Flood management: prediction of microbial contamination in large-scale floods in urban environments

With a changing climate and increased urbanisation, the occurrence and the impact of flooding is expected to increase significantly. Floods can bring pathogens into homes and cause lingering damp and microbial growth in buildings, with the level of growth and persistence dependent on the volume and chemical and biological content of the flood water, the properties of the contaminating microbes, and the surrounding environmental conditions, including the restoration time and methods, the heat and moisture transport properties of the envelope design, and the ability of the construction material to sustain the microbial growth. The public health risk will depend on the interaction of these complex processes and the vulnerability and susceptibility of occupants in the affected areas. After the 2007 floods in the UK, the Pitt review noted that there is lack of relevant scientific evidence and consistency with regard to the management and treatment of flooded homes, which not only put the local population at risk but also caused unnecessary delays in the restoration effort. Understanding the drying behaviour of flooded buildings in the UK building stock under different scenarios, and the ability of microbial contaminants to grow, persist, and produce toxins within these buildings can help inform recovery efforts. To contribute to future flood management, this paper proposes the use of building simulations and biological models to predict the risk of microbial contamination in typical UK buildings. We review the state of the art with regard to biological contamination following flooding, relevant building simulation, simulation-linked microbial modelling, and current practical considerations in flood remediation. Using the city of London as an example, a methodology is proposed that uses GIS as a platform to integrate drying models and microbial risk models with the local building stock and flood models. The integrated tool will help local governments, health authorities, insurance companies and residents to better understand, prepare for and manage a large-scale flood in urban environments.     

Acute effects of Fe₂O₃, TiO₂, ZnO and CuO nanomaterials on Xenopus laevis

Metal oxide nanomaterials have exhibited toxicity to a variety of aquatic organisms, especially microbes and invertebrates. To date, few studies have evaluated the toxicity of metal oxide nanomaterials on aquatic vertebrates. Therefore, this study examined effects of ZnO, TiO₂, Fe₂O₃, and CuO nanomaterials (20-100 nm) on amphibians utilizing the Frog Embryo Teratogenesis Assay Xenopus (FETAX) protocol, a 96 h exposure with daily solution exchanges. Nanomaterials were dispersed in reconstituted moderately hard test medium. These exposures did not increase mortality in static renewal exposures containing up to 1000 mg L⁻¹ for TiO₂, Fe₂O₃, CuO, and ZnO, but did induce developmental abnormalities. Gastrointestinal, spinal, and other abnormalities were observed in CuO and ZnO nanomaterial exposures at concentrations as low as 3.16 mg L⁻¹ (ZnO). An EC₅₀ of 10.3 mg L⁻¹ ZnO was observed for total malformations. The minimum concentration to inhibit growth of tadpoles exposed to CuO or ZnO nanomaterials was 10 mg L⁻¹. The results indicate that select nanomaterials can negatively affect amphibians during development. Evaluation of nanomaterial exposure on vertebrate organisms are imperative to responsible production and introduction of nanomaterials in everyday products to ensure human and environmental safety.     

Poverty as a determinant of young drivers' fatal crash risks

Problem

U.S. teenaged and young-adult drivers' elevated rates of fatal traffic crash involvement typically are attributed to biological and developmental risk-taking associated with young age. However, young drivers differ from older ones along several sociodemographic dimensions, including higher poverty rates and greater concentration in poorer areas, which may contribute to their risks.

Method

Using Fatality Analysis Reporting System, Census, and Federal Highway Administration data for 1994-2007, bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted of fatal motor-vehicle crash involvements per 100 million miles driven by driver age (16 through 74) and state along with 14 driver-, vehicle-, and state-level variables.

Results

Driver age was not a significant predictor of fatal crash risk once several factors associated with high poverty status (more occupants per vehicle, smaller vehicle size, older vehicle age, lower state per-capita income, lower state population density, more motor-vehicle driving, and lower education levels) were controlled. These risk factors were significantly associated with each other and with higher crash involvement among adult drivers as well.

Summary and Discussion

The strong association between fatal crash risk and environments of poverty as operationalized by substandard vehicle and driving conditions suggests a major overlooked traffic safety factor particularly affecting young drivers.     

