Evaluation of Short-to-Medium Range Streamflow Forecasts Obtained Using an Enhanced Version of SRM1

Harshburger, Brian J., Karen S. Humes, Von P. Walden, Brandon C. Moore, Troy R. Blandford, and Albert Rango, 2010. Evaluation of Short-to-Medium Range Streamflow Forecasts Obtained Using an Enhanced Version of SRM. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):603-617. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00437.x Abstract: As demand for water continues to escalate in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. Here, we describe a methodology for generating short-to-medium range (1 to 15 days) streamflow forecasts using an enhanced version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), snow-covered area data derived from MODIS products, data from Snow Telemetry stations, and meteorological forecasts. The methodology was tested on three mid-elevation, snowmelt-dominated basins ranging in size from 1,600 to 3,500 km². To optimize the model performance and aid in its operational implementation, two enhancements have been made to SRM: (1) the use of an antecedent temperature index method to track snowpack cold content, and (2) the use of both maximum and minimum critical temperatures to partition precipitation into rain, snow, or a mixture of rain and snow. The comparison of retrospective model simulations with observed streamflow shows that the enhancements significantly improve the model performance. Streamflow forecasts generated using the enhanced version of the model compare well with the observed streamflow for the earlier leadtimes; forecast performance diminishes with leadtime due to errors in the meteorological forecasts. The three basins modeled in this research are typical of many mid-elevation basins throughout the American West, thus there is potential for this methodology to be applied successfully to other mountainous basins.     

Field evaluation of nitrogen availability from fresh and composted manure

Prediction of manure nitrogen availability to crops is key to ensuring adequate production while minimizing potential adverse environmental impacts. This field study estimated first-year and residual N availability from several manures subjected to various levels of processing, and evaluated the applicability of the pre-sidedress soil N test (PSNT) in fields receiving the different manures using corn (Zea mays L.) as the test crop. Plots received several rates of fresh (FP), dried (DP), or composted (CP) poultry (Gallus gallus domesticus) manure, composted cow (Bos taurus) (CC) manure, ammonium nitrate (AN), or no N. Crop yields and N uptake from plots where CC was applied were undistinguishable from controls in most years, whereas poultry manures significantly increased corn production. Average apparent first-year N availability, as measured by fertilizer equivalence, was 57, 53, 14, and 4% for FP, DP, CP, and CC respectively. Apparent second-year N availability, as measured by relative effectiveness, was 18, 19, 12, and 7% for FP, DP, CP, and CC; however, for CC both first- and second-year estimates of apparent N recovery (ANR) could statistically not be separated from the controls. Apparent nitrogen avail-ability was greater for less processed manures and for CP compared to CC, emphasizing that producers should know the source and level of compost stability when these materials are used as a primary nutrient source. The PSNT successfully (87% correct) identified sites with a critical value of 24 mg kg(-1) that were N sufficient across a variety of N amendments from those that would have benefitted from additional N input.     

The theory of neighbourhood decline due to pariah land uses: Regaining control of the downward cycle

Abstract

Some neighbourhood environments have become dumping grounds for locally unwanted land uses (LULUs) that middle-class Americans do not want near their homes. LULUs may combine with other pariah land uses to collectively undermine the quality of the local environment, reduce investment, government services, the proportion of middle-income people and associated businesses. As important neighbourhood attributes are lost, illegal activities, derelict structures, trash-strewn lots and the concentration of poor and unhealthy people may increase. This paper describes the theory behind the impact of pariah land uses through examples of the downward spiral experienced by Camden, New Jersey and the south Bronx, New York. It then documents the experience of one community, Elizabethport, New Jersey, in reversing that downward spiral. Success in Elizabethport came from the synergistic activities of local, state and federal governments, community groups, and not-for-profit organizations as they struggled to regain control through local environmental management, rebuilding, and reducing crime. Social capital was also strengthened by using a local community health concern—that of childhood asthma. Efforts to reverse the downward spiral of urban decay from pariah land uses should be multi-faceted, spurred by local efforts that address local concerns.     

