SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS,CALIBRATION, AND VALIDATIONS FOR A MULTISITE AND MULTIVARIABLE SWAT MODEL1

The ability of a watershed model to mimic specified watershed processes is assessed through the calibration and validation process. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model was implemented in the Beaver Reservoir Watershed of Northwest Arkansas. The objectives were to: (1) provide detailed information on calibrating and applying a multisite and multivariable SWAT model; (2) conduct sensitivity analysis; and (3) perform calibration and validation at three different sites for flow, sediment, total phosphorus (TP), and nitrate‐nitrogen (NO₃‐N) plus nitrite‐nitrogen (NO₂‐N). Relative sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify parameters that most influenced predicted flow, sediment, and nutrient model outputs. A multi objective function was defined that consisted of optimizing three statistics: percent relative error (RE), Nash‐Sutcliffe Coefficient (R_NS²), and coefficient of determination (R²). This function was used to successfully calibrate and validate a SWAT model of Beaver Reservoir Watershed at multi‐sites while considering multivariables. Calibration and validation of the model is a key factor in reducing uncertainty and increasing user confidence in its predictive abilities, which makes the application of the model effective. Information on calibration and validation of multisite, multivariable SWAT models has been provided to assist watershed modelers in developing their models to achieve watershed management goals.     

Key beliefs influencing young drivers’ engagement with social interactive technology on their smartphones: A qualitative study

Objective: The main aim of this study was to identify young drivers’ underlying beliefs (i.e., behavioral, normative, and control) regarding initiating, monitoring/reading, and responding to social interactive technology (i.e., functions on a Smartphone that allow the user to communicate with other people).

Method: This qualitative study was a beliefs elicitation study in accordance with the theory of planned behavior and sought to elicit young drivers’ behavioral (i.e., advantages, disadvantages), normative (i.e., who approves, who disapproves), and control beliefs (i.e., barriers, facilitators) that underpin social interactive technology use while driving. Young drivers (N = 26) aged 17 to 25 years took part in an interview or focus group discussion.

Results: Though differences emerged between the 3 behaviors of initiating, monitoring/reading, and responding for each of the behavioral, normative, and control belief categories, the strongest distinction was within the behavioral beliefs category (e.g., communicating with the person that they were on the way to meet was an advantage of initiating; being able to determine whether to respond was an advantage of monitoring/reading; and communicating with important people was an advantage of responding). Normative beliefs were similar for initiating and responding behaviors (e.g., friends and peers more likely to approve than other groups) and differences emerged for monitoring/reading (e.g., parents were more likely to approve of this behavior than initiating and responding). For control beliefs, there were differences between the beliefs regarding facilitators of these behaviors (e.g., familiar roads and conditions facilitated initiating; having audible notifications of an incoming communication facilitated monitoring/reading; and receiving a communication of immediate importance facilitated responding); however, the control beliefs that presented barriers were consistent across the 3 behaviors (e.g., difficult traffic/road conditions).

Conclusion: The current study provides an important addition to the extant literature and supports emerging research that suggests that initiating, monitoring/reading, and responding may indeed be distinct behaviors with different underlying motivations.     

钢管混凝土柱温度场简化计算方法

钢管混凝土柱是建筑承重结构的重要组成部分,其耐火极限研究尤为重要。温度场计算作为抗火研究的基础,在保证精确度的前提下要做到简单实用,为高效的抗火设计提供有利条件。通过有限元软件ABAQUS模拟构件温度场,分析80种不同工况下圆、方形构件温度场分布特点,并考虑钢管厚度、截面尺寸等因素,提出了钢管及混凝土温度简化计算公式。通过试验数据、模拟数据对公式进行调校验证,结果表明计算精度满足工程设计要求。     

乌苏-奎屯-独山子地区生态系统服务功能变化研究

在3S技术的支持下,以1990年和2005年的TM图像解译数据为基础,采用谢高地的评价方法分析了乌苏-奎屯-独山子地区景观类型与生态系统服务功能的变化特征,为研究该地区水土开发与生态环境演变提供了依据。结果表明,1990-2005年,乌苏-奎屯-独山子地区农田、灌木林地、城镇及工业用地、盐碱地、水域和未利用地面积增加,其他乔木林地、草地、冰川和沼泽面积均减少;区域生态系统服务功能从1990年的9 182.84×106元减少到2005年的8 627.96×106元,减少量为554.87×106元,减少率为6.04%。保护区域生态环境,恢复和提高区域生态系统服务功能是该区域生态环境建设的重要任务。     

