The adoption of a Climate Disaster Resilience Index in Chennai,India

Results derived from the Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI)—consisting of five dimensions (economic, institutional, natural, physical, and social), 25 parameters, and 125 variables—reflect the abilities of people and institutions to respond to potential climate‐related disasters in Chennai, India. The findings of this assessment, applied in the 10 administrative zones of the city, reveal that communities living in the northern and older parts of Chennai have lower overall resilience as compared to the flourishing areas (vis‐à‐vis economic growth and population) along the urban fringes. The higher resilience of communities along the urban fringes suggests that urbanisation may not necessarily lead to a deterioration of basic urban services, such as electricity, housing, and water. This indication is confirmed by a strong statistical correlation between physical resilience and population growth in Chennai. The identification of the resilience of different urban areas of Chennai has the potential to support future planning decisions on the city's scheduled expansion.     

Abundance of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in the western Baltic,Belt Seas and Kattegat

In July 2012, a ship-board double-platform line-transect survey was conducted to assess harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) abundance in the Kattegat, Belt Seas and the Western Baltic. A total of 826 km of track lines were surveyed between the 2nd and 21st of July 2012, and 169 observations were made by the primary observers, comprising a total of 230 porpoises. Fifty-seven observations were identified as duplicate sightings observed by both tracker and primary observers and were used to correct for availability and perception bias of the primary detections. Using Mark–Recapture Distance Sampling analysis, we produced a model using the half-normal key function, including sightability as the only covariate to estimate the density and abundance of harbour porpoise within the 51,511 km² survey area. Estimated detection probability on the transect line, known as g(0), was at 0.571 (±0.074; CV = 0.130). Using a point independence model of the detection function, the abundance of harbour porpoises within the survey area was estimated at 40,475 animals (95 % CI 25,614–65,041, CV = 0.235) with an associated density of 0.786 animals km^?2 (95 % CI 0.498–1.242, CV = 0.235) and an average group size of 1.488 animals. These results reflect densities obtained during the SCANS surveys in 1994 and 2005, indicating no significant population trend in the area. However, it should be noted that the survey area covers more than one population and that results are therefore not necessarily reflecting local population trends. Until proper population borders are obtained, the abundance estimate provides baseline data for future monitoring and is an important input to the assessment of the conservation status of harbour porpoises in the area.     

Complex national sampling design for long-term monitoring of protected dry grasslands in Switzerland

We describe a probabilistic sampling design of circular permanent plots for the long-term monitoring of protected dry grasslands in Switzerland. The population under study is defined by the perimeter of a national inventory. The monitoring focus is on the species composition of the protected grassland vegetation and derived conservation values. Efficient trend estimations are required for the whole country and for some predefined target groups (six biogeographical regions and eleven vegetation types). The target groups are equally important regardless of their size. Consequently, intensified sampling of the less frequent groups is essential for sample efficiency. The prior information needed to draw a targeted sample is obtained from the sampling frame and external databases. The logistics and generalized delineation of the target population may pose further problems. Thus, investments in fieldwork and travel time should be well balanced by selecting a cluster sample. Second, any access problems in the field and non-target units in the sample should be compensated for by selecting reserve plots as they otherwise may considerably reduce the effective sample size. Finally, the design has to be flexible as the sampling frame may change over time and sampling intensity might have to be adjusted to redefined budgets or requirements. Likewise, the variables and biological items of interest may change. To fulfil all these constraints and to optimally use the available prior information, we propose a multi-stage self-weighted unequal probability sampling design. The design uses modern techniques such as: balanced sampling, spreading, stratified balancing, calibration, unequal probability sampling and power allocation. This sampling design meets the numerous requirements of this study and provides a very efficient estimator.     

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可持续消费与生产第八次国际高级研讨会 全世界面临着贫穷、饥饿、疾病和环境恶化等不断发展的问题.行动指令(最新指令是世界可持续发展峰会的<执行计划>以及联合国千年目标)已经到位.我们政府、企业和民间团体已经承诺改变现实.我们现在的挑战就是我们前进的速度.我们必须更快地开展工作,因为人类的生命和地球的健康正面临险境.在未来两天里我希望你们讨论并确定具体而实际的工作范畴--项目、举措、合作--,以便带来根本性的变化,建立供其他人适应、准备和效仿的模式.中心内容就是执行.     

Male control of sperm transfer dynamics in a spermatophore-donating bushcricket

In many animal species, male and female interests often differ when it comes to decisions over mating and fertilization. However, it is intrinsically difficult to determine the degree to which males and females exert control over the various processes that determine the outcome of reproductive interactions, and thus to predict how such conflicts will be resolved. For example, in species where sperm are transferred to females via a spermatophore or other external sperm packaging device, it is unclear which sex determines subsequent sperm transfer dynamics to the female reproductive tract. To address this question, we used a reciprocal cross experimental design in a bushcricket species (Poecilimon veluchianus) comprising two subspecies differing in the dynamics of sperm transfer. The reciprocal crosses show that in these bushcrickets the timing of sperm transfer in inter-subspecies crosses closely resemble those typical of the subspecies of the male partner, indicating that it is the properties of the spermatophore rather than its handling by the female that determine sperm transfer dynamics. There was neither a significant female influence nor any indication of an interaction between males and females with regard to the number of sperm transferred after a set interval. Our study suggests that males rather than females appear to control the timing of the insemination process in this species.     

