Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models

We present a method of multi-criteria assessment for the analysis of process model uncertainty that combines analysis of model structure, parameters and data requirements. There are three components in calculation and definition of uncertainty.

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Assessment criteria: Uncertainty in a process model is reduced as the model can simultaneously simulate an increased number of assessment criteria selected to test specific aspects of the theory being investigated, and within acceptable limits set for those criteria. This reduces incomplete specification of the model—the characteristic that a model may explain some, but not all, of the observed features of a phenomenon. The calculation required is computation of the Pareto set which provides the list of simultaneously achieved criteria within specified ranges.     

Echolocation signals of the bat Eptesicus serotinus recorded using a vertical microphone array: effect of flight altitude on searching signals

The acoustic behaviour of Eptesicus serotinus was investigated in the field using a 13.5-m vertical, linear microphone array that allowed for simultaneous recordings at three different heights and for the calculation of flight altitude and distance from the array. Recordings were made at two locations that differed in bat species diversity. E. serotinus hunted on average at an altitude of 10.7 m (±2.7) at one location and 6.8 m (±3.6) at the other location. Search signals were 5–17 ms long depending on flight altitude, and consisted of two to three frequency-modulated harmonics. For bats flying below 8–10 m altitude, signal duration decreased with decreasing flight altitude, whereas signal interval, terminal frequency, peak frequency and frequency range of the first harmonic increased. Above 8–10 m flight altitude, the signal parameters were fairly constant. The –10 dB bandwidth and duty cycle did not change with flight altitude. Source levels were calculated to between 121 and 125 dB peSPL re 20 μPa at 10 cm. For bats flying higher than 9 m, the microphone placed 1.5 m above the ground recorded significantly reduced signal durations and frequency ranges of the first harmonic compared to the same signals recorded with the microphones at heights of 7 or 15 m. We caution the use of ground recordings to fully describe the echolocation signals of high-flying bats. We demonstrate that flight altitude significantly influences the structure of sonar signals from E. serotinus. Received: 17 May 1999 / Received in revised form: 20 September 1999 / Accepted: 25 September 1999     

Women's experiences with second trimester prenatal diagnosis

By means of questionnaires, 100 women were asked for their experiences concerning prenatal diagnosis. At four standardized stages of the pregnancy a questionnaire was filled in asking for: expectation, knowledge, attitude towards termination of the pregnancy in case of abnormal findings, reactions to the counselling and the obstetric treatment, interpretation of own risk, experiences since the normal test results were known and ideas to improve the treatment. With regard to the effect of pre-amniocentesis counselling it is concluded that the counselling had little impact on decision making; the counselling caused an increase of factual knowledge: somewhat more than half of the women who did not give a correct answer before counselling, indicated the right answer some time afterwards. Presumed differences in reaction patterns for a number of characteristics were not affirmed by the study; the reactions during the procedure of prenatal diagnosis seem to be highly individual and difficult to predict. In addition to the reactions of the 100 women described in this study, the responses to the first questionnaire of another 16 patients, declining amniocentesis after counselling, are presented.     

Water to atmosphere fluxes of 131I in relation with alkyl-iodide compounds from the Seine Estuary (France)

This study presents an original work on measurements of stable and radioactive iodinated species in the Seine estuary (France), with estimates fluxes of volatile gaseous species from water to the atmosphere. Various iodinated compounds were identified in water and air in particular 131I in water, what is unusual. Concentrations and behaviour of iodinated elements in the Seine estuary seem similar to what has been observed in other European estuaries. MeI (Methyl Iodide) and Total Volatile Iodine (TVI) fluxes from water to air vary between 392 and 13949 pmol m(-2) d(-1) and between 1279 and 16484 pmol m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Water to air flux of TVI for the Seine river was estimated in the range 4-46 kg y(-1). Measurements of (131)I in water varying between 0.4 and 11.9 Bq m(-3). Fluxes of (131)I from water to atmosphere are in the range 2.4 x 10(5)-1.3 x 10(7)Bq y(-1), close to an annual discharge of (131)I by a nuclear reactor.     

