Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Lay concepts on CCS deployment in Switzerland based on qualitative interviews

Laypeople's acceptance and perception of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) can have an influence on its political feasibility. It is important, therefore, to study how laypeople perceive CCS and which cognitions they hold with respect to this technique. We conducted in-depth interviews with laypeople (N = 16) to explore their mental concepts of CCS. Little knowledge about CCS was detected among laypeople. We also found that laypeople fear that a deployment of CCS could create incentives that would hinder a sustainable development of the energy economy. A misunderstanding of the concepts of hydro- and geostatic pressure, as well as a lack of knowledge about the physical–chemical properties of carbon dioxide seemed to trigger fundamental rejection of CCS among some laypeople. This qualitative study identifies concepts that underlie CCS perception, and these should be objects of future studies. We provide some suggestions for risk management and communication about CCS.     

Responses of Physical, Chemical, and Biological Indicators of Water Quality to a Gradient of Agricultural Land Use in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

The condition of 25 stream sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, were assessed by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Multimetric condition indices were developed and used to rank sites on the basis of physical, chemical, and biological characteristics. These indices showed that sites in the Cascades and Eastern Cascades ecoregions were largely unimpaired. In contrast, all but two sites in the Columbia Basin ecoregion were impaired, some severely. Agriculture (nutrients and pesticides) was the primary factor associated with impairment and all impaired sites were characterized by multiple indicators of impairment. All indices of biological condition (fish, invertebrates, and algae) declined as agricultural intensity increased. The response exhibited by invertebrates and algae suggested a threshold response with conditions declining precipitously at relatively low levels of agricultural intensity and little response at moderate to high levels of agricultural intensity. This pattern of response suggests that the success of mitigation will vary depending upon where on the response curve the mitigation is undertaken. Because the form of the community condition response is critical to effective water-quality management, the National Water-Quality Assessment Program is conducting studies to examine the response of biota to gradients of land-use intensity and the relevance of these responses to water-quality management. These land-use gradient pilot studies will be conducted in several urban areas starting in 1999.     

Physical Modeling of Emissions from Naturally Ventilated Underground Parking Garages

The dispersion of pollutants from naturally ventilated underground parking garages has been studied in a boundary layer wind tunnel. Two idealized model setups have been analysed, one was simulating pollutant dispersion around an isolated rectangular building and one was representing dispersion in a finite array of idealized building blocks. Flow and dispersion close to modelled ground level emission sources was measured. The results illustrate the complexity of the flow around buildings and provide insight in pollutant transport from ground level sources located directly on building surfaces. As a result, areas critical with respect to high pollutant concentrations could be visualized. Particularly, the results show high concentration gradients on the surface of the buildings equipped with modelled emission sources. Inside the boundary layers on the building walls, a significant amount of pollutants is transported to upwind locations on the surface of the building. The paper documents the potential of physical modelling to be used for the simulation and measurement of dispersion close to emission sources and within complex building arrangements.     

An evaluation of selenium concentrations in water, sediment, invertebrates, and fish from the Solomon River Basin

The Solomon River Basin is located in north-central Kansas in an area underlain by marine geologic shales. Selenium is an indigenous constituent of these shales and is readily leached into the surrounding groundwater. Portions of the Basin are irrigated primarily through the pumping of selenium-contaminated groundwater from wells onto fields in agricultural production. Water, sediment, macroinvertebrates, and fish were collected from various sites in the Basin in 1998 and analyzed for selenium. Selenium concentrations were analyzed spatially and temporally and compared to reported selenium toxic effect thresholds for specific ecosystem components: water, sediments, food-chain organisms, and wholebody fish. A selenium aquatic hazard assessment for the Basin was determined based on protocol established by Lemly. Throughout the Basin, water, macroinvertebrate, and whole fish samples exceeded levels suspected of causing reproductive impairment in fish. Population structures of several fish species implied that successful reproduction was occurring; however, the influence of immigration of fish from low-selenium habitats could not be discounted. Site-specific fish reproduction studies are needed to determine the true impact of selenium on fishery resources in the Basin. The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Quantitative arsenic speciation in two species of earthworms from a former mine site

