(Why) did Desertec fail? An interim analysis of a large-scale renewable energy infrastructure project from a Social Studies of Technology perspective

ABSTRACT

In 2009 the Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII) was founded by several, predominant German enterprises. The objective of DII was to organise the conditions for the realisation of the Desertec idea, which aimed to both (a) supply Europe, in a large-scale manner, with electricity produced in solar power plants in North Africa and the Arabic peninsula and (b) contribute to the self-supply of the Middle East North Africa region (MENA). Protagonists of the desert energy idea saw this megatechnic project as a starting point for a new trans-Mediterranean EU-MENA union, critics in contrast as a neo-colonial project. Disputes over the adequate interpretation and implementation of the Desertec idea broke out from the beginning. In 2014/2015, the media talked of the failure of DII and of the Desertec concept. The majority of the members left DII at the end of 2014. On the other hand, in some MENA countries renewables are playing a crucial role in securing the future of the energy sector. This paper analyses the development of DII and the Desertec idea by using concepts from Social Studies in Technology, and especially by the multi-level perspective approach in Transition Studies. It shows how the interplay of different factors, such as technological developments, entrepreneurial performances and political processes, lead to internal conflicts and the non-realisation – up to now – of related large-scale energy projects. As an important aspect of the paper, different understandings of the future of our energy supply and of North–South relations are presented in detail.     

Butterfly community shifts over two centuries

Environmental changes strongly impact the distribution of species and subsequently the composition of species assemblages. Although most community ecology studies represent temporal snap shots, long‐term observations are rather rare. However, only such time series allow the identification of species composition shifts over several decades or even centuries. We analyzed changes in the species composition of a southeastern German butterfly and burnet moth community over nearly 2 centuries (1840–2013). We classified all species observed over this period according to their ecological tolerance, thereby assessing their degree of habitat specialisation. This classification was based on traits of the butterfly and burnet moth species and on their larval host plants. We collected data on temperature and precipitation for our study area over the same period. The number of species declined substantially from 1840 (117 species) to 2013 (71 species). The proportion of habitat specialists decreased, and most of these are currently endangered. In contrast, the proportion of habitat generalists increased. Species with restricted dispersal behavior and species in need of areas poor in soil nutrients had severe losses. Furthermore, our data indicated a decrease in species composition similarity between different decades over time. These data on species composition changes and the general trends of modifications may reflect effects from climate change and atmospheric nitrogen loads, as indicated by the ecological characteristics of host plant species and local changes in habitat configuration with increasing fragmentation. Our observation of major declines over time of currently threatened and protected species shows the importance of efficient conservation strategies.     

Habitat biodiversity as a determinant of fish community structure on coral reefs

Increased habitat diversity is often predicted to promote the diversity of animal communities because a greater variety of habitats increases the opportunities for species to specialize on different resources and coexist. Although positive correlations between the diversities of habitat and associated animals are often observed, the underlying mechanisms are only now starting to emerge, and none have been tested specifically in the marine environment. Scleractinian corals constitute the primary habitat-forming organisms on coral reefs and, as such, play an important role in structuring associated reef fish communities. Using the same field experimental design in two geographic localities differing in regional fish species composition, we tested the effects of coral species richness and composition on the diversity, abundance, and structure of the local fish community. Richness of coral species overall had a positive effect on fish species richness but had no effect on total fish abundance or evenness. At both localities, certain individual coral species supported similar levels of fish diversity and abundance as the high coral richness treatments, suggesting that particular coral species are disproportionately important in promoting high local fish diversity. Furthermore, in both localities, different microhabitats (coral species) supported very different fish communities, indicating that most reef fish species distinguish habitat at the level of coral species. Fish communities colonizing treatments of higher coral species richness represented a combination of those inhabiting the constituent coral species. These findings suggest that mechanisms underlying habitat-animal interaction in the terrestrial environment also apply to marine systems and highlight the importance of coral diversity to local fish diversity. The loss of particular key coral species is likely to have a disproportionate impact on the biodiversity of associated fish communities.     

Atmospheric Deposition and Ozone Levels in Swiss Forests: Are Critical Values Exceeded?

Air pollution affects forest health through atmospheric deposition of acidic and nitrogen compounds and elevated levels of tropospheric ozone (O₃). In 1985, a monitoring network was established across Europe and various research efforts have since been undertaken to define critical values. We measured atmospheric deposition of acidity and nitrogen as well as ambient levels of O₃ on 12, 13, and 14 plots, respectively, in the framework of the Swiss Long-Term Forest Ecosystem Research (LWF) in the period from 1995 to 2002. We estimated the critical loads of acidity and of nitrogen, using the steady state mass balance approach, and calculated the critical O₃ levels using the AOT40 approach. The deposition of acidity exceeded the critical loads on 2 plots and almost reached them on 4 plots. The median of the measured molar ratio of base nutrient cations to total dissolved aluminium (Bc/Al) in the soil solution was higher than the critical value of 1 for all depths, and also at the plots with an exceedance of the critical load of acidity. For nitrogen, critical loads were exceeded on 8 plots and deposition likely represents a long-term ecological risk on 3 to 10 plots. For O₃, exceedance of critical levels was recorded on 12 plots, and led to the development of typical O₃-induced visible injury on trees and shrubs, but not for all plots due to (1) the site specific composition of O₃ sensitive and tolerant plant species, and (2) the influence of microclimatic site conditions on the stomatal behaviour, i.e., O₃ uptake.     

