Efficacy of stable isotope ratios in assigning endangered migrants to breeding and wintering sites.

A primary constraint on effective conservation of migratory animals is our inability to track individuals through their annual cycle. One such animal is the endangered southwestern subspecies of the Willow Flycatcher, which is difficult to distinguish from conspecifics. Identifying wintering regions used by the endangered subspecies would be an important step in formulating an effective conservation strategy. Our objective was to use stable isotope ratios as a means of identifying wintering sites of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers. We analyzed stable isotope ratios of carbon, nitrogen, and hydrogen from feathers of breeding and wintering Willow Flycatchers. Based on winter samples, we document a positive trend in hydrogen isotope ratios across latitude. We also found that Willow Flycatchers use C4 food webs south of 8 degrees N latitude, but we found no evidence of use of C4 food webs farther north. Nitrogen stable isotope ratios of feathers showed no discernable geographic variation. Discriminant function analyses, based on stable isotope ratios of wintering Willow Flycatchers, were only useful (>50% accurate) for assigning individuals to winter regions if the regions were large and the threshold probability for assignment was relatively high. When using these discriminant functions, most breeding samples of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers were assigned to two wintering regions: central Mexico and Ecuador. We think that assignment of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers to Ecuador is unrealistic. Given the large percentages of samples that could not be classified with certainty, we are not confident that these two regions are truly more likely to harbor wintering Southwestern Willow Flycatchers than other winter regions. We think our inconclusive results are due primarily to weak and nonlinear gradients in isotope ratios across the winter range of Willow Flycatchers.     

Linear regression with Type I interval- and left-censored response data

Laboratory analyses in a variety of contexts may result in left- and interval-censored measurements. We develop and evaluate a maximum likelihood approach to linear regression analysis in this setting and compare this approach to commonly used simple substitution methods. We explore via simulation the impact on bias and power of censoring fraction and sample size in a range of settings. The maximum likelihood approach represents only a moderate increase in power, but we show that the bias in substitution estimates may be substantial.     

The influence of pH and household plumbing on water lead concentration

The water lead concentrations measured in the homes of children who were part of the Edinburgh Lead study are related to the characteristics of the water supply and the household plumbing. At the time of the study one of the City of Edinburgh's two water supplies was lime treated to reduce plumbosolvency but in the second supply this treatment had not yet become effective. This allows us to estimate the extent to which this type of water treatment reduces water lead concentrations, in houses with lead plumbing, to comply with existing and proposed limits for lead in water. The kitchen cold water was supplied from a lead storage tank in 69 (15%) of the houses. These houses had the highest lead concentrations and water treTo whom correrspondence should be addressed.     

Changes in microbial community characteristics and soil organic matter with nitrogen additions in two tropical forests

Microbial communities and their associated enzyme activities affect the amount and chemical quality of carbon (C) in soils. Increasing nitrogen (N) deposition, particularly in N-rich tropical forests, is likely to change the composition and behavior of microbial communities and feed back on ecosystem structure and function. This study presents a novel assessment of mechanistic links between microbial responses to N deposition and shifts in soil organic matter (SOM) quality and quantity. We used phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and microbial enzyme assays in soils to assess microbial community responses to long-term N additions in two distinct tropical rain forests. We used soil density fractionation and 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to measure related changes in SOM pool sizes and chemical quality. Microbial biomass increased in response to N fertilization in both tropical forests and corresponded to declines in pools of low-density SOM. The chemical quality of this soil C pool reflected ecosystem-specific changes in microbial community composition. In the lower-elevation forest, there was an increase in gram-negative bacteria PLFA biomass, and there were significant losses of labile C chemical groups (O-alkyls). In contrast, the upper-elevation tropical forest had an increase in fungal PLFAs with N additions and declines in C groups associated with increased soil C storage (alkyls). The dynamics of microbial enzymatic activities with N addition provided a functional link between changes in microbial community structure and SOM chemistry. Ecosystem-specific changes in microbial community composition are likely to have far-reaching effects on soil carbon storage and cycling. This study indicates that microbial communities in N-rich tropical forests can be sensitive to added N, but we can expect significant variability in how ecosystem structure and function respond to N deposition among tropical forest types.     

Denitrification in nitrate-rich streams: application of N2:Ar and 15N-tracer methods in intact cores.

