Land-use dynamics in a southern Illinois (USA) watershed

The Cache River of southernmost Illinois is used as a case study for developing and demonstrating an approach to quantitatively link (1) national agricultural policy and global agricultural markets, (2) landowner's decisions on land use, (3) spatial patterns of land use at a watershed scale, and (4) hydrologic impacts, thus providing a basis to predict, under a certain set of circumstances, the environmental consequences of economic and political decisions made at larger spatial scales. The heart of the analysis is an estimation, using logistic regression, of the affect of crop prices and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) rental rates on farmland owner's decisions whether to reenroll in the CRP or return to crop production. This analysis shows that reasonable ranges for crop prices (80%–150% of 1985–1995 values) and CRP rental rates (0–125% of 1985–1995 rates) result in a range of 3%–92% of CRP lands being returned to crop production, with crop prices having a slightly greater effect than CRP rental rates. Four crop price/CRP rental rate scenarios are used to display resulting land-use patterns, and their effect on sediment loads, a critical environmental quality parameter in this case, using the agricultural non point source (AGNPS) model. These scenarios demonstrate the importance of spatial pattern of land uses on hydrological and ecological processes within watersheds. The approach developed can be adapted for use by local governments and watershed associations whose goals are to improve watershed resources and environmental quality.     

Forecasting relative impacts of land use on anadromous fish habitat to guide conservation planning.

Land use change can adversely affect water quality and freshwater ecosystems, yet our ability to predict how systems will respond to different land uses, particularly rural-residential development, is limited by data availability and our understanding of biophysical thresholds. In this study, we use spatially explicit parcel-level data to examine the influence of land use (including urban, rural-residential, and vineyard) on salmon spawning substrate quality in tributaries of the Russian River in California. We develop a land use change model to forecast the probability of losses in high-quality spawning habitat and recommend priority areas for incentive-based land conservation efforts. Ordinal logistic regression results indicate that all three land use types were negatively associated with spawning substrate quality, with urban development having the largest marginal impact. For two reasons, however, forecasted rural-residential and vineyard development have much larger influences on decreasing spawning substrate quality relative to urban development. First, the land use change model estimates 10 times greater land use conversion to both rural-residential and vineyard compared to urban. Second, forecasted urban development is concentrated in the most developed watersheds, which already have poor spawning substrate quality, such that the marginal response to future urban development is less significant. To meet the goals of protecting salmonid spawning habitat and optimizing investments in salmon recovery, we suggest investing in watersheds where future rural-residential development and vineyards threaten high-quality fish habitat, rather than the most developed watersheds, where land values are higher.     

Small Female Upper Extremity Interaction with a Deploying Side Air Bag

This paper presents a study characterizing the interaction between a deploying side air bag and a small female upper extremity. The results are based on twelve tests with small female cadavers, and fifteen tests with the instrumented SAE 5th percentile female upper extremity attached to the 5th percentile Hybrid III female dummy. The upper extremity was loaded by a deploying seat mounted thoracic side air bag in a static test environment. Three inflators were used that varied in peak pressure and pressure onset rate. Despite kinematic differences between the dummy and cadaver, the moments recorded in the cadaver and dummy were similar. Chondral and osteochondral fractures in the cadaver elbow joints were identified in seven of the twelve cadaver tests, while a simple fracture of the distal humerus head was observed in one test. A linear logistic regression analysis was performed to correlate occurrence of recorded injury and the test parameters. Injury risk functions were constructed using age, forearm acceleration, elbow moment, and air bag inflator level as variables.     