Effectiveness of high back belt positioning booster seats in side impacts

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential of high back booster seats to provide effective protection to children in side impacts. METHOD: This article presents a series of side impact sled tests at a velocity change of 30.5 km/h and a peak deceleration of 15.2 g, using the Hybrid III 6-year-old dummy in two styles of commonly used high-back booster seats: a conventional polystyrene booster seat and a convertible child restraint/booster seat. A series of tests were also performed using alternative anchorage systems in combination with the boosters. Simulated side impact tests were conducted at 90 degrees and 45 degrees. RESULTS: The booster seats tested were found to be too short for the 6-year-old dummy and head contact with the side door occurred in all 90 degree tests, resulting in high HIC values. The greatest potential for achieving effective protection in side impact in this test series was observed when the convertible child restraint/booster was used in combination with a rigid anchorage system. Using this system, the body of the dummy was kept farther away from the door which resulted in a softer head impact with the side door. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this work indicate that current booster seats offer poor torso containment and no head protection for children within the recommended age range. They also showed that the level of protection provided by belt positioning booster seats can be improved through the use of rigid anchorage systems. However, for this potential to be fully realized, belt positioning booster seats must offer better containment of the occupant during the impact.     

Acute impairing effects of morphine related to driving: A systematic review of experimental studies to define blood morphine concentrations related to impairment in opioid-naïve subjects

Objective: The objective of this study was to look for dose– and concentration–effect relationships in experimental studies on single-dose administration of morphine on traffic-relevant behavioral tests by a systematic literature review and possibly to see whether a dose/concentration could be defined below which few or no tests would be affected.

Methods: Searches for corresponding literature were conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO, throughout March of 2016. The search strategy consisted of words colligated to cognitive and psychomotor functions of relevance to driving, in relation to morphine administration. The tests were arranged in main groups, and tests showing impairment were categorized by doses as well as calculated plasma concentrations.

Results: Fifteen studies were included in the review. Impairment after the administration of a single intravenously dose of morphine was found in some of the tests on reaction time, attention, and visual functions. No impairment was observed in tests on psychomotor skills and en-/decoding. Tests on reaction time appeared to be less sensitive to the morphine administration, whereas tests on visual functions and attention appeared to be the most sensitive to the morphine administration. Single-dose administration of morphine with dosages up to 5 mg appeared to cause very few effects on traffic-relevant performance tasks. At higher dosages, impairment was found on various tasks but with no clear dose–effect relationship. Plasma morphine concentrations less than 50 nmol/L are most probably accompanied by few effects on traffic-relevant performance tasks.

Conclusions: A plasma morphine concentration of 50 nmol/L (approximately 14.3 ng/mL) could represent an upper level, under which there is little accompanying road traffic risk. A single dose of 5 mg morphine IV and analgetic equivalence doses of fentanyl, hydromorphone, oxycodone, and oxymorphone are presented with the suggestion that few traffic-relevant effects will appear after such doses.     

Screening of Ready-to-Eat Meat Products for Hepatitis E Virus in Switzerland

Seroprevalence data for pig herds suggested that there must be a relevant reservoir for hepatitis E virus (HEV) in Switzerland. To know more about the viral presence in ready-to-eat meat products, we screened pork liver sausages and raw meat sausages from the Swiss retail market for the presence of HEV. Testing was performed with a detection method where the virus extraction step was optimized. As for the performance of the improved method, the mean recovery rate for the mengovirus process control was 24.4%, whereas for HEV-inoculated sample matrices between 10.4 and 100% were achieved. The limit of detection was about 1.56 × 10³ and 1.56 × 10² genome copies per gram for liver sausages and raw meat sausages, respectively. In the screening programme, HEV-RNA was detected in 10 of total 90 (11.1%) meat products, 7 of 37 (18.9%) liver sausages, and 3 of 53 (5.7%) raw meat sausages. Virus loads of up to 5.54 log₁₀ HEV genome copies per gram were measured. All sequences retrieved from positive samples belonged to HEV genotype 3. The significance of the presented work was a current overview of the HEV prevalence in ready-to-eat meat products on the Swiss retail marked and an improvement of the extraction efficiency of the HEV detection method.