Predicting Sustained Fire Spread in Tasmanian Native Grasslands

Fire is widely used in conservation management of native grasslands. Burning is often carried out under conditions that are marginal for sustained fire spread, and therefore it would be useful to be able to predict fire sustainability. There is currently no model allowing such prediction in temperate grasslands. This study aims to identify the environmental variables that determine whether fires will sustain in native grasslands in Tasmania, Australia, and develop a model for predicting fire sustainability in this vegetation. Fuel characteristics and weather conditions were recorded for 111 test fires. Logistic regression modeling identified dead fuel moisture content, fuel load, and percentage dead fuel as predictors of fire sustainability. Classification tree modeling identified dead fuel moisture and fuel load threshold values for sustaining fires. There was also evidence indicating a percentage dead fuel threshold. The logistic regression model and a model combining the results of the classification tree and the percentage dead fuel threshold accurately predicted the outcomes of a small set of experimental fires. These models are likely to have utility in predicting fire sustainability in Tasmanian grasslands and are also likely to be applicable to similar grasslands elsewhere.     

Dynamics of calling by tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nestmates

The begging display of nestling passerine birds has become a model for examining the evolution of animal signals. A particular problem for nestlings when transmitting begging signals to parents may be interference from nestmates. The strategies used by nestlings to reduce signal interference have not been studied, yet potentially contribute to the design of these complex displays. In this study, we recorded the begging calls of nestling tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) when alone and with a begging nestmate, to determine whether nestlings changed the output, structure or timing of their calls in ways that would reduce acoustic interference. We found that nestlings increased their call rate in the presence of a begging nestmate, but did not alter the length, amplitude or frequency of their calls. They also appeared not to adjust the timing of their calls to avoid those of nestmates. Contrary to expectation, nestling calls became more similar in some aspects when nestmates called together. An increase in call rate in the presence of a begging nestmate should increase the likelihood that a parent detects an individual's calls. However, if all nestlings increase their calling rate in response to competitors, then the overall level of acoustic interference across the brood is potentially increased, an effect exacerbated by the tendency for call similarity to increase when calling together. We discuss how increasing call rate may improve detectability despite this effect and we also examine how an increase in rate and call similarity may serve to produce a strong brood signal.     

Manipulation of dietary protein and nonstarch polysaccharide to control swine manure emissions

Odor and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from stored pig (Sus scrofa) manure were monitored for response to changes in the crude protein level (168 or 139 g kg(-1), as-fed basis) and nonstarch polysaccharide (NSP) content [i.e., control, or modified with beet pulp (Beta vulgaris L.), cornstarch, or xylanase] of diets fed to pigs in a production setting. Each diet was fed to one of eight pens of pigs according to a 2 x 4, full-factorial design, replicated over three time blocks with different groups of animals and random assignment of diets. Manure from each treatment was characterized and stored in a separate, ventilated, 200-L vessel. Repeated measurements of odor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the vessels were taken every two weeks for eight weeks. Manure from high-protein diets had higher sulfur concentration and pH (P < or = 0.05). High-NSP (beet pulp) diets resulted in lower manure nitrogen and ammonia concentrations and pH (P < or = 0.05). Odor level and hedonic tone of exhaust air from the storage vessel headspaces were unaffected by the dietary treatments. Mean CO2 and CH4 emissions (1400 and 42 g d(-1) m(-3) manure, respectively) increased with lower dietary protein (P < or = 0.05). The addition of xylanase to high-protein diets caused a decrease in manure CO2 emissions, but an increase when added to low-protein diets (P < or = 0.05). Nitrous oxide emissions were negligible. Contrary to other studies, these results do not support the use of dietary protein reduction to reduce emissions from stored swine manure.     

Detection and isolation of fetal cells from maternal blood using the flourescence-activated cell sorter (FACS)

The presence of fetal cells in the maternal circulation during pregnancy has been suggested by repeated observations of small numbers of cells containing Y chromatin or a Y chromosome in the blood of pregnant women. With the fluorescence-activitated cell sorter (FACS), we have used antibodies to a paternal cell surface (HLA) antigen, not present in the mother, to select fetal cells from the lymphocyte fractions of a series of maternal blood samples, collected as early as 15 weeks of gestation. These sorted cells have been examined for a second paternal genetic marker, Y chromatin. Y chromatin-containing cells were found among the sorted cells from prenatal maternal blood specimens in 8 pregnancies subsequently producing male infants whose lymphocytes reacted with the same antibodies to paternal antigen used for sorting with the FACS. In each of 17 pregnancies resulting in male infants who failed to inherit the antigen detected by the antibodies used for cell sorting, Y chromatin-containing cells were not found prenatally. The use of two paternal genetic markers, a cell surface antigen and nuclear Y chromatin, to identify fetal cells in maternal blood permits us to conclude that these cells are present in the mother's circulation, as early as 15 weeks gestation. Further development of the techniques reported here could lead to widespread screening of maternal blood samples during pregnancy for detection of fetal genetic abnormalities.     

Polychlorinated chemical residues in fish from major watersheds near the Great Lakes, 1979

Over 50 non-PCB polyhalogenated organic chemicals have been identified by GC/MS in fish from the Great Lakes and other major watersheds near the Great Lakes. p,p′-DDE, hexachlorobenzene, and components of tech-chlordane were the most frequently found chemicals. Also described are advances in sample preparation methodology which allow the identification of many frequently occuring unusual chemicals. Several chemicals not previously reported in environmental samples are identified.     

A CASE STUDY IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FEDERAL WATER POLLUTION CONTROL ACT AMENDMENTS1

ABSTRACT: A general model of the policy implementation process is utilized to facilitate a discussion of the way Section 208 of PL 92-500 is being carried out on an areawide basis. A study of four “208 areas” in the “New York-Philadelphia corridor” highlights the operation of several variables used in the model. The varying political and socioeconomic conditions in geographic areas which have similar water quality problems are leading to the evolution of vastly different implementing structures, or institutional arrangements. The analysis suggests that these differences may have important implications for the success of the program in each of these areas. A major underlying theme is that such problems are characteristic of the 208 process nationwide and reflect general difficulties associated with managing water quality in a federal system.     

Precursor-based hierarchical Bayesian approach for rare event frequency estimation: A case of oil spill accidents

Due to a scarcity of data, the estimate of the frequency of a rare event is a consistently challenging problem in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). However, the use of precursor data has been shown to help in obtaining more accurate estimates. Moreover, the use of hyper-priors to represent prior parameters in the hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) generates more consistent results in comparison to the conventional Bayesian method. This study proposes a framework that uses a precursor-based HBA for rare event frequency estimation. The proposed method is demonstrated using the recent BP Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico. The conventional Bayesian method is also applied to the same case study. The results show that the proposed approach is more effective with regards to the following perspectives: (a) using the HBA in the proposed framework provides an opportunity to take full advantage of the sparse data available and add information from indirect but relevant data; (b) the HBA is more sensitive to changes in precursor data than the conventional Bayesian method; and (c) using hyper-priors to represent prior parameters, the HBA is able to model the variability that can exist among different sources of data.     

Mobilisation and protest: environmental justice in Durban,South Africa

This paper examines the ability of civil society actors to champion environmental justice in an industrial risk society in South Africa by way of mobilisation and protest action. This paper presents viewpoints from key stakeholders at the Durban city level and three local case study sites to examine social capital relations to achieve environmental justice. It explores how civil society engages in social capital for mobilisation with itself and subsequent protest actions to engage with government and industry. The paper highlights that social actor response to engage in social capital for mobilisation and protests is best understood in relation to the socio-economic and political positioning of individuals or organisations.