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Govindasamy?BalaEmail author Ranjith?Gopalakrishnan Mathangi?Jayaraman Ramakrishna?Nemani N.?H.?Ravindranath 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(2):143-160
There is huge knowledge gap in our understanding of many terrestrial carbon cycle processes. In this paper, we investigate
the bounds on terrestrial carbon uptake over India that arises solely due to CO
2
-fertilization. For this purpose, we use a terrestrial carbon cycle model and consider two extreme scenarios: unlimited CO2-fertilization is allowed for the terrestrial vegetation with CO2 concentration level at 735 ppm in one case, and CO2-fertilization is capped at year 1975 levels for another simulation. Our simulations show that, under equilibrium conditions,
modeled carbon stocks in natural potential vegetation increase by 17 Gt-C with unlimited fertilization for CO2 levels and climate change corresponding to the end of 21st century but they decline by 5.5 Gt-C if fertilization is limited
at 1975 levels of CO2 concentration. The carbon stock changes are dominated by forests. The area covered by natural potential forests increases
by about 36% in the unlimited fertilization case but decreases by 15% in the fertilization-capped case. Thus, the assumption
regarding CO2-fertilization has the potential to alter the sign of terrestrial carbon uptake over India. Our model simulations also imply
that the maximum potential terrestrial sequestration over India, under equilibrium conditions and best case scenario of unlimited
CO2-fertilization, is only 18% of the 21st century SRES A2 scenarios emissions from India. The limited uptake potential of the
natural potential vegetation suggests that reduction of CO2 emissions and afforestation programs should be top priorities. 相似文献
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Shamama Afreen Nitasha Sharma Rajiv K. Chaturvedi Ranjith Gopalakrishnan N. H. Ravindranath 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(2):177-197
Due to large scale afforestation programs and forest conservation legislations, India’s total forest area seems to have stabilized
or even increased. In spite of such efforts, forest fragmentation and degradation continues, with forests being subject to
increased pressure due to anthropogenic factors. Such fragmentation and degradation is leading to the forest cover to change
from very dense to moderately dense and open forest and 253 km2 of very dense forest has been converted to moderately dense forest, open forest, scrub and non-forest (during 2005–2007).
Similarly, there has been a degradation of 4,120 km2 of moderately dense forest to open forest, scrub and non-forest resulting in a net loss of 936 km2 of moderately dense forest. Additionally, 4,335 km2 of open forest have degraded to scrub and non-forest. Coupled with pressure due to anthropogenic factors, climate change
is likely to be an added stress on forests. Forest sector programs and policies are major factors that determine the status
of forests and potentially resilience to projected impacts of climate change. An attempt is made to review the forest policies
and programs and their implications for the status of forests and for vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.
The study concludes that forest conservation and development policies and programs need to be oriented to incorporate climate
change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. 相似文献
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N. H. Ravindranath Rajiv K. Chaturvedi N. V. Joshi R. Sukumar Jayant Sathaye 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(2):211-227
Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National
level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change
are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m2/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian
forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based
on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially
on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (−5) to 40% across
different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However,
under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (−2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The
cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years
2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation
potential estimates obtained from IBIS—a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential
increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108. 相似文献
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