Climatic Implications of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios, the Kyoto Protocol and Quantification of Uncertainties

In December 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) adopted the Kyoto Protocol. This paper describes a framework that models the climatic implications of this international agreement, using Monte Carlo simulations and the preliminary Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios (SRES). Emissions scenarios (including intervention scenarios), climate sensitivity, and terrestrial carbon sink are the key sampled model parameters. This framework gives prior probability distributions to these parameters and, using a simple climate model, posterior distributions of global temperature change are determined for the future. Our exercise showed that the Kyoto Protocol's effectiveness will be mostly dependent upon which SRES world evolves. In some worlds the Protocol decreases the warming considerably but in others it is almost irrelevant. We exemplified this approach with a current FCCC issue, namely “hot air”. This modelling framework provides a probabilistic assessment of climate policies, which can be useful for decision-makers involved in global climate change management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mapping Economic Returns to Agriculture for Informing Environmental Policy in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

We integrate information from several disparate data sources including agricultural statistics and remote sensing to quantify and map the distribution and dynamics of agricultural returns to land and water resources from 1996/1997 to 2000/2001 in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. Total profit to agriculture was estimated at AUD3.86B in 1996/1997 and AUD3.73B in 2000/2001. The mapping reveals a high spatial concentration of economic returns to land and water resources from agriculture. Dryland agriculture covers over 82% of the study area. Irrigated agriculture covers 1.7% of the land area (2000/2001) but returns one third of the total profit to agriculture. We found that around 80% of the profit to agriculture comes from just over 5% of the land area. The results from this regional scale economic mapping can inform regulatory policy and public investments in natural resource management through targeting industries and regions that provide low marginal returns to the natural resource base.     

Long-term changes in acidity and DOC in throughfall and soil water in Finnish forests

The main objective of this study was to examine if any detectable trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC), sulphate (SO₄-S) concentrations and acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in throughfall (TF) and soil water (SW) could be found during 1990–2010 and to relate them to recent changes in decreased acid deposition. The study was conducted in seven boreal coniferous forest sites: four of which are managed and three unmanaged forests sites. Generally, temporal trend showed a significant decrease in SO₄-S concentrations in bulk precipitation (BP), TF and SW. At some of the sites, there was an increasing tendency in BP and TF in the DOC concentrations. This feature coincides with decreasing SO₄-S concentration, indicating that SO₄-S may be an important driver of DOC release from the canopy. However, a slightly increased temperature, larger senescing needle mass and consequently increased decaying activity in the canopy may partly explain the increasing trend in DOC. In SW, no consistent DOC trend was seen. At some sites, the decreased base cation concentrations mostly account for the decrease in the ANC values in SW and TF.     

Representative Landscapes in the Forested Area of Canada

Canada is a large nation with forested ecosystems that occupy over 60% of the national land base, and knowledge of the patterns of Canada’s land cover is important to proper environmental management of this vast resource. To this end, a circa 2000 Landsat-derived land cover map of the forested ecosystems of Canada has created a new window into understanding the composition and configuration of land cover patterns in forested Canada. Strategies for summarizing such large expanses of land cover are increasingly important, as land managers work to study and preserve distinctive areas, as well as to identify representative examples of current land-cover and land-use assemblages. Meanwhile, the development of extremely efficient clustering algorithms has become increasingly important in the world of computer science, in which billions of pieces of information on the internet are continually sifted for meaning for a vast variety of applications. One recently developed clustering algorithm quickly groups large numbers of items of any type in a given data set while simultaneously selecting a representative—or “exemplar”—from each cluster. In this context, the availability of both advanced data processing methods and a nationally available set of landscape metrics presents an opportunity to identify sets of representative landscapes to better understand landscape pattern, variation, and distribution across the forested area of Canada. In this research, we first identify and provide context for a small, interpretable set of exemplar landscapes that objectively represent land cover in each of Canada’s ten forested ecozones. Then, we demonstrate how this approach can be used to identify flagship and satellite long-term study areas inside and outside protected areas in the province of Ontario. These applications aid our understanding of Canada’s forest while augmenting its management toolbox, and may signal a broad range of applications for this versatile approach.