A SIMULATION OF RIVER-BASIN RESPONSE TO MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL FORCING: THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN EXPERIMENT (SRBEX)1

ABSTRACT: A mesoscale meteorological model, a surface hydrology model, and a ground-water hydrology model are linked to simulate the hydrographic response of a large river basin to a single storm. Synoptic climatology is employed to choose a representative hydro-climatic event. The mesoscale meteorological model uses three nested domains to simulate relatively high-resolution precipitation over a sub-basin of the Susquehanna River Basin. The hydrology models simulate surface runoff and ground-water baseflow using both analyzed and simulated precipitation. The hydrologic abstractions are handled using both Curve Number and Green-Ampt routines. To support the linkage of the numerical models, special attention is given to data resampling and reprojection. The mesoscale meteorological model simulation captures the spatial and temporal structure of the storm event, while the hydrology models represent the timing of the event well. The Curve Number method generates a realistic hydrograph with both analyzed and simulated precipitation. In contrast, the hydrographic response generated by the Green-Ampt routine is inferior. Several interrelated factors contribute to these results, including: the nature of the precipitation event chosen for the experiment; the tendency of the mesoscale meteorological model to underpredict low intensity, widespread precipitation in this case; and the influence of the surface soil-texture characteristics on infiltration rates.     

Food sharing by sibling vs nonsibling spiny mice (Acomys cahirinus)

Summary In comparison to paired unfamiliar unrelated age-mates, pairs of familiar littermate (sibling) spiny mice (Acomys cahirinus) were more active in exploring a novel environment containing limited food resources and engaged in a greater degree of cooperative feeding or food sharing. When animals born in successive litters were tested, however, familiar siblings did not differ from unfamiliar nonsiblings on measures of food sharing even though subsequent data indicate that such siblings could recognize one another. Young animals were found to feed for longer periods of time than their older cagemate regardless of whether the latter animal was a familiar sibling or an unfamiliar nonsibling.     

Evaluating sources of indoor air pollution

Evaluation of indoor air pollution problems requires an understanding of the relationship between sources, air movement, and outdoor air exchange. Research is underway to investigate these relationships. A three-phase program is being implemented: 1) Environmental chambers are used to provide source emission factors for specific indoor pollutants; 2) An IAQ (Indoor Air Quality) model has been developed to calculate indoor pollutant concentrations based on chamber emissions data and the air exchange and air movement within the indoor environment; and 3) An IAQ test house is used to conduct experiments to evaluate the model results. Examples are provided to show how this coordinated approach can be used to evaluate specific sources of indoor air pollution. Two sources are examined: 1) para-dichlorobenzene emissions from solid moth repellant; and 2) particle emissions from unvented kerosene heaters. The evaluation process for both sources followed the three-phase approach discussed above. Para-dichlorobenzene emission factors were determined by small chamber testing at EPA's Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory. Particle emission factors for the kerosene heaters were developed in large chambers at the J. B. Pierce Foundation Laboratory. Both sources were subsequently evaluated in EPA's IAQ test house. The IAQ model predictions showed good agreement with the test house measurements when appropriate values were provided for source emissions, outside air exchange, in-house air movement, and deposition on "sink" surfaces.     

Using cellular automata for integrated modelling of socio-environmental systems

Cellular automata provide the key to a dynamic modelling and simulation framework that integrates socio-economic with environmental models, and that operates at both micro and macro geographical scales. An application to the problem of forecasting the effect of climate change on a small island state suggests that such modelling techniques could help planners and policy makers design more effective policies — policies better tuned both to specific local needs and to overall socio-economic and environmental constraints.Paper presented at the Workshop on GIS Applications in Coastal Zone Management Of Small Island States, Barbados, April 20–22, 1994. RIKS publication 905000/94100, April 1994.     

Potential Impacts of Global Warming on the Diversity and Distribution of Stream Insects in South Korea

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two‐thirds of Odonata and one‐third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. Impacto Potencial del Calentamiento Global sobre la Diversidad y la Distribución de Insectos de Arroyo en Corea del Sur