Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: A convex optimisation approach

In this paper, we present a general method, based on a convex optimisation technique, that facilitates the coupling of climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework. As a demonstration of the method, we couple an economic growth model à la Ramsey adapted from DICE-99 with an efficient intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDSTEIN, which has highly simplified physics, but fully 3-D ocean dynamics. As in DICE-99, we assume that an economic cost is associated with global temperature change: this change is obtained from the climate model, which is driven by the GHG concentrations computed from the economic growth path. The work extends a previous paper in which these models were coupled in cost-effectiveness mode. Here we consider the more intricate cost-benefit coupling in which the climate impact is not fixed a priori. We implement the coupled model using an oracle-based optimisation technique. Each model is contained in an oracle, which supplies model output and information on its sensitivity to a master program. The algorithm Proximal-ACCPM guarantees the convergence of the procedure under sufficient convexity assumptions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a consistent, cost-benefit, climate-damage optimisation analysis with a 3-D climate model.     

Spatially stochastic settlement and the coexistence of benthic marine animals

For sessile organisms, dispersal and recruitment are typically spatially stochastic, but there is little understanding of how this variability scales up to influence processes such as competitive coexistence. Here we argue that coexistence of benthic marine animals is enhanced by stochastic differences between species in the spatial distribution of larval settlement. Differentiation of settlement distributions among competitors results in intraspecifically aggregated settlement, which can reduce overall interspecific competition and increase overall intraspecific competition. We test for the components of this mechanism using a pair of subtidal invertebrates, and we find that the mean interspecific effect of the dominant competitor is substantially reduced by natural settlement variability. Using a simulation parameterized with experimental data, we find that variable settlement could play an important role in long-term coexistence between these species. This mechanism may apply broadly to benthic marine communities, which can be highly diverse and typically exhibit large settlement fluctuation over a range of scales.     

Community vulnerability and resilience in disaster risk reduction: an example from Phojal Nalla,Himachal Pradesh,India

International Disaster Risk Reduction Frameworks and Indian Plans advocate shared responsibility for reducing disaster risk, in which community vulnerability and resilience conditions are central. This paper presents a case study from the Indian Himalaya (Kullu District) of community vulnerability and resilience conditions following damaging floods, primarily the 1994 Phojal Nalla flood, through the concepts of community heritage and capital. Data were collected in the period 2013–2016, using semi-structured interviews (n?=?129), village reconnaissance and archival/contemporary data searches. The connections between heritage, capital, vulnerability and resilience are complex, but results demonstrate ‘knowledge’ is the principal driver of resilience conditions, via facets of heritage (e.g. religious infrastructure and activities, traditional architectural vernacular, and multi-generational attachments to place) and capital (e.g. income diversification, access to communication technologies, societal welfare measures and positive interactions with water). Persisting vulnerabilities stem from differential access to and implementation of best practice knowledge, governed by social, economic and political conditions. Further improvements in risk reduction require greater consideration of the following: (1) the integration of community local knowledge into the overall disaster management process; (2) the opportunities offered by mobile phone and other technologies for generating and sharing knowledge across society; and (3) the value of under-utilised knowledge of past disaster events, assembled from a systematic evaluation of oral, documentary and landscape evidence, to risk reduction.     

Using photographic image analysis to assess ground cover: a case study of forest road cutbanks

Road prisms, including cutbanks, road surfaces, and fillslopes, can be important contributors of sediment to streams in forested watersheds. Following road construction, cutbanks and fillslopes are often seeded, mulched, and sometimes fertilized to limit erosion and sedimentation. Assessing the success of vegetation establishment on cutbanks and fillslopes is a common task of forested land managers. This study developed and applied a photographic image analysis method to assess percent ground cover along an entire cutbank of a cut-and-fill haul road in the Monongahela National Forest in Tucker County, West Virginia. Variable-sized sections were employed to quantify the vegetative cover. Measurements obtained by this technique were similar to more commonly applied fixed-area plots, and it proved to be a useful tool for land managers who require a more repeatable quantification of ground cover than is possible through visual assessments. Cutbank slope and aspect also were analyzed to determine their potential impact on cutbank vegetation establishment. Slope was not a significant variable in explaining differences in vegetation cover; however, aspect did affect vegetation establishment. South-facing aspects had significantly lower percent vegetation cover than northeast, east, northwest, and north northwest aspects after the first year following seeding and throughout the entire study. Mean percent cover on the south-facing cutbanks was 32% over all time periods, compared to 60% to 73% for the other represented aspects. This result was expected since south-facing slopes generally are drier in the growing season and are subject to more freeze–thaw cycles in the winter. Timber felled onto the cutbank also decreased vegetative cover in the short term on north and north northwest aspects, but vegetation quickly became reestablished on these aspects with their favorable growing conditions.     