Rates of benthic denitrification were measured using two techniques, membrane inlet mass spectrometry (MIMS) and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), applied to sediment cores from two NO3(-)-rich streams draining agricultural land in the upper Mississippi River Basin. Denitrification was estimated simultaneously from measurements of N2:Ar (MIMS) and 15N[N2] (IRMS) after the addition of low-level 15NO3- tracer (15N:N = 0.03-0.08) in stream water overlying intact sediment cores. Denitrification rates ranged from about 0 to 4400 micromol N x m(-2) x h(-1) in Sugar Creek and from 0 to 1300 micromol N x m(-2) x h(-1) in Iroquois River, the latter of which possesses greater streamflow discharge and a more homogeneous streambed and water column. Within the uncertainties of the two techniques, there is good agreement between the MIMS and IRMS results, which indicates that the production of N2 by the coupled process of nitrification/denitrification was relatively unimportant and surface-water NO3- was the dominant source of NO3- for benthic denitrification in these streams. Variation in stream NO3- concentration (from about 20 micromol/L during low discharge to 1000 micromol/L during high discharge) was a significant control of benthic denitrification rates, judging from the more abundant MIMS data. The interpretation that NO3- concentration directly affects denitrification rate was corroborated by increased rates of denitrification in cores amended with NO3-. Denitrification in Sugar Creek removed < or = 11% per day of the instream NO3- in late spring and removed roughly 15-20% in late summer. The fraction of NO3- removed in Iroquois River was less than that of Sugar Creek. Although benthic denitrification rates were relatively high during periods of high stream flow, when NO3 concentrations were also high, the increase in benthic denitrification could not compensate for the much larger increase in stream NO3- fluxes during high flow. Consequently, fractional NO3- losses were relatively low during high flow.     

Minimizing opportunity costs to aquatic connectivity restoration while controlling an invasive species

Controlling invasive species is critical for conservation but can have unintended consequences for native species and divert resources away from other efforts. This dilemma occurs on a grand scale in the North American Great Lakes, where dams and culverts block tributary access to habitat of desirable fish species and are a lynchpin of long‐standing efforts to limit ecological damage inflicted by the invasive, parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Habitat restoration and sea‐lamprey control create conflicting goals for managing aging infrastructure. We used optimization to minimize opportunity costs of habitat gains for 37 desirable migratory fishes that arose from restricting sea lamprey access (0–25% increase) when selecting barriers for removal under a limited budget (US$1–105 million). Imposing limits on sea lamprey habitat reduced gains in tributary access for desirable species by 15–50% relative to an unconstrained scenario. Additional investment to offset the effect of limiting sea‐lamprey access resulted in high opportunity costs for 30 of 37 species (e.g., an additional US$20–80 million for lake sturgeon [Acipenser fulvescens]) and often required ≥5% increase in sea‐lamprey access to identify barrier‐removal solutions adhering to the budget and limiting access. Narrowly distributed species exhibited the highest opportunity costs but benefited more at less cost when small increases in sea‐lamprey access were allowed. Our results illustrate the value of optimization in limiting opportunity costs when balancing invasion control against restoration benefits for diverse desirable species. Such trade‐off analyses are essential to the restoration of connectivity within fragmented rivers without unleashing invaders.     

Effects of flow regimes altered by dams on survival, population declines, and range-wide losses of California river-breeding frogs

Widespread alteration of natural hydrologic patterns by large dams combined with peak demands for power and water delivery during summer months have resulted in frequent aseasonal flow pulses in rivers of western North America. Native species in these ecosystems have evolved with predictable annual flood-drought cycles; thus, their likelihood of persistence may decrease in response to disruption of the seasonal synchrony between stable low-flow conditions and reproduction. We evaluated whether altered flow regimes affected 2 native frogs in California and Oregon (U.S.A.) at 4 spatial and temporal extents. We examined changes in species distribution over approximately 50 years, current population density in 11 regulated and 16 unregulated rivers, temporal trends in abundance among populations occupying rivers with different hydrologic histories, and within-year patterns of survival relative to seasonal hydrology. The foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii), which breeds only in flowing water, is more likely to be absent downstream of large dams than in free-flowing rivers, and breeding populations are on average 5 times smaller in regulated rivers than in unregulated rivers. Time series data (range = 8 - 19 years) from 5 populations of yellow-legged frogs and 2 populations of California red-legged frogs (R. draytonii) across a gradient of natural to highly artificial timing and magnitude of flooding indicate that variability of flows in spring and summer is strongly correlated with high mortality of early life stages and subsequent decreases in densities of adult females. Flow management that better mimics natural flow timing is likely to promote persistence of these species and others with similar phenology.