Importance of indirect nitrous oxide emissions at the field, farm and catchment scale

Direct and indirect nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions and leaching losses from an intensively managed grazed pasture in the Ythan catchment, Aberdeenshire, UK, were measured and compared over a 17-month period. Simultaneous measurements of farm-wide leaching losses of N₂O were also made and catchment-wide fluxes were estimated from existing N leaching data. The relative importance of direct and indirect N₂O fluxes at the field, farm and catchment scale was then assessed. At the field scale we found that direct N₂O emissions were low (1.2 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, 0.6% of N input) with indirect N₂O emissions via drainage waters comprising a significant proportion (25%) of total N₂O emissions. At the whole-farm scale, the N₂O-N emission factor (0.003) for leached NO₃-N (EF_5-g) was in line with the IPCC's recent downward revision. At the catchment scale, a direct N₂O flux of 1.9 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ and an indirect flux of 0.06 kg N₂O-N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ were estimated. This study lends further support to the recent downward revision of the IPCC emission factor for N₂O arising from leached N in surface and ground waters (EF_5-g) and highlights the need for multiple point sampling to ensure that the importance of indirect N₂O losses via drainage waters is not misrepresented at the farm and catchment scales.     

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.