Constraints on group size in primates and carnivores: population density and day-range as assays of exploitation competition

Summary We hypothesise that foraging group size (FGS) and population group size (PGS) in primates and carnivores are related to quantifiable variables indexing the intensity of exploitative competition. Group size is predicted to increase with both food density and travel capabilities, as estimated by the constraint-free day-range (DR_s), i.e. the day-range of a solitary individual uninfluenced by competition from conspecifics. We test this exploitation competition hypothesis among primates and carnivores, using data on populations, species and genera. Food density was indexed by population density. Where DR_s could be estimated by regression it was found to be correlated with observed day-range (DR_m). DR_s was therefore indexed by DR_m in all species. Population density and DR_m were associated with each other, but in a multiple regression each variable contributed independently to explaining variation in group size. PGS was predicted better than FGS, but regressions involving either measure of group size were significant in all analyses. The multiple regression analyses were validated by the method of linear contrasts, which accounts for possible lack of independence among taxa. We conclude that species differences in group size are influenced by both food density and DR_s. This suggests that variation in the intensity of exploitation competition is partly responsible for differences in group size.Correspondence to: R.W. Wrangham     

Sex-biased lactational duration in a human population and its reproductive costs

Summary We tested the proposition that among humans (1) differences in lactational duration result in differences in costs of reproduction even under rich nutritional conditions; and (2) elimination of factors postulated to favor male-biased parental care will be reflected in elimination or reversal of sex-biased care. To do so, we examined the relationship between lactational duration and fertility among Hutterites, a communal-living human population in which the levels of nutritional resources and fertility are high, breast-feeding is the norm, contraceptive use is limited and the collective social and economic system results in low resource variance among individuals. We demonstrate that even under good nutritional conditions, duration of nursing was a significant predictor of the length of time to next pregnancy and that nursing continued to suppress fertility after the resumption of menses. Moreover, we find that daughters were nursed longer than sons, leading to a longer interval to next pregnancy. We examine this uncommon, but not unique, finding of female-biased human parental care in the light of Hutterite social structure, and we explore the consistency of this finding with the most applicable models of parental investment. Correspondence to: S.W. Margulis     

Cost-effective selection of sampling frequencies for regulatory water quality monitoring

A dynamic programming code was formulated for the purpose of assigning sampling frequencies throughout a regulatory water quality monitoring network in order to optimize the statistical performance of the network while operating within a fixed budgetary constraint. The statistical objective is to achieve the greatest possible station to station uniformity in confidence interval widths about annual geometric means of the measured water quality variables and to keep the average confidence width reasonably small. The objective function is the sum (over several selected variables and all stations) of the normalized positive deviations of the predicted confidence interval widths from preselected design confidence interval widths. The code was designed to account for the effects of deterministic seasonal variation and serial correlation of the water quality observations by incorporating the results of the time series analysis of historical quality data. The economic constraint ensures that the annual operating cost of the system, including direct costs of travel and laboratory analysis, will not exceed the allowable budget. As an example situation, the dynamic programming code was used to assign sampling frequencies to the nine stations in Illinois from which historical quality data had been obtained and analyzed. Using five design quality constituents and representative travel and laboratory costs, an “optimal” design was produced. The optimal design achieved a 10% improvement in uniformity (standard deviation) of confidence interval widths when compared to a more traditional design based on the same budget and using identical sampling frequencies at every station.     

Threshold and dose response estimation using the “filter model”

The “filter model” has been developed to explain the biologic effects of radiation and chemicals. We have examined nearly 300 sets of dose response data, of which 50 are presented here. Responses (induced by radiation and chemicals) which have been examined include in vitro survival studies on animal and plant tissues, induction of cellular aberrations and time to tumor or death. Similar data from in vivo studies has also been examined. All of the data appear to fit the model R = a lnD + b(lnD)² + c, where R is the response, a and b are parameters fitted by regression to a particular set of data, and c is the response at zero (or lowest) dose. By writing this model in exponential form, it can be seen that the response R results from multistage filtering (by net amounts a and b) of the initial dose, D. The threshold is obtained from this model as the point, $\text{D}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{T}}$, at which the second derivative becomes zero. This is given by $\text{D}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{T}}\text{=}\text{exp}\text{(1 ?}\text{a}\text{2b}\text{)}$ when a and b are oppositelt signed.     

A note on the allocation of investment

It is shown by example that the results obtained by Gruver [11 concerning specialization of investment in either directly productive or pollution control capital arise because of an implicit linearity assumption on the underlying technology. Utilizing a strictly concave “eighth sphere” technology, results are obtained which imply joint investment in the two types of capital except in “rare” instances. The results indicate the need for incorporating more general technologies into the analysis of such problems.     

Counter-disaster training in developing countries

This paper discusses both the need for training within a wider context of community disaster preparedness and the major alternatives in methods of training. Emphasis is placed on the importance of compatibility between the resources within a given country and appropriate training programmes.     

Residents' preparedness and response to the Kalamazoo Tornado

A survey was conducted of individuals residing directly in the path of the tornado that hit Kalamazoo, Michigan, on 13th May 1980. The residents' tornado preparedness and response were examined in an effort to evaluate the city's emergency warning system. The system was adequate for people on the east side of the city and lacking for west side residents. Other factors pertaining to the storm event and human response were also evaluated.