Oil Exploration under Climate Treaties

In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of oil in non-OPEC countries. We present a numerical intertemporal global equilibrium model for the fossil fuel markets. The international oil market is modelled with a cartel (OPEC) and a competitive fringe on the supply side, following a Nash–Cournot approach. An initial resource base for oil is given in the non-OPEC region. However, the resource base changes over time due to depletion, exploration, and discovery. When studying the effects of different climate treaties on oil exploration, two contrasting incentives apply. If an international carbon tax is introduced, the producer price of oil will drop compared to the reference case. This gives an incentive to reduce oil production and exploration. However, the oil price may increase less rapidly over time, which gives an incentive to expedite production and exploration. In fact, in the case of a rising carbon tax we find the last incentive to be the strongest, which means that an international climate treaty may increase oil exploration in non-OPEC countries for the coming decades and reduce OPEC's market share.     

Cost-effective environmental policy: implications of induced technological change

Cost-effective environmental policy generally requires that all emission sources are faced with the same tax. In this paper I discuss how the existence of induced technological change may alter this result, if at least some of the effect is external to the firm. Focusing on Learning by doing (LBD) effects in abatement activities, it is shown that emission sources with external learning effects should be faced with a higher tax than emission sources with only autonomous technological change. By using simple numerical simulations, it is further investigated to what degree a cost-effective climate policy differs from a free quota market, under various assumptions about learning effects, diffusion of technology and environmental targets. The results indicate that optimal taxes may be significantly higher in the industrial world than in the developing world. Moreover, the industrial world's share of global abatement may be much higher in a cost-effective solution than in a free quota market. The global cost savings of a fully flexible implementation of the Kyoto Protocol are further questioned, as potential spillover effects of technological growth in the industrial world are not internalised in the market.     

Characterisation of occupational exposure to air contaminants in a nitrate fertiliser production plant

The aim of this study was to characterise personal exposures to dust, acid vapours, and gases among workers in a Norwegian nitrate fertiliser production plant, as part of an ongoing epidemiological study. In total, 178 inhalable and 179 thoracic aerosol mass fraction samples were collected from randomly chosen workers (N = 141) from three compound fertiliser departments (A, B and C), a calcium nitrate fertiliser production department, nitric acid- and ammonia-production departments, and a shipping department. The overall median inhalable and thoracic aerosol mass concentrations were generally low (1.1 mg m(-3) (min-max: <0.93-45) and 0.21 mg m(-3) (min-max: <0.085-11), respectively). Workers at the compound fertiliser departments B and C had significantly higher inhalable aerosol mass air concentrations compared to the other departments (p < 0.05), except for compound fertiliser department A; however, the difference between the compound fertiliser department C and calcium nitrate department was slightly above the significant level. Workers at the compound fertiliser department A had significantly higher thoracic aerosol mass air concentrations compared to the other departments (p < 0.05), except for compound fertiliser departments B and C. The results indicate that the extrathoracic aerosol fraction of the aerosol compared to the thoracic fraction dominated in most departments. Measurement of the main constituents Ca, K, Mg, and P in the water-soluble and water-insoluble aerosol mass fractions showed that the air concentrations of these elements were low. There is, however, a shift towards more water-soluble species as the production goes from raw material with phosphate rock towards the final product of fertilisers. Overall, the arithmetic mean of water-soluble Ca in the thoracic mass fraction was 51% (min-max: 1-100). A total of 169 personal samples were analysed for HNO(3) vapour and HF. The highest median concentration of HNO(3) (0.63 mg m(-3)) was in the compound fertiliser departments B, and all measurements but four of the HF concentrations were below the LOD of 190 μg m(-3). Exposures to NH(3), CO and NO(2) were measured using direct-reading electrochemical sensors and the time weighted overall averages were all below the LODs of the respective sensors, NH(3) 2 ppm; CO 2 ppm; and NO(2) 0.2 ppm, but some short-term peaks were detected. Even though our results indicate that the workers may experience peak exposure episodes when performing job tasks such as cleaning or maintenance work, the overall air concentrations are well below what is considered to cause known health risks.     

Radiographic evidence of pulmonary fibrosis and possible etiologic factors at a nickel refinery in Norway

Animal studies have shown that nickel compounds may induce pulmonary fibrosis, but so far only limited documentation in humans has been available. Radiographs of 1046 workers in a nickel refinery in Norway were read blindly and independently by three NIOSH certified B-readers, according to the ILO standards. Pulmonary fibrosis (PF) was defined as a median reading of ILO score > or = 1/0 and following this criterion, 47 cases (4.5%) were identified. In logistic regression models, controlling for age and smoking, there was evidence of increased risk of PF with cumulative exposure to soluble nickel or sulfidic nickel (p = 0.04 for both). For metallic nickel a p-value of 0.07 was found. For soluble nickel there was a dose-response trend for 4 categories of cumulated exposure. In the group with the highest cumulative exposure to soluble nickel (low exposure as reference), the crude odds ratio for PF was 4.34 (95% CI 1.75-10.77). The risk adjusted for age, smoking, asbestos and sulfidic nickel was 2.24 (0.82-6.16), with a dose-response trend. The corresponding figures for sulfidic nickel were 5.06 (1.70-15.09, crude) and 2.04 (0.54-7.70, adjusted for age, smoking, asbestos and soluble nickel). However, the dose-response trend was less clear for sulfidic nickel. Controlling for estimated asbestos exposure at the refinery tended to increase the odds ratios of soluble and sulfidic nickel. This study indicates that in addition to age and smoking exposure to soluble and sulfidic nickel compounds are risk factors of PF in humans. Since the number of cases identified in this study is small and undetected confounders may have been present, further studies in other cohorts are appropriate.     

