Overcoming Endpoint Bias in Climate Change Communication: The Case of Arctic Sea Ice Trends

Unusually cold winters, a slowing in upward global temperatures, or an increase in Arctic sea ice extent are often falsely cast as here-and-now disconfirmation of the scientific consensus on climate change. Such conclusions are examples of “end point bias,” the well documented psychological tendency to interpret a recent short-term fluctuation as a reversal of a long-term trend. End point bias poses a challenge to those trying to communicate cross-decade climate warming trends. In this study, we demonstrate that exposure to misleading scientific information on FoxNews.com that evokes end point bias can affect the beliefs of liberals and moderates as well as conservatives. We also show that the leveraging-involving-visualizing-analogizing communication model can reduce the effects of endpoint bias among moderates and liberals at the same time as it dampens both the ideological and endpoint biasing of conservatives.     

The 2014 Walrus Haul Out: A Case Study of Selective Exposure to Environmental News Coverage

In this article we examine in real time the political selective exposure process involved when the public confronted the “walrus haul out” of October 2014, a news event attributed by some climate change researchers to the effects of the climate change-driven reduction of Arctic sea ice. Analyzing data assessing the amount of major TV and cable news network coverage of the haul out, and evaluating public opinion data collected from a rolling cross-sectional survey of US adults take at the time, we show that coverage of this event was not equitably distributed across news media news sources, that exposure to news source is related to the respondents’ ideological dispositions, and that exposure to coverage of the walrus haul out is related to ideology, the selectivity of political news habits, and climate change knowledge. We conclude with a discussion of the apparent inevitability of selective exposure to media coverage of climate change-related events and the implications for effective climate change communication.     

Young adult conservation jobs and worker health

Decades of research studies demonstrate links between healthy environment, healthy lifestyles, and healthy people. This study evaluated the correlations between young adult conservation workers' perceived stress, personal effectiveness, and nature experience using quantitative and qualitative social science methods. The study cohort numbered nearly 300 individuals serving on small crews for an entire year, and were dispersed across Washington State (USA) to participate in conservation projects in rural to urban landscapes. Pre- and post-test surveys, using validated measures of perceived stress, health dimensions, and personal resiliency, were further informed by mid-year, field-based interviews. Overall, the young adults expressed fatigue with the physical work but were quite healthy when compared to national benchmarks. They indicated a reduction in perceived stress, and indicated social function influences based on the conservation work. Conclusions address the importance and implications of expanding this work opportunity to a more diverse cohort and future research needs.     

Assessment of the Usefulness of Semipermeable Membrane Devices for Long-Term Watershed Monitoring in an Urban Slough System

Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were deployed at eight sites within the Buffalo Slough, near Portland, Oregon, to (1) measure the spatial and seasonal distribution of dissolved polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and organochlorine (OC) compounds in the slough, (2) assess the usefulness of SPMDs as a tool for investigating and monitoring hydrophobic compounds throughout the Columbia Slough system, and (3) evaluate the utility of SPMDs as a tool for measuring the long-term effects of watershed improvement activities. Data from the SPMDs revealed clear spatial and seasonal differences in water quality within the slough and indicate that for hydrophobic compounds, this time-integrated passive-sampling technique is a useful tool for long-term watershed monitoring. In addition, the data suggest that a spiking rate of 2–5 μg/SPMD of permeability/performance reference compounds, including at least one compound that is not susceptible to photodegradation, may be optimum for the conditions encountered here.     

Rapid adaptation to crisis events: Insights from the bait crisis in the Maine lobster fishery

Climate change, overfishing, and other anthropogenic drivers are forcing marine resource users and decision makers to adapt—often rapidly. In this article we introduce the concept of pathways to rapid adaptation to crisis events to bring attention to the double-edged role that institutions play in simultaneously enabling and constraining swift responses to emerging crises. To develop this concept, we draw on empirical evidence from a case study of the iconic Maine lobster (Homarus americanus) industry. In the Gulf of Maine, the availability of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) stock, a key source of bait in the Maine lobster industry, declined sharply. We investigate the patterns of bait use in the fishery over an 18-year period (2002–2019) and how the lobster industry was able to abruptly adapt to the decline of locally-sourced herring in 2019 that came to be called the bait crisis. We found that adaptation strategies to the crisis were diverse, largely uncoordinated, and imperfectly aligned, but ultimately led to a system-level shift towards a more diverse and globalized bait supply. This shift was enabled by existing institutions and hastened an evolution in the bait system that was already underway, as opposed to leading to system transformation. We suggest that further attention to raceways may be useful in understanding how and, in particular, why marine resource users and coastal communities adapt in particular ways in the face of shocks and crises.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01617-8.     