Mercury in rivers in NW England: from rural headwaters to the heartlands of the historic industrial base

Total mercury (T-Hg) concentrations in rivers are described across a rural to urban/industrial and agricultural landscape gradient in NW England. T-Hg ranges between 0.2 and 230 ng L(-1). The regional median was 3.6 ng L(-1) with individual river medians ranging between 1.9 and 8.3 ng L(-1). Median T-Hg concentrations were sometimes moderately higher for the lowland areas and at higher flows. Our estimates suggest that the Ribble estuary receives 9.2 kg y(-1) and the Wyre estuary 0.7 kg y(-1). In order to examine regional inputs from urban/industrial components, regression analysis was undertaken by comparing three types of hydrochemical signature: suspended sediments (SS), which provide a measure of the particulate component, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) that provides an indication of humic/fulvic acids that are part of the organic colloids and strong chelating agents, and boron a marker of sewage effluents and population density. The results show high positive relationships of T-Hg with both SS and DOC, but no relationship with the urban/industrial signal. The regression analysis with T-Hg indicated on average a gradient of 0.33 ng mg(-1) for DOC and 0.2 ng mg(-1) for SS. They indicate the primary importance of a diffuse source of T-Hg. For the upland areas and cleaner river systems, the linkages between T-Hg and DOC were particularly strong, while for the lowland areas, the linkage with SS proved stronger. Analysis of a latter subset of data that partition the SS into organic and inorganic fractions indicated that the T-Hg was primarily linked with the organic fraction. Indeed, multiple regression of T-Hg with DOC and POM reveals gradients similar to other parts of the World.     

Exploring the linkages between river water chemistry and watershed characteristics using GIS-based catchment and locality analyses

A typology of land characteristics for the Humber catchment in central/eastern England is identified in relation to land use, hydrology and demographic, topographic and geological characteristics, using GIS and statistical analyses. Empirical relationships between land characteristics and water quality were examined in relation to the spatial variability in water quality across the Humber catchment. Analyses of relationships between land characteristics and water quality were undertaken at two hierarchical scales: (1) individual catchments and (2) localities of 10 km radius draining to each sampling site. The importance of urban and agricultural sources was identified, together with a hydrological component linked to dilution of point source inputs and mobilisation of specific sediment-associated contaminants in higher-energy (higher-flow) environments. High-solubility (dissolved) chemical determinands (such as B, Cl and SO₄), which undergo conservative transport through the river network, show the strongest linkages with land characteristics at the catchment scale. Cr, Zn and Ca show stronger correlations with land characteristics at the locality rather than the catchment scale, indicating that the concentrations of these determinands are more closely linked to the availability of localised sources. This work provides a starting point for investigating how changes in land use and management of drainage basins might impact river water quality at the regional scale and fluxes to the coastal zone, by providing a mechanism for examining linkages between regional-scale land characteristics and river water quality. The next step requires development of the approach within a more rigorous statistical framework and the extension of the regional analysis within a wider national and international context. Electronic Publication     

Unique and species-specific microbial communities in Oscarella lobularis and other Mediterranean Oscarella species (Porifera: Homoscleromorpha)

Homoscleromorph sponges such as Oscarella spp. are characterized by unique morphological features, and Homoscleromorpha were therefore recently proposed as the fourth class of sponges. The microbiology of these sponges was mainly studied by electron microscopy while molecular studies are scarce. The aim of this study was to characterize the bacteria in Oscarella sponges using molecular tools. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis revealed distinct bacterial profiles in five Oscarella species and several color morphs of Oscarella lobularis. These profiles are characteristic of low microbial abundance (LMA) sponges. This was further confirmed by analysis of a 16S rRNA clone library from O. lobularis that yielded a low phylum-level diversity with dominance of Alphaproteobacteria. Bacterial communities in O. lobularis were very similar among different individuals (collected at the same site and time), five different color morphs, and specimens from different depths and locations, indicating a species-specific association. These results allow novel insights into the microbiology of the first known LMA sponge genus within the new class Homoscleromorpha.     

A 200-year perspective on alternative stable state theory and lake management from a biomanipulated shallow lake

Multiple stressors to a shallow lake ecosystem have the ability to control the relative stability of alternative states (clear, macrophyte-dominated or turbid, algal-dominated). As a consequence, the use of remedial biomanipulations to induce trophic cascades and shift a turbid lake to a clear state is often only a temporary solution. Here we show the instability of short-term manipulations in the shallow Lake Christina (Minnesota, USA) is governed by the long-term state following a regime shift in the lake. During the modern, managed period of the lake, three top-down manipulations (fish kills) were undertaken inducing temporary (5-10 years) unstable clear-water states. Paleoecological remains of diatoms, along with proxies of primary production (total chlorophyll a and total organic carbon accumulation rate) and trophic state (total P) from sediment records clearly show a single regime shift in the lake during the early 1950s; following this shift, the functioning of the lake ecosystem is dominated by a persistent turbid state. We find that multiple stressors contributed to the regime shift. First, the lake began to eutrophy (from agricultural land use and/or increased waterfowl populations), leading to a dramatic increase in primary production. Soon after, the construction of a dam in 1936 effectively doubled the depth of the lake, compounded by increases in regional humidity; this resulted in an increase in planktivorous and benthivorous fish reducing phytoplankton grazers. These factors further conspired to increase the stability of a turbid regime during the modern managed period, such that switches to a clear-water state were inherently unstable and the lake consistently returned to a turbid state. We conclude that while top-down manipulations have had measurable impacts on the lake state, they have not been effective in providing a return to an ecosystem similar to the stable historical period. Our work offers an example of a well-studied ecosystem forced by multiple stressors into a new long-term managed period, where manipulated clear-water states are temporary, managed features.