Critical considerations for future action during the second commitment period: A small islands' perspective

If the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be achieved, Parties must commit themselves to meeting meaningful long‐term targets that, based on current knowledge, would minimize the possibility of irreversible climate change. Current indications are that a global mean temperature rise in excess of 2–3 °C would enhance the risk of destabilizing the climate system as we know it, and possibly lead to catastrophic change such as a shutdown of the deep ocean circulation, and the disintegration of the West Arctic Ice Sheet. Observations have shown that for many small island developing States (SIDS), life‐sustaining ecosystems such as coral reefs, already living near the limit of thermal tolerance, are highly climate‐sensitive, and can suffer severe damage from exposure to sea temperatures as low as 1 °C above the seasonal maximum. Other natural systems (e.g., mangroves) are similarly susceptible to relatively low temperature increases, coupled with small increments of sea level rise. Economic and social sectors, including agriculture and human health, face similar challenges from the likely impacts of projected climate change. In light of known thresholds, this paper presents the view that SIDS should seek support for a temperature cap not exceeding 1.5–2.0 °C above the pre‐industrial mean. It is argued that a less stringent post‐Kyoto target would frustrate achievement of the UNFCCC objective. The view is expressed that all countries which emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases should commit to binding reduction targets in the second commitment period, but that targets for developing countries should be less stringent than those agreed for developed countries. Such an arrangement would be faithful to the principles of equity and would ensure that the right of Parties to attain developed country status would not be abrogated.     

SOCIAL WELL-BEING AND WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: For many years, Federal water resources projects have been subjected to benefit-cost analysis to establish their economic feasibility. Several years ago social well-being was added as a consideration. This paper discusses the state-of-the-art in analyzing and evaluating aspects of social well-being. It stresses current short-falls and advocates a direction for further efforts.     

Materials information systems for public policy making

The objective of an information system should be to provide the decision maker, at the time of his decision, with a full, acute, and accurate awareness of the varying consequences of his options. This article looks at the materials information systems used by the US government in its general relationship to such a goal. More importantly, it attempts to evaluate systematically the specific requirements that such systems should meet to satisfy such a goal.     

TIDE GATE INFLUENCES ON A TIDAL MARSH1

ABSTRACT: Construction of a tide gate at the mouth of the north channel of the Savannah River in Georgia has resulted in significant changes in salinities influencing marsh community changes. The tide gate is directly responsible for a 2 to 6 mile upstream displacement of salt water in the river. In the marsh, soil salinities ranged from 0.0 ppt at upstream sites to 12 ppt at downstream sites when the tide gate was in operation. Within two months of taking the tide gate out of operation, interstitial salinities at the downstream sites dropped to 4 ppt. Influences of the tide gate on marsh vegetation were modeled in a geographic information system. With the tide gate out of operation, the model predicts that freshwater marsh would increase in area by 340 percent.     

Air‐Water Temperature Relationships in the Trout Streams of Southeastern Minnesota's Carbonate‐Sandstone Landscape

Carbonate‐sandstone geology in southeastern Minnesota creates a heterogeneous landscape of springs, seeps, and sinkholes that supply groundwater into streams. Air temperatures are effective predictors of water temperature in surface‐water dominated streams. However, no published work investigates the relationship between air and water temperatures in groundwater‐fed streams (GWFS) across watersheds. We used simple linear regressions to examine weekly air‐water temperature relationships for 40 GWFS in southeastern Minnesota. A 40‐stream, composite linear regression model has a slope of 0.38, an intercept of 6.63, and R² of 0.83. The regression models for GWFS have lower slopes and higher intercepts in comparison to surface‐water dominated streams. Regression models for streams with high R² values offer promise for use as predictive tools for future climate conditions. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regime of groundwater‐fed systems, but will do so at a slower rate than surface‐water dominated systems. A regression model of intercept vs. slope can be used to identify streams for which water temperatures are more meteorologically than groundwater controlled, and thus more vulnerable to climate change. Such relationships can be used to guide restoration vs. management strategies to protect trout streams.     

Lead traceability along soil-melliferous flora-bee family-apiary products chain

Indirect measures were considered to study the lead transfer along the soil-melliferous flora-bee family-apiary products food chain. The concentrations of total and bioavailable lead in the soil were first investigated. Next, the lead level in different organs of melliferous flora and subsequently in the bee family and apiary products was measured. The results indicate a decrease in contamination as follows: honeybees > drones > propolis > wax > bee larvae > honey > royal jelly. The statistical analysis highlights the "lead pollution bioindicator" role of honeybees, honey and propolis. The risk factor parameter allows the prediction of the most impacted month and the least impacted of the melliferous season.     

Modeling Atmospheric Mercury Deposition in the Vicinity of Power Plants

Abstract

Two mathematical models of the atmospheric fate and transport of mercury (Hg), an Eulerian grid–based model and a Gaussian plume model, are used to calculate the atmospheric deposition of Hg in the vicinity (i.e., within 50 km) of five coal–fired power plants. The former is applied using two different horizontal resolutions: coarse (84 km) and fine (16.7 km). More than 96% of the power plant Hg emissions are calculated with the plume model to be transported beyond 50 km from the plants. The grid–based model predicts a lower fraction to be transported beyond 50 km: >91% with a coarse resolution and >95% with a fine resolution. The contribution of the power plant emissions to total Hg deposition within a radius of 50 km from the plants is calculated to be <8% with the plume model, <14% with the Eulerian model with a coarse resolution, and <10% with the Eulerian model with a fine resolution. The Eulerian grid–based model predicts greater local impacts than the plume model because of artificially enhanced vertical dispersion; the former predicts about twice as much Hg deposition as the latter when the area considered is commensurate with the resolution of the grid–based model. If one compares the local impacts for an area that is significantly less than the grid–based model resolution, then the grid–based model may predict lower local deposition than the plume model, because two compensating errors affect the results obtained with the grid–based model: initial dilution of the power plant emissions within one or more grid cells and enhanced vertical mixing to the ground.     

Apportionment of Ambient Primary and Secondary Pollutants during a 2001 Summer Study in Pittsburgh Using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency UNMIX

Abstract

Apportionment of primary and secondary pollutants during the summer 2001 Pittsburgh Air Quality Study (PAQS) is reported. Several sites were included in PAQS, with the main site (the supersite) adjacent to the Carnegie Mellon University campus in Schenley Park. One of the additional sampling sites was located at the National Energy Technology Laboratory, located ～18 km southeast of downtown Pittsburgh. Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) mass, gas-phase volatile organic material (VOM), particulate semivolatile and nonvolatile organic material (NVOM), and ammonium sulfate were apportioned at the two sites into their primary and secondary contributions using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency UNMIX 2.3 multivariate receptor modeling and analysis software. A portion of each of these species was identified as originating from gasoline and diesel primary mobile sources. Some of the organic material was formed from local secondary transformation processes, whereas the great majority of the secondary sulfate was associated with regional transformation contributions. The results indicated that the diurnal patterns of secondary gas-phase VOM and particulate semivolatile and NVOM were not correlated with secondary ammonium sulfate contributions but were associated with separate formation pathways. These findings are consistent with the bulk of the secondary ammonium sulfate in the Pittsburgh area being the result of contributions from distant transport and, thus, decoupled from local activity involving organic pollutants in the metropolitan area.