Fitting complex population models by combining particle filters with Markov chain Monte Carlo

We show how a recent framework combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with particle filters (PFMCMC) may be used to estimate population state-space models. With the purpose of utilizing the strengths of each method, PFMCMC explores hidden states by particle filters, while process and observation parameters are estimated using an MCMC algorithm. PFMCMC is exemplified by analyzing time series data on a red kangaroo (Macropus rufus) population in New South Wales, Australia, using MCMC over model parameters based on an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We fit three population models to these data; a density-dependent logistic diffusion model with environmental variance, an unregulated stochastic exponential growth model, and a random-walk model. Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities show that there is little support for density dependence and that the random-walk model is the most parsimonious model. The particle filter Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a brute-force method that may be used to fit a range of complex population models. Implementation is straightforward and less involved than standard MCMC for many models, and marginal densities for model selection can be obtained with little additional effort. The cost is mainly computational, resulting in long running times that may be improved by parallelizing the algorithm.     

Grazer avoidance may explain the invasiveness of the red alga Gracilaria vermiculophylla in Scandinavian waters

The invasive red alga Gracilaria vermiculophylla has quickly spread across Europe, but it is unclear whether its success is based on a high tolerance to variations in environmental conditions or to the absence of native grazers that feed on this alga. We tested whether native invertebrate grazers prefer native algae to G. vermiculophylla. Feeding preferences of three common herbivores were quantified when offered G. vermiculophylla and native Fucus vesiculosus, Ceramium virgatum, and Ulva intestinalis in no-, two- and multiple-choice trials. Herbivore growth was measured when fed each of the algae separately. Grazers consumed G. vermiculophylla in no-choice trials, but avoided generally this alga when having a choice. U. intestinalis was always preferred over G. vermiculophylla, and grazers fed with U. intestinalis grew faster than those fed with G. vermiculophylla. We conclude that grazers avoid G. vermiculophylla to most native algae, which may benefit G. vermiculophylla in northern European estuaries.     

Public preferences for production of local and global ecosystem services

Many regulating ecosystem services exhibit non-excludability and non-rivalry characteristics akin to public goods. This makes it unlikely that such regulating ecosystem services will attract a price in the marketplace. Policymakers, therefore, find difficulties in determining a correct economic valuation for regulating ecosystem services, with potentially severe consequences for aligning policy for ecosystem service provision with public preferences for service delivery. This research used a choice modelling approach to estimate public preferences for delivery of two regulating ecosystem services; reductions in the flood risk to the British city of York (implemented by filling in drainage ditches in peat moorland further up the catchment), and a reduction in CO₂ emissions (implemented by planting Poplar trees for biomass either locally in the study area or elsewhere in the UK). The choice experiment presented respondents with options providing different levels of CO₂ reduction, implemented locally or nationally, and different levels of flood risk reduction, at a range of different prices, with a tax as the payment vehicle. Subsequent analysis with latent class (LC) models showed considerable heterogeneity of preference among respondents, particularly with regard to the location of tree planting for CO₂ reduction. One LC segment showed a significant preference for achieving a high level CO₂ reduction through national, as opposed to local tree planting, potentially indicating the existence of NIMBYism. The same LC segment displayed a preference for moderate reductions in the flood risk to York, even though this would deliver no personal benefit for a substantial proportion of the segment. This could, therefore, indicate altruistic behaviour towards geographically proximate beneficiaries.     

A new conceptual model for the fate of lignin in decomposing plant litter

Lignin is a main component of plant litter. Its degradation is thought to be critical for litter decomposition rates and the build-up of soil organic matter. We studied the relationships between lignin degradation and the production of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and of CO2 during litter decomposition. Needle or leaf litter of five species (Norway spruce, Scots pine, mountain ash, European beech, sycamore maple) and of different decomposition stage (freshly fallen and up to 27 months of field exposure) was incubated in the laboratory for two years. Lignin degradation was followed with the CuO method. Strong lignin degradation occurred during the first 200 incubation days, as revealed by decreasing yields of lignin-derived phenols. Thereafter lignin degradation leveled off. This pattern was similar for fresh and decomposed litter, and it stands in contrast to the common view of limited lignin degradation in fresh litter. Dissolved organic carbon and CO2 also peaked in the first period of the incubation but were not interrelated. In the later phase of incubation, CO2 production was positively correlated with DOC amounts, suggesting that bioavailable, soluble compounds became a limiting factor for CO2 production. Lignin degradation occurred only when CO2 production was high, and not limited by bioavailable carbon. Thus carbon availability was the most important control on lignin degradation. In turn, lignin degradation could not explain differences in DOC and CO2 production over the study period. Our results challenge the traditional view regarding the fate and role of lignin during litter decomposition. Lignin degradation is controlled by the availability of easily decomposable carbon sources. Consequently, it occurs particularly in the initial phase of litter decomposition and is hampered at later stages if easily decomposable resources decline.