Explaining nursing turnover intent: job satisfaction,pay satisfaction,or organizational commitment?

A number of models have been developed to explain nurses' turnover behavior. The common theme that emerges from these models is that turnover behavior is a multistage process that includes attitudinal, decisional, and behavioral components. The purpose of this study was to assess both the direct and indirect impact of certain pay policies upon the turnover intentions of paediatric nurses. The two major questions addressed were: What was the relative impact of job satisfaction, pay satisfaction, and organizational commitment upon the turnover intentions of paediatric nurses eligible for these pay policies? What model accurately portrays the relationship among these three independent variables and turnover intentions? Exploration of the causal pathways among these variables and demographic factors revealed complex models of association. The results suggest that job satisfaction has only an indirect influence on the intention to quit, whereas organizational commitment has the strongest and most direct impact. A further finding that pay satisfaction had both direct and indirect effects on turnover intent was consistent with administrators' assumptions underlying the pay policies. Control variables such as having a degree, having children, and working 12-hour shifts were found to have both direct and indirect influences upon pay satisfaction and turnover intent. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Injuries associated with the use of riding mowers in the United States, 2002-2007

Context: To examine injuries among patients treated in an emergency department (ED) related to the use of a riding lawn mower.Design and Setting: Data were obtained from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System for the years 2002-2007. National estimates of ED visits for injuries associated with the use of a riding lawn mower were analyzed. Narrative text entries were categorized to provide a detailed record of the circumstances precipitating the injury. Average annual rates were calculated and logistic regression analyses were employed to determine risk estimates for patient disposition and demographic characteristics related to ED visits for injuries associated with riding mowers.Results: From 2002 through 2007, there were an estimated 66,341 ED visits for injuries related to the use of riding lawnmowers in the U.S., with an average annual rate of 6.0 ED visits per 100,000 males, and 1.6 ED visits per 100,000 females. Older adults had higher rates of ED visits for injuries (7.2/100,000) than younger age groups. The most common injuries involved contusions (24%); sprains/strains (22%) and fractures (17%). The majority of patients (90%) were treated and released the same day. Results of logistic regression analyses revealed that older adults were more likely to be hospitalized when compared to younger age groups; and incidents involving rollovers [OR = 5.45 (95% CI = 3.22-9.23)] and being run over [6.01 (95% CI 3.23-11.17)] were more likely to result in hospitalization when compared to all other circumstances of injury.Conclusions: Riding mowers present injury patterns and circumstances that are different than those reported for push mowers. Circumstances related to injuries and age groups affected were varied, making prevention of riding mower injuries challenging. Application/Impact: Findings support the need to increase awareness and/or change the design of riding mowers with respect to risk of rollover injuries.     

Explorative spatial analysis of traffic accident statistics and road mortality among the provinces of Turkey

Introduction

The aim of the study is to describe the inter-province differences in traffic accidents and mortality on roads of Turkey.

Method

Two different risk indicators were used to evaluate the road safety performance of the provinces in Turkey. These indicators are the ratios between the number of persons killed in road traffic accidents (1) and the number of accidents (2) (nominators) and their exposure to traffic risk (denominator). Population and the number of registered motor vehicles in the provinces were used as denominators individually. Spatial analyses were performed to the mean annual rate of deaths and to the number of fatal accidents that were calculated for the period of 2001-2006. Empirical Bayes smoothing was used to remove background noise from the raw death and accident rates because of the sparsely populated provinces and small number of accident and death rates of provinces. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed to show whether the provinces with high rates of deaths-accidents show clustering or are located closer by chance. The spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of deaths and accidents was nonrandom and detected as clustered with significance of P < 0.05 with spatial autocorrelation analyses.

Results

Regions with high concentration of fatal accidents and deaths were located in the provinces that contain the roads connecting the Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya provinces. Accident and death rates were also modeled with some independent variables such as number of motor vehicles, length of roads, and so forth using geographically weighted regression analysis with forward step-wise elimination. The level of statistical significance was taken as P < 0.05. Large differences were found between the rates of deaths and accidents according to denominators in the provinces. The geographically weighted regression analyses did significantly better predictions for both accident rates and death rates than did ordinary least regressions, as indicated by adjusted R² values. Geographically weighted regression provided values of 0.89-0.99 adjusted R² for death and accident rates, compared with 0.88-0.95, respectively, by ordinary least regressions.

Impact on industry

Geographically weighted regression has the potential to reveal local patterns in the spatial distribution of rates, which would be ignored by the ordinary least regression approach. The application of spatial analysis and modeling of accident statistics and death rates at provincial level in Turkey will help to identification of provinces with outstandingly high accident and death rates. This could help more efficient road safety management in Turkey.