Cost-effective unilateral climate policy design: Size matters

Given the bleak prospects for a global agreement on mitigating climate change, pressure for unilateral abatement is increasing. A major challenge is emissions leakage. Border carbon adjustments and output-based allocation of emissions allowances can increase effectiveness of unilateral action but introduce distortions of their own. We assess antileakage measures as a function of abatement coalition size. We first develop a partial equilibrium analytical framework to see how these instruments affect emissions within and outside the coalition. We then employ a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use to assess the strategies as the coalition grows. We find that full border adjustments rank first in global cost-effectiveness, followed by import tariffs and output-based rebates. The differences across measures and their overall appeal decline as the abatement coalition grows. In terms of cost, the coalition countries prefer border carbon adjustments; countries outside the coalition prefer output-based rebates.     

Evaluation of factors influencing soluble microbial product in submerged MBR through hybrid ASM model

In this study, a mathematical model was established to predict the formation of the soluble microbial product (SMP) in a submerged membrane bioreactor. The developed model was calibrated under the reference condition. Simulation results were in good agreement with the measured results under the reference condition. The calibrated model was then used in the scenario studies to evaluate the effect of three chosen operating parameters: hydraulic retention time (HRT), dissolved oxygen concentration, and sludge retention time (SRT). Simulation results revealed that the SMP dominated the soluble organic substances in the supernatant. The scenario studies also revealed that the HRT can be decreased to 1 h without deteriorating the effluent quality; dissolved oxygen concentration in the reactor can be kept at 2–3 mg/L to maintain the effluent quality, reduce the content of SMP, and minimize operating costs; the optimal SRT can be controlled to 10–15 d to achieve complete nitrification process, less membrane fouling potential, and acceptable organic removal efficiency.     

Experimental evidence of a risk-sensitive reproductive allocation in a long-lived mammal

When reproduction competes with the amount of resources available for survival during an unpredictable nonbreeding season, individuals should adopt a risk-sensitive regulation of their reproductive allocation. We tested this hypothesis on female reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), which face a trade-off between reproduction and acquisition of body reserves during spring and summer, with autumn body mass functioning as insurance against stochastic winter climatic severity. The study was conducted in a population consisting of two herds: one that received supplementary winter feeding for four years while the other utilized natural pastures. The females receiving additional forage allocated more to their calves. Experimental translocation of females between the herds was conducted to simulate two contrasting rapid alterations of winter conditions. When females receiving supplementary feeding were moved to natural pastures, they promptly reduced their reproductive allocation the following summer. However, when winter conditions were improved, females were reluctant to increase their reproductive allocation. This asymmetric response to improved vs. reduced winter conditions is consistent with a risk-averse adjustment in reproductive allocation. The ability of individuals to track their environment and the concordant risk-sensitive adjustment of reproductive allocation may render subarctic reindeer more resilient to climate change than previously supposed.     

Moss species benefits from breakdown of cyclic rodent dynamics in boreal forests

Bryophytes have increased in abundance in northern regions, and climate changes have been proposed to account for this change. However, changes in the population dynamics of microtine rodents may also contribute to changes in bryophyte abundance. New evidence indicates a tendency for microtine rodent population oscillations to change from periodicity of 3-5 years to become irregular or acyclic. The impact on ecosystem functioning is potentially great. We study the impact of variation in microtine rodent population characteristics, such as cycle length and amplitude, on the population dynamics of the boreal, clonal moss Hylocomium splendens. We use experimental and observational demographic data to construct 127 scenarios representing all combinations of disturbance type (gap formation and/or clipping), period (cyclic with 4, 6, 12, or 24 years between rodent peaks; or acyclic with constant or stochastically varying annual disturbance severity) and disturbance severity (fraction of individuals affected by disturbance in each year relative to the maximum disturbance carried out in the field experiment; seven levels). Population data collected in the field during 13 years were used as a baseline scenario. By subjecting all scenarios to stochastic matrix modeling, we demonstrate considerable impact of microtine rodent on the population dynamics of H. splendens, most notably when rodent populations fluctuate with short periods and high peak disturbance severities. Under the same average disturbance severity, H. splendens population growth rates are highest in acyclic scenarios and are progressively reduced with increasing peak disturbance severities (i.e., with increasing period). Stochastic elasticity analyses show that in less variable environments mature segment survival contributes more to the population growth rate, while in more variable environments the regeneration pathway (branching of older parts of the plant) plays a stronger role, inevitably leading to lower population fitness. Our results support the hypothesis that breakdown of cyclic rodent population dynamics accentuates increase in the abundance of H. splendens and other large bryophytes in boreal forests in Norway, observed empirically in recent years and primarily ascribed to climatic change.