BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

Improvements of nano-SiO2 on sludge/fly ash mortar

Sewage sludge ash has been widely applied to cementitious materials. In this study, in order to determine effects of nano-SiO(2) additives on properties of sludge/fly ash mortar, different amounts of nano-SiO(2) were added to sludge/fly ash mortar specimens to investigate their physical properties and micro-structures. A water-binding ratio of 0.7 was assigned to the mix. Substitution amounts of 0%, 10%, 20%, and 30% of sludge/fly ash (1:1 ratio) were proposed. Moreover, 0%, 1%, 2%, and 3% of nano-SiO(2) was added to the mix. Tests, including SEM and compressive strength, were carried out on mortar specimens cured at 3, 7, and 28 days. Results showed that sludge/fly ash can make the crystals of cement hydration product finer. Moreover, crystals increased after nano-SiO(2) was added. Hence, nano-SiO(2) can improve the effects of sludge/fly ash on the hydration of mortar. Further, due to the low pozzolanic reaction active index of sludge ash, early compressive strengths of sludge/fly ash mortar were decreased. Yet, nano-SiO(2) could help produce hydration crystals, which implies that the addition of nano-SiO(2) to mortar can improve the influence of sludge/fly ash on the development of the early strength of the mortar.     

Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Genetic differentiation in a pelagic crustacean (Meganyctiphanes norvegica: Euphausiacea) from the North East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea

Meganyctiphanes norvegica (M. Sars)is a pelagic crustacean that plays a key role in marine food webs of North Atlantic Ocean and marginal seas. We studied eight population samples collected in the European Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. By means of single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP) and direct sequencing, we investigated a segment of 158 base pairs of the mitochondrial gene coding for the subunit 1 of NADH dehydrogenase. We found 12 sequence variants among the 385 individuals studied. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that 14.75% of the total genetic variability was explained by differences between populations, thus indicating absence of panmixia for these populations. Pairwise comparisons revealed three distinct genetic pools: the first one represented by Cadiz Bay, the second one by the Ligurian Sea, and the third one included all the NE Atlantic samples. We also investigated one population from the Alboran Sea (within the Mediterranean basin, east of the Strait of Gibraltar). This population was found to be genetically intermediate between the NE Atlantic samples and the Ligurian sample, suggesting that the restriction to the gene flow is not associated with the Strait of Gibraltar, but possibly with the Oran–Almeria oceanographic front. The present work indicates that M. norvegica, although endowed with a high dispersal capacity because of its pelagic habit, can develop separate breeding units inside the same oceanic basin (the Atlantic). Furthermore, the Ligurian sample should be considered as a distinct evolutionary entity, separated from the Atlantic population. Received: 2 May 1999 / Accepted: 26 November 1999     

Maternal investment in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta): reproductive costs and consequences of raising sons

Maternal investment in offspring is expected to vary according to offspring sex when the reproductive success of the progeny is a function of differential levels of parental expenditure. We conducted a longitudinal investigation of rhesus macaques to determine whether variation in male progeny production, measured with both DNA fingerprinting and short tandem repeat marker typing, could be traced back to patterns of maternal investment. Males weigh significantly more than females at birth, despite an absence of sex differences in gestation length. Size dimorphism increases during infancy, with maternal rank associated with son’s, but not daughter’s, weight at the end of the period of maternal investment. Son’s, but not daughter’s, weight at 1 year of age is significantly correlated with adult weight, and male, but not female, weight accounts for a portion of the variance in reproductive success. Variance in annual offspring output was three- to fourfold higher in males than in females. We suggest that energetic costs of rearing sons could be buffered by fetal delivery of testosterone to the mother, which is aromatized to estrogen and fosters fat accumulation during gestation. We conclude that maternal investment is only slightly greater in sons than in daughters, with mothers endowing sons with extra resources because son, but not daughter, mass has ramifications for offspring sirehood. However, male reproductive tactics supersede maternal investment patterns as fundamental regulators of male fitness. Received: 23 July 1999 / Received in revised form: 23 February 2000 / Accepted: 13 March 2000     

A correction to: biological and oceanographic insights from larval labrid (Pisces: Labridae) identification using mtDNA sequences

Previously published mtDNA cytochrome b sequences for Xyrichtys novacula (Linnaeus) and two morphologically distinct types of Xyrichtys larvae (Pisces: Labridae) included human cytochrome b sequence, presumably due to sample contamination and/or poor preservation of sample DNA. Those sequences had been used to identify the two types of Xyrichtys larvae as X. novacula, but owing to the contamination, the identifications are invalid. Fresh specimens were collected: X.␣martinicensis (Cuvier and Valenciennes), X. novacula, X. splendens (Castelnau), and Xyrichtys sp. larvae of each of the two morphotypes (dorsal-forward eye and ventral-forward eye). The cytochrome b fragment was amplified from each specimen using the polymerase chain reaction. Comparison of the sequences with human cytochrome b sequence confirmed that the new sequences were not contaminated. The interspecific differences in Xyrichtys sequences were less than previously reported, but still greater than observed in many fish genera. Distance and parsimony analyses indicated that X. novacula and X. martinicensis were more closely related to each other than to X. splendens. This conclusion differs from our previous conclusion that X. martinicensis and X. splendens were more closely related to each other than to X. novacula. Distance and parsimony analyses also demonstrated that both larval morphotypes were X. novacula and, thus, our previous conclusions regarding larval ecology and oceanographic transport remain unchanged. Received: 12 March 1997 / Accepted: 24 October 1997     

Karyotypic characterization of the great sturgeon, Huso huso, by multiple staining techniques and fluorescent in situ hybridization

A karyotype analysis by several staining techniques was carried out on the great sturgeon, Huso huso (Linnaeus, 1758). The karyotype (2n = 118 ± 2) was composed of 42 pairs of meta-/submetacentric chromosomes and 17 pairs of acrocentrics/microchromosomes. Constitutive heterochromatin was mainly located at the centromeric regions of the acrocentric chromosomes. The biarmed chromosomes showed weak C-bands. Fluorescent staining with GC-specific chromomycin A₃ showed clearly recognizable fluorescent regions, whereas a more uniform base composition was revealed by the AT-specific 4,6-diamidino-2 phenylindole. After Ag-staining, nucleolar organizer regions could be observed on the short arms of two medium-sized submetacentrics and on two acrocentrics. Digoxigenated 28S and 5S rDNA probes, prepared from Acipenser naccarii DNA and hybridized to metaphase chromosomes, showed signals on six and two chromosomes, respectively. The telomeric sequence (TTAGGG) _n detected by FISH was located at both ends of each chromosome. Results are discussed in relation to karyotype organization and evolution in sturgeons. Received: 1 April 1998 / Accepted: 21 July 1998