Guiding principles for rewilding

There has been much recent interest in the concept of rewilding as a tool for nature conservation, but also confusion over the idea, which has limited its utility. We developed a unifying definition and 10 guiding principles for rewilding through a survey of 59 rewilding experts, a summary of key organizations’ rewilding visions, and workshops involving over 100 participants from around the world. The guiding principles convey that rewilding exits on a continuum of scale, connectivity, and level of human influence and aims to restore ecosystem structure and functions to achieve a self-sustaining autonomous nature. These principles clarify the concept of rewilding and improve its effectiveness as a tool to achieve global conservation targets, including those of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration and post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Finally, we suggest differences in rewilding perspectives lie largely in the extent to which it is seen as achievable and in specific interventions. An understanding of the context of rewilding projects is the key to success, and careful site-specific interpretations will help achieve the aims of rewilding.     

Effect of scale on trait predictors of species responses to agriculture

Species persistence in human‐altered landscapes can depend on factors operating at multiple spatial scales. To understand anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity, it is useful to examine relationships between species traits and their responses to land‐use change. A key knowledge gap concerns whether these relationships vary depending on the scale of response under consideration. We examined how local‐ and large‐scale habitat variables influence the occupancy dynamics of a bird community in cloud forest zones in the Colombian Chocó‐Andes. Using data collected across a continuum of forest and agriculture, we examined which traits best predict species responses to local variation in farmland and which traits best predict species responses to isolation from contiguous forest. Global range size was a strong predictor of species responses to agriculture at both scales; widespread species were less likely to decline as local habitat cover decreased and as distance from forest increased. Habitat specialization was a strong predictor of species responses only at the local scale. Open‐habitat species were particularly likely to increase as pasture increased, but they were relatively insensitive to variation in distance to forest. Foraging plasticity and flocking behavior were strong predictors of species responses to distance from forest, but not their responses to local habitat. Species with lower plasticity in foraging behaviors and obligate flock‐following species were more likely to decline as distance from contiguous forest increased. For species exhibiting these latter traits, persistence in tropical landscapes may depend on the protection of larger contiguous blocks of forest, rather than the integration of smaller‐scale woodland areas within farmland. Species listed as threatened or near threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List were also more likely to decline in response to both local habitat quality and isolation from forest relative to least‐concern species, underlining the importance of contiguous forests for threatened taxa.     

Mathematizing Darwin

Ernst Mayr called the first part of the evolutionary synthesis the ‘Fisherian synthesis’ on account of the dominant role played by R.A. Fisher in forging a mathematical theory of natural selection together with J.B.S. Haldane and Sewall Wright in the decade 1922–1932. It is here argued that Fisher’s contribution relied on a close reading of Darwin’s work to a much greater extent than did the contributions of Haldane and Wright, that it was synthetic in contrast to their analytic approach and that it was greatly influenced by his friendship with the Darwin family, particularly with Charles’s son Leonard.     

Simple graphical method for inherent occupational health assessment

The concept of inherently safer design was introduced to design a fundamentally safer process so that hazards can be avoided or minimized rather than controlled or managed. The ideology has later been extended to the environmental, but not health criteria due to its complicated underlying principles. Even though health risk methods are already established, majority are for existing plants assessment. Early consideration of health aspect starting from process design stage however, has received much less attention. This paper introduces a simple graphical method to evaluate the inherent occupational health hazards of chemical processes during the R&D stage. A survey was conducted to identify the important health parameters for the graphical method development, involving nine world inherent safety and health experts. Based on their input, process mode, material volatility, operating pressure and chemical health hazard (toxicity and adverse effect) are the significant factors affecting inherent health hazards of chemical processes. The choice of parameters was bounded by the information availability at this stage. The method was applied on six routes to methyl methacrylate and ten routes to acetic acid. The parameters were plotted for each subprocess of the alternative routes. The ‘healthiest’ route was selected based on thorough hazards assessment across all the subprocesses. The first case study reveals the tertiary butyl alcohol as the ‘healthiest’ one as it poses relatively lower, or at least comparable hazards to the other routes due to exposure and health impacts. Meanwhile the acetic acid case study indicates ethanol oxide and ethyl oxide based routes as the inherently healthier as they operate at lower operating pressure besides posing comparable hazards level for the other three parameters, compared to the other routes. The case studies show that the inherent occupational health of a chemical process can already be evaluated easily in the R&D stage with the simple graphical method proposed.     

Residential Indoor,Outdoor, and Workplace Concentrations of Carbonyl Compounds: Relationships with Personal Exposure Concentrations and Correlation with Sources

Abstract

Personal 48-hr exposures of 15 randomly selected participants as well as microenvironment concentrations in each participant’s residence and workplace were measured for 16 carbonyl compounds during summer–fall 1997 as a part of the Air Pollution Exposure Distributions within Adult Urban Populations in Europe (EXPOLIS) study in Helsinki, Finland. When formaldehyde and acetaldehyde were excluded, geometric mean ambient air concentrations outside each participant’s residence were less than 1 ppb for all target compounds. Geometric mean residential indoor concentrations of carbonyls were systematically higher than geometric mean personal exposures and indoor workplace concentrations. Additionally, residential indoor/outdoor ratios indicated substantial indoor sources for most target compounds. Carbonyls in residential indoor air correlated significantly, suggesting similar mechanisms of entry into indoor environments. Overall, this study demonstrated the important role of non-traffic-related emissions in the personal exposures of participants in Helsinki and that comprehensive apportionment of population risk to air toxics should include exposure concentrations derived from product emissions and chemical formation in indoor air.