Organization–environment adaptation: A macro‐level shift in modeling work distress and morale

We theorized that organization–environment adaptation, the interaction between external demands and personnel resources, predicts distress and morale. We tested this hypothesis in 29 stations within one state police department, and combined three data sources. We measured environmental demands for policing via census data pertaining to the station precinct (e.g., per cent unemployed; per cent in public housing). We assessed resources via personnel numbers within stations. Outcomes were employee's perceptions of staff distress and morale at the station (N = 247), assessed twice, 14 months apart. Using hierarchical linear modeling, we found that environmental demands predicted perceptions of workgroup distress and morale and that the relationships were moderated by personnel resources. For distress, when resources were low, demands were positively associated with distress; when resources were high, demands were negatively associated with distress. For morale, when resources were high, demands were positively associated with morale; there was no relationship when resources were low. Results show that aversive and pleasurable reactions at work may be traced to how resources are employed to manage external demands. Results support a macro‐level shift in modeling distress and morale, incorporating external demands, and strategic management decisions regarding personnel resourcing. Our research suggests that rather than being a result of individual failure to adapt, compromised work ability may result from an organizational failure to adapt to the environmental context. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing ecological correlates of marine bird declines to inform marine conservation

Identifying drivers of ecosystem change in large marine ecosystems is central for their effective management and conservation. This is a sizable challenge, particularly in ecosystems transcending international borders, where monitoring and conservation of long‐range migratory species and their habitats are logistically and financially problematic. Here, using tools borrowed from epidemiology, we elucidated common drivers underlying species declines within a marine ecosystem, much in the way epidemiological analyses evaluate risk factors for negative health outcomes to better inform decisions. Thus, we identified ecological traits and dietary specializations associated with species declines in a community of marine predators that could be reflective of ecosystem change. To do so, we integrated count data from winter surveys collected in long‐term marine bird monitoring programs conducted throughout the Salish Sea—a transboundary large marine ecosystem in North America's Pacific Northwest. We found that decadal declines in winter counts were most prevalent among pursuit divers such as alcids (Alcidae) and grebes (Podicipedidae) that have specialized diets based on forage fish, and that wide‐ranging species without local breeding colonies were more prone to these declines. Although a combination of factors is most likely driving declines of diving forage fish specialists, we propose that changes in the availability of low‐trophic prey may be forcing wintering range shifts of diving birds in the Salish Sea. Such a synthesis of long‐term trends in a marine predator community not only provides unique insights into the types of species that are at risk of extirpation and why, but may also inform proactive conservation measures to counteract threats—information that is paramount for species‐specific and ecosystem‐wide conservation. Evaluación de las Correlaciones Ecológicas de las Declinaciones de Aves Marinas para Informar a la Conservación Marina     

Hitchhikers reveal cryptic host behavior: new insights from the association between Planes major and sea turtles in the Pacific Ocean

Studies that incorporate information from habitat-specific ecological interactions (e.g., epibiotic associations) can reveal valuable insights into the cryptic habitat-use patterns and behavior of marine vertebrates. Sea turtles, like other large, highly mobile marine vertebrates, are inherently difficult to study, and such information can inform the implementation of conservation measures. The presence of epipelagic epibionts, such as the flotsam crab Planes major, on sea turtles strongly suggests that neritic turtles have recently occupied epipelagic habitats (upper 200 m in areas with >200 m depth) and that epipelagic turtles spend time at or near the surface. We quantified the effects of turtle species, turtle size, and habitat (neritic or epipelagic) on the frequency of epibiosis (F ₀) by P. major on sea turtles in the Pacific Ocean. In neritic habitats, we found that loggerhead (F ₀ = 27.6 %) and olive ridley turtles (F ₀ = 26.2 %) host crabs frequently across a wide range of body sizes, and green turtles almost never host crabs (F ₀ = 0.7 %). These results suggest that loggerheads and olive ridleys display variable/flexible epipelagic-neritic transitions, while green turtles tend to transition unidirectionally at small body sizes. In epipelagic habitats, we found that loggerheads host crabs (F ₀ = 92.9 %) more frequently than olive ridleys (F ₀ = 50 %) and green turtles (F ₀ = 38.5 %). These results suggest that epipelagic loggerheads tend to spend more time at or near the surface than epipelagic olive ridleys and green turtles. Results of this study reveal new insights into habitat-use patterns and behavior of sea turtles and display how epibiont data can supplement data from more advanced technologies to gain a better understanding of the ecology of marine vertebrates during cryptic life stages.