Movement patterns of juvenile sand tigers (Carcharias taurus) along the east coast of the USA

To date, movement patterns of juvenile sand tigers (Carcharias taurus) along the east coast of the USA have been loosely defined. Given the magnitude of the purported decline in the sand tiger population in the western North Atlantic (WNA), characterization of the species’ movement patterns throughout this broad area is essential for the effective management and recovery of this population. Using passive acoustic telemetry, pop-up satellite archival transmitting tags, and conventional fishery-dependent tag/recapture data, seasonal movements of juvenile sand tigers (ages 0–2 years; <125 cm fork length) were monitored between Maine and Florida along the US east coast from 2007 to 2013. Collectively, tag data indicated that juvenile sand tigers undergo extensive seasonal coastal migrations moving between summer (June–October) habitat (Maine to Delaware Bay) and winter (December–April) habitat (Cape Hatteras to central Florida) during the spring (April–June) and fall/early winter (October–December). Juvenile sand tigers occurred in a wide range of temperatures (9.8–26.9 °C) throughout the year, but spent the majority of their time in water from 12 to 20 °C. Given the extensive movements and continuous utilization of relatively shallow (<80 m) nearshore waters exhibited by these relatively small individuals throughout their first years of life, it is imperative that precautions be taken to limit negative effects of anthropogenic interactions on this species (i.e., fisheries bycatch, coastal degradation) in an effort to rebuild and sustain the WNA population.     

Using expert knowledge to support Endangered Species Act decision-making for data-deficient species

Many questions relevant to conservation decision-making are characterized by extreme uncertainty due to lack of empirical data and complexity of the underlying ecologic processes, leading to a rapid increase in the use of structured protocols to elicit expert knowledge. Published ecologic applications often employ a modified Delphi method, where experts provide judgments anonymously and mathematical aggregation techniques are used to combine judgments. The Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) differs in its behavioral approach to synthesizing individual judgments into a fully specified probability distribution for an unknown quantity. We used the SHELF protocol remotely to assess extinction risk of three subterranean aquatic species that are being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We provided experts an empirical threat assessment for each known locality over a video conference and recorded judgments on the probability of population persistence over four generations with online submission forms and R-shiny apps available through the SHELF package. Despite large uncertainty for all populations, there were key differences between species’ risk of extirpation based on spatial variation in dominant threats, local land use and management practices, and species’ microhabitat. The resulting probability distributions provided decision makers with a full picture of uncertainty that was consistent with the probabilistic nature of risk assessments. Discussion among experts during SHELF's behavioral aggregation stage clearly documented dominant threats (e.g., development, timber harvest, animal agriculture, and cave visitation) and their interactions with local cave geology and species’ habitat. Our virtual implementation of the SHELF protocol demonstrated the flexibility of the approach for conservation applications operating on budgets and time lines that can limit in-person meetings of geographically dispersed experts.     

Varying responses of northeastern North American amphibians to the chytrid pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is widespread among amphibians in northeastern North America. It is unknown, however, whether Bd has the potential to cause extensive amphibian mortalities in northeastern North America as have occurred elsewhere. In the laboratory, we exposed seven common northeastern North American amphibian species to Bd to assess the likelihood of population-level effects from the disease. We exposed larval wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and postmetamorphic frogs of six other species to two different strains of Bd, a northeastern strain (JEL404) and a strain that caused die-offs of amphibians in Panama (JEL423), under ideal in vitro growth conditions for Bd. Exposed American toads (Anaxyrus americanus) all died; thus, this species may be the most likely to die from Bd-caused disease in the wild. Both Bd strains were associated with mortalities of wood frogs, although half the metamorphs survived. The Bd strain from Panama killed metamorphic green frogs (L. clamitans), whereas the northeastern strain did not, which means novel strains of Bd may lead to death even when local strains may not. No mortality was observed in four species (bullfrogs [L. catesbeianus], northern leopard frogs [L. pipiens], spring peepers [Pseudacris crucifer], and blue-spotted salamanders [Ambystoma laterale]) and in some individuals of green frogs and wood frogs that we exposed. This finding suggests these six species may be Bd vectors. Our results show that systematic exposures of amphibian species to Bd in the laboratory may be a good first step in the identification of species susceptible to Bd-caused declines and in directing regional conservation efforts aimed at susceptible species.     

Correction to: Status and trends of circumpolar peregrine falcon and gyrfalcon populations

While collating contributions and comments from 36 researchers, the coordinating authors accidentally omitted Dr. Suzanne Carrière from the list of contributing co-authors. Dr. Carrière’s data are described in Tables 1 and 3, Figure 2 and several places in the narrative. The new author list is thus updated in this article.