of correlations, principal components (PCA) and stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) were performed from the four sample sets TCF and ECF with and without TMAH. Results and Discussion From the CH fragments, 2-furfural in TCF, and from the LIG fragments, styrene in ECF showed the highest probabilities to originate from source structures of toxicity. Other possible compounds in concern were indicated to be CH fragment 2-methyl-2-cyclopenten-1-one in ECF and LIG fragments 2-methoxy-4-methylphenol, 4,5-dimethoxy-2-methylphenol and 2-methylphenol in TCF.     

Importance of set-aside for breeding birds of open farmland in Finland

The set-aside obligation under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) brought widespread benefits for wild farmland species. Shortly after it was abolished in 2008, the national political process in Finland replaced it with a targeted agri-environment scheme for environmental fallow. Though potentially highly valuable, the value of the current scheme for securing biodiversity is yet to be confirmed. This study evaluates the importance of set-asides established under CAP to all birds of open farmland based on national monitoring data from 2001 to 2006. The set-aside fields supported 25-40% more species and held 60-105% more pairs of birds typical of open farmland in comparison with cereal fields within a similar landscape setting. The estimated effect of set-aside presence in farmland on the studied bird species is large enough to trigger considerable changes in bird populations on the national scale. The relevance of the results to the novel agri-environment scheme is discussed.     

Biological responses of midge (Chironomus riparius) and lamprey (Lampetra fluviatilis) larvae in ecotoxicity assessment of PCDD/F-, PCB- and Hg-contaminated river sediments

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - We evaluated the utility of chironomid and lamprey larval responses in ecotoxicity assessment of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans...     

Status of Peatland Degradation and Development in Sumatra and Kalimantan

Peatlands cover around 13 Mha in Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia. Human activities have rapidly increased in the peatland ecosystems during the last two decades, invariably degrading them and making them vulnerable to fires. This causes high carbon emissions that contribute to global climate change. For this article, we used 94 high resolution (10-20 m) satellite images to map the status of peatland degradation and development in Sumatra and Kalimantan using visual image interpretation. The results reveal that less than 4% of the peatland areas remain covered by pristine peatswamp forests (PSFs), while 37% are covered by PSFs with varying degree of degradation. Furthermore, over 20% is considered to be unmanaged degraded landscape, occupied by ferns, shrubs and secondary growth. This alarming extent of degradation makes peatlands vulnerable to accelerated peat decomposition and catastrophic fire episodes that will have global consequences. With on-going degradation and development the existence of the entire tropical peatland ecosystem in this region is in great danger.