The relationship between the total arsenic concentration and the chemical speciation of arsenic in two species of earthworm (Lumbricus rubellus and Dendrodrilus rubidus) in relation to the host soil, was investigated for 13 sites of varying arsenic content, including a background level garden soil and a former mine site at the Devon Great Consols, UK. Earthworms were collected with the host soil (As soil concentration range 16-12, 466 mg kg(-1) dry weight) and measured for their total arsenic (concentration range 7-595 mg kg(-1) dry weight) using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). A methanol-water mixture was used to extract arsenic species from the earthworms prior to determination of the individual arsenic species by a combination of anion and cation exchange high performance liquid chromatography coupled to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HPLC-ICP-MS). A gradient elution anion exchange method is presented whereby nine arsenic species could be measured in one sample injection. Arsenic species were identified by comparison of retention times and sample spiking with known standards and a fully characterised seaweed extract. Arsenic was generally present in the earthworm as arsenate (As(V)) or arsenite (As(III)) and arsenobetaine (AB). Methylarsonate (MA), dimethylarsinate (DMA) and three arsenosugars (glycerol, phosphate, sulfate) were present as minor constituents. These results are discussed in relation to the mechanisms for coping with exposure to soil bound arsenic.     

Distribution of antifouling biocides in California marinas

Antifouling biocides are used to prevent the settlement and growth of organisms on submerged surfaces. Irgarol 1051 is currently among the most widely used organic booster biocides worldwide. This study reports Irgarol 1051, its major metabolite M1 (aka GS26575), and diuron concentrations found in selected California marinas. Seasonal water samples (n = 46) were collected during the summer and fall of 2006 from eleven marinas throughout Southern and Northern California. The samples were extracted using solid phase extraction and analysed utilizing liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS-MS) with electrospray ionization. All three compounds were detected in all samples, representing a 100% frequency of occurrence and indicating widespread use around the sampled marinas. Irgarol concentrations ranged from 12 to 712 ng L(-1) (average 102 ng L(-1)), M1 concentrations were 1-217 ng L(-1) (average 31 ng L(-1)), and diuron concentrations were 5-27 ng L(-1) (average 13 ng L(-1)). In general, concentrations of both Irgarol (15-712 ng L(-1)) and M1 (1-217 ng L(-1)) were greater in samples collected during the summer, corresponding to the peak of the boating season. The detected diuron concentrations in most cases were greater for fall samples (7-27 ng L(-1)), and probably represented a combination of non-agricultural (rights of way) and agricultural applications of diuron in California. The maximum Irgarol concentration detected in California marinas in summer 2006 (712 ng L(-1)) was five times greater than the Irgarol concentration suggested as the plant toxicity benchmark (136 ng L(-1)). Twenty three percent of samples from California marinas in this study exceeded this benchmark, suggesting that detected Irgarol concentrations may be high enough to cause changes in phytoplankton communities in the sampled marinas.     

Predicting the biological condition of streams: use of geospatial indicators of natural and anthropogenic characteristics of watersheds

We developed and evaluated empirical models to predict biological condition of wadeable streams in a large portion of the eastern USA, with the ultimate goal of prediction for unsampled basins. Previous work had classified (i.e., altered vs. unaltered) the biological condition of 920 streams based on a biological assessment of macroinvertebrate assemblages. Predictor variables were limited to widely available geospatial data, which included land cover, topography, climate, soils, societal infrastructure, and potential hydrologic modification. We compared the accuracy of predictions of biological condition class based on models with continuous and binary responses. We also evaluated the relative importance of specific groups and individual predictor variables, as well as the relationships between the most important predictors and biological condition. Prediction accuracy and the relative importance of predictor variables were different for two subregions for which models were created. Predictive accuracy in the highlands region improved by including predictors that represented both natural and human activities. Riparian land cover and road-stream intersections were the most important predictors. In contrast, predictive accuracy in the lowlands region was best for models limited to predictors representing natural factors, including basin topography and soil properties. Partial dependence plots revealed complex and nonlinear relationships between specific predictors and the probability of biological alteration. We demonstrate a potential application of the model by predicting biological condition in 552 unsampled basins across an ecoregion in southeastern Wisconsin (USA). Estimates of the likelihood of biological condition of unsampled streams could be a valuable tool for screening large numbers of basins to focus targeted monitoring of potentially unaltered or altered stream segments.