Resolving Chernobyl vs. global fallout contributions in soils from Poland using Plutonium atom ratios measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry

Plutonium in Polish forest soils and the Bór za Lasem peat bog is resolved between Chernobyl and global fallout contributions via inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometric measurements of 240Pu/230Pu and 241Pu/239Pu atom ratios in previously prepared NdF3 alpha spectrometric sources. Compared to global fallout, Chernobyl Pu exhibits higher abundances of 240Pu and 241Pu. The ratios 240Pu/230Pu and 241Pu/239Pu co-vary and range from 0.186 to 0.348 and 0.0029 to 0.0412, respectively, in forest soils (241Pu/239Pu = 0.2407 x [240Pu/239Pu] - 0.0413; r2 = 0.9924). Two-component mixing models are developed to apportion 239+240Pu and 241Pu activities; various estimates of the percentage of Chernobyl-derived 239+240Pu activity in forest soils range from < 10% to > 90% for the sample set. The 240Pu/230Pu - 241Pu/239Pu atom ratio mixing line extrapolates to estimate 241Pu/239Pu and the 241Pu/239+240Pu activity ratio for the Chernobyl source term (0.123 +/- 0.0007; 83 +/- 5; 1 May 1986). Sample 241Pu activities, calculated using existing alpha spectrometric 239+240Pu activities, and the 240Pu/230Pu and 241Pu/239Pu atom ratios, agree relatively well with previous liquid scintillation spectrometry measurements. Chernobyl Pu is most evident in locations from northeastern Poland. The 241Pu activities and/or the 241Pu/239Pu atom ratios are more sensitive than 240Pu/239Pu or 238Pu/239+240Pu activity ratios at detecting small Chernobyl 239+240Pu inputs, found in southern Poland. The mass spectrometric data show that the 241Pu activity is 40-62% Chernobyl-derived in southern Poland, and 58-96% Chernobyl in northeastern Poland. The Bór za Lasem peat bog (49.42 degrees N, 19.75 degrees E), located in the Orawsko-Nowotarska valley of southern Poland, consists of global fallout Pu.     

Monitoring Forest Carbon Sequestration with Remote Sensing and Carbon Cycle Modeling

Sources and sinks of carbon associated with forests depend strongly on the management regime and spatial patterns in potential productivity. Satellite remote sensing can provide spatially explicit information on land cover, stand-age class, and harvesting. Carbon-cycle process models coupled to regional climate databases can provide information on potential rates of production and related rates of decomposition. The integration of remote sensing and modeling thus produces spatially explicit information on carbon storage and flux. This integrated approach was employed to compare carbon flux for the period 1992–1997 over two 165-km² areas in western Oregon. The Coast Range study area was predominately private land managed for timber production, whereas the West Cascades study area was predominantly public land that was less productive but experienced little harvesting in the 1990s. In the Coast Range area, 17% of the land base was harvested between 1991 and 2000. Much of the area was in relatively young, productive-age classes that simulations indicate are a carbon sink. Mean annual harvest removals from the Coast Range were greater than mean annual net ecosystem production. On the West Cascades study area, a relatively small proportion (< 1%) of the land was harvested and the area as a whole was accumulating carbon. The spatially and temporally explicit nature of this approach permits identification of mechanisms underlying land base carbon flux. Published online     

ENHANCING EVACUATION WARNING COMPLIANCE: SUGGESTIONS FOREMERGENCY PLANNING*

This review of incentives to evacuate is meaningful largely in the context of planning for and managing the consequences of the impact of riverine floods. Of course, incentives do not constitute an emergency plan. At best, they should be seen as suggestions for structuring some elements of a plan. Furthermore, the enumeration of incentives presented here is meant to be suggestive rather than exhaustive. A primary objective of this paper has been to underscore the importance of advance planning in coping with hazards and to argue that, even though limited, existing research can be productively used in the planning process. The incentives described here are based upon or drawn from empirical research on people's performance under flood disaster conditions. This reflects the view that it is important to build emergency planning around people's known reaction patterns. Too often emergency plans which are administratively devised turn out to be based upon misconceptions of how people react (cf. Drabek and Stephenson, 1971, p. 202; Dynes et al., 1972, p. 31) and, therefore, potentially create more difficulties than they solve. One must be cautioned, however, that although our data indicate that people say they would support the idea of various evacuation incentives examined here, these are attitudinal data and not performance data. Thus, the real test of evacuation incentives lies in their implementation and in evaluation data on pilot programs which, unfortunately, do not presently exist. The outlook for the feasibility of developing and utilizing evacuation incentives appears to be positive, though, judging from responses to our interviews. In the final analysis, it would appear to be wise to develop emergency plans which guide and channel citizen actions into complementary and productive protection behavior patterns. The present discussion of incentives to evacuate is intended to encourage data-based emergency planning.     

DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR OPTIMAL CAPACITY EXPANSION OF WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANTS1

ABSTRACT: A dynamic programming procedure for the planning and operation of a wastewater treatment plant over a long period of time is presented. In order to meet increased demands for wastewater treatment in the future, the expansion of existing plants must be considered. Dynamic programming is employed to determine the optimal schedule of expansion at each plant, simultaneously determining an optimal operating policy (treatment level). The optimal schedule of expansion at each plant depends on the following: (1) the shape of the projected wastewater demand function; (2) the interest rate used; (3) the locations and capacities of the facilities available; and (4) the rates of increase of the costs of construction, labor, chemicals, and electric power. An example illustrating the use of the procedure is presented.     

THE EFFECT OF DATA INDEPENDENCE IN MODEL CALIBRATION AND MODEL TESTING1

ABSTRACT: With the increased use of models in hydrologic design, there is an immediate need for a comprehensive comparison of hydrologic models, especially those intended for use at ungaged locations (i.e., where measured data are either not available or inadequate for model calibration). But some past comparisons of hydrologic models have used the same data base for both calibration and testing of the different models or implied that the results of model calibration are indicative of the accuracy at ungaged locations. This practice was examined using both the regression equation approach to peak discharge estimation and a unit hydrograph model that was intended for use in urban areas. The results suggested that the lack of data independence in the calibration and testing of regression equations may lead to both biased results and misleading statements about prediction accuracy. Additionally, although split-sample testing is recognized as desirable, the split-samples should be selected using a systematic-random sampling scheme, rather than random sampling, because random sampling with small samples may lead to a testing sample that is not representative of the population. A systematic-random sampling technique should lead to more valid conclusions about model reliability. For models like a unit hydrograph model, which are more complex and for which calibration is a more involved process, data independence is not as critical because the data fitting error variation is not as dominant as the error variation due to the calibration process and the inability of the model structure to conform with data variability.     

THE MILWAUKEE POLLUTION CASE - IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The Illinois v. Milwaukee Federal District Court decision is the most far reaching application yet of the federal common law of nuisance to interstate water pollution conflicts. Although a Federal Appelate Court recently rescinded part of the district court decision, Milwaukee must still upgrade its metropolitan sewage system to a level beyond that required by federal and state regulations. The improvements must be completed with or without federal aid. The case points out the apparent inability of the Clean Water Act, the most comprehensive federal legislation affecting the nation's water quality, to deal with certain interstate water quality conflicts. The Milwaukee decision could set a precedent for similar settlements elsewhere which may in turn affect the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's water quality clean up program. A more integrated, ecosystem conscious approach to management of shared water resources (e.g., the Great Lakes) would help reduce the need for court decisions like Illinois v. Milwaukee.     

Modeling the long-term effects of fuelwood harvests on Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands

In the Southwestern United States, increasing demand for firewood has quickly promoted pinyon-juniper woodlands to commercial status. Slow recovery rates for pinyon and juniper and inadequate mensuration data present significant obstacles to predictive management efforts. Many National Forest districts have witnessed continued fuel use for at least the past 100 years. To explore the need for long-term analysis at the district level, we have developed FORMAN I, a computer simulation written in FORTRAN IV that models prolonged fuel harvesting and its impact on pinyon-juniper woodlands. The technique is well-suited for historical analyses and we comply with an initial application that involves the suggested impact of prehistoric peoples on a marginal woodland in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. To accentuate the significance of the simulation, we have deliberately overestimated woodland parameters while maintaining conservative annual rates for firewood procurement. A low-density woodland (less than 14.8 cords/ha) is completely depleted within 200 years when subjected to tenth-through-twelfth century estimates of human demography for the canyon. Interesting conclusions are drawn from the lack of pinyon-juniper recovery at Chaco over the past millennium. Traditional assumptions, such as the pristine state of Southwestern vegetation prior to historic settlement and subsequent invasion of marginal grasslands by pinyon and juniper, are questioned.