Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.     

A Native Species with Invasive Behaviour in Coastal Dunes: Evidence for Progressing Decay and Homogenization of Habitat Types

A new species has recently invaded coastal dune ecosystems in North West Europe. The native and expansive inland grass, Deschampsia flexuosa, progressively dominating inland heaths, has recently invaded coastal dunes in Denmark, occasionally even as a dominant species. A total of 222 coastal locations with 5,000 random sample plots have been investigated. These findings are in contrast to historical records, and D. flexuosa has never been considered belonging to coastal dune ecosystems. The occurrence of the typical inland grass in the coastal dunes is a strong indication of increase in nutrient level and that human influences may cause a native species to be invasive in new ecosystems. This could be a radical example of change in species composition due to a long lasting exceedance of critical load of nitrogen. The investigation also showed a general increase in cover of the most dominant species.     

ASsessment Of Alcohol Ethoxylate Surfactants And Fatty Alcohols Mixtures In River Sediments And Prospective Risk Assessment

A feasible and relatively readily available analytical method was adapted for the assessment of alcohol ethoxylates (AE) and fatty alcohols (FA) in sediments. This study illustrates the simultaneous measurement of 38 of 114 possible alcohol ethoxylate ethoxymers (AE) and fatty alcohols (FA) found in commercially important AE products. We predicted toxicity for all identified fractions, as well as the total mixture toxicity, relative to three exposure scenarios via sewage treatment plants (STP) for these widely used chemicals in consumer products and hence generate a preliminary environmental risk screening for AE and FA in sediments. The method is based on derivatization of solvent or solid-phase extracts with 2-fluoro-N-methylpyridinium p-toluenesulfonate (Pyr+). The derivatized extracts were analyzed with liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (LC/MS) operating in the positive ion electrospray mode. The extraction efficiency of AE and FA in three different sediments of varying composition was evaluated with spike-recovery studies, ranging from 64% to 80%. The detection limits for individual ethoxymers typically ranged from 1 to 5ngg⁻¹on a dry weight basis. The mean limit of detection (LOD) was 6ngg⁻¹and the median LOD was 3ngg⁻¹. AE and FA in sediments were found to be stable for two weeks if preserved with 3% (v/v) formalin and stored at 4–6^∘C. Based on equilibrium partitioning, background concentrations of AE and FA were predicted to be below concentrations known to elicit chronically toxic effects. Total worst case mixture toxicities for all AE ethoxymers combined with FA were predicted to result in a risk quotient less than 0.6. Activated sludge treatment (STP) significantly reduced the release of total AE and FA by four-fold, suggesting that the total mixture risk quotient would be < 0.15 for sediment dependent organisms.     

Effects of preference heterogeneity among landowners on spatial conservation prioritization

The participation of private landowners in conservation is crucial to efficient biodiversity conservation. This is especially the case in settings where the share of private ownership is large and the economic costs associated with land acquisition are high. We used probit regression analysis and historical participation data to examine the likelihood of participation of Danish forest owners in a voluntary conservation program. We used the results to spatially predict the likelihood of participation of all forest owners in Denmark. We merged spatial data on the presence of forest, cadastral information on participation contracts, and individual‐level socioeconomic information about the forest owners and their households. We included predicted participation in a probability model for species survival. Uninformed and informed (included land owner characteristics) models were then incorporated into a spatial prioritization for conservation of unmanaged forests. The choice models are based on sociodemographic data on the entire population of Danish forest owners and historical data on their participation in conservation schemes. Inclusion in the model of information on private landowners’ willingness to supply land for conservation yielded at intermediate budget levels up to 30% more expected species coverage than the uninