Use of fecundity measured directly throughout the breeding season to test a source-sink demographic model

Populations of landbirds (bird species that occupy terrestrial habitats for most of their life cycle) are declining throughout North America (north of Mexico) and Europe, yet little is known about how demography is driving this trend. A recent model of 5 geographically separated populations of Cerulean Warblers (Dendroica cerulea) that was based on within-season sampling of nest survival and fledgling success shows that all populations are sinks (annual reproduction is consistently less than annual adult mortality). I tested this indirect model by directly measuring fecundity (number of female fledglings/female) during the breeding season for 2 years in a Cerulean Warbler population occupying a mature forest in southwestern Michigan (U.S.A.) I determined territories of male birds on the basis of male plumage characters and phases of the nesting cycle (2007) and on uniquely color-banded males (2008). I transferred locations of identified males to topographic maps. I counted all fledglings in territories from May to July each year. The model I tested may apply only to single-brooded species; therefore, I searched the literature to estimate the percentage of single-brooded species in North America. The breeding season of Cerulean Warblers was short- nearly all nests were initiated from mid-May to late June. Nest predation and brood parasitism were primary and rare causes of nest failure, respectively. Significantly fewer Cerulean Warblers fledged from parasitized than from nonparasitized nests. Fledgling survival required to maintain the population size was well above previously published values for Neotropical migrants. Single-brooded species comprise 62% of North American breeding bird species for which the number of broods per year is known; I believe my results may apply to these species. The consistency between identification of populations as sources or sinks on the basis of either model estimates or direct measurements suggests that a demographic model relying on within-season sampling of fecundity is adequate to determine population status of single-brooded avian populations. In addition, on the basis of results of previous studies, annual adult survival rate of the Cerulean Warbler is typical of parulid warblers that are not declining. Thus, low fecundity, here determined with different quantitative methods, can drive status of landbird species with high-observed survival.     

Bayesian networks make LOPA more effective,QRA more transparent and flexible,and thus safety more definable!

Quantitative risk analysis is in principle an ideal method to map one’s risks, but it has limitations due to the complexity of models, scarcity of data, remaining uncertainties, and above all because effort, cost, and time requirements are heavy. Also, software is not cheap, the calculations are not quite transparent, and the flexibility to look at various scenarios and at preventive and protective options is limited. So, the method is considered as a last resort for determination of risks. Simpler methods such as LOPA that focus on a particular scenario and assessment of protection for a defined initiating event are more popular. LOPA may however not cover the whole range of credible scenarios, and calamitous surprises may emerge.In the past few decades, Artificial Intelligence university groups, such as the Decision Systems Laboratory of the University of Pittsburgh, have developed Bayesian approaches to support decision making in situations where one has to weigh gains and costs versus risks. This paper will describe details of such an approach and will provide some examples of both discrete random variables, such as the probability values in a LOPA, and continuous distributions, which can better reflect the uncertainty in data.     

The Precautionary Principle for Environmental Management: A Defensive-expenditure Application

The Precautionary Principle has emerged in response to the need for an effective method for dealing with risks and uncertainties in environmental management. In essence, the Principle requires action to prevent serious and irreversible damage even before harm can be scientifically demonstrated or economically assessed. Proponents argue that the Principle should be applied in situations where both the probability and value of irreversible damage are unknown. The lack of these particular data prevent a full cost–benefit analysis, but permit application of the Principle through the defensive-expenditure approach. How much would the community be required to pay to fund alternatives to maintain the environment and so defend existing levels of utility? Through the application of risk analysis and the stochastic dominance technique, a range of options and outcomes can be examined incorporating the using available information within a framework consistent with economic rationality. An extended risk simulation is applied to an environmental issue where there is a risk of serious and irreversible damage to the environment, namely, protection of the Barmah-Millewa forest-wetland in Australia.     

Experimental studies in the electrostatic precipitation of high-resistivity particulate

A pulsed charging system is described that eliminates reverse ionization inelectrostatic precipitation. The motivating concept is a purely electrical approach. The fundamental characteristic of this method is the relaxation time of the precipitated particulate. Laboratory studies indicate that this powering concept could increase precipitator performance on high-resistivity particulate by more than two orders of magnitude. Pilot results are also presented.     

Integrating lidar and satellite optical depth with ambient monitoring for 3-dimensional particulate characterization

A combination of in-situ PM_2.5, sunphotometers, upward pointing lidar and satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) instruments have been employed to better understand variability in the correlation between AOD and PM_2.5 at the surface. Previous studies have shown good correlation between these measures, especially in the US east, and encouraged the use of satellite data for spatially interpolating between ground sensors. This work shows that cases of weak correlation can be better understood with knowledge of whether the aerosol is confined to the surface planetary boundary layer (PBL) or aloft. Lidar apportionment of the fraction of aerosol optical depth that is within the PBL can be scaled to give better agreement with surface PM_2.5 than does the total column amount. The study has shown that lidar combined with surface and remotely sensed data might be strategically used to improve our understanding of long-range or regionally transported pollutants in multiple dimensions.     

Is globalisation linked to CO2 emission? Evidence from OECD nations

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - An extensive number of studies uses trade-to-GDP as a proxy for globalisation in environmental research. Globalisation encompasses much more than just...     

Insights into effects of algae on decay and distribution of bacterial pathogens in recreational water: Implications for microbial risk management

The decay and distribution of bacterial pathogens in water is an important information for the health risk assessment to guide water safety management, and suspended algae might affect bacterial pathogens in water. This study established microcosms to investigate the effects of algae-related factors on the representative indicators and opportunistic pathogen species in water. We found that suspended algae increased the persistence of targeted species by 1-2 orders of magnitude of concentrations ...     

Sustainability aspects of vegetable production in the peri-urban environment of Bogotá, Colombia

Although the peri-urban region around Bogotá, Colombia contains a diversified horticulture sector, local vegetable production suffers from a critical lack of research and availability of un-biased, scientifically validated information on crop management. In this study, we identify current trends and deficiencies in fertilisation and pest management for local vegetable production. We relate pesticide type with target pests, evaluate temporal patterns in pesticide and fertiliser use for a key crop (i.e. spinach) and conduct basic nutrient budget accounting. Personal interviews with vegetable growers were combined with a detailed follow-up of management activities and soil nutrient profiles on pilot farms in two different peri-urban municipalities. Most (84%) vegetable growers relied on personal experience, and indicated a lack of unbiased information on fertiliser effectiveness and pesticide action spectra. The majority of farmers used pesticide mixtures on a calendar basis and commonly applied products below recommended doses. Soil nutrient accounts indicate insufficient fertilisation and a progressive depletion of key nutrients. Extraction rates for the principal vegetable crops exceeded by 33.6%, 20.5% and 93.0% soil nutrient availability of N, P and K, respectively. Organic products are included in local fertilisation schemes, with chicken manure as the principal source, at an average application rate of 6 t ha^?1. Our findings could help policymakers and local institutions set a research and extension agenda to promote sustainable peri-urban vegetable production and help secure peri-urban livelihoods while ensuring healthy and safe horticultural production.     

How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather‐related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision‐making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national‐level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.     

Erratum to: Estimating urban water demand under conditions of rapid growth: the case of Shanghai

Regional Environmental Change - Many of the world’s major cities are expected to face significant water shortages in coming decades, largely due to increased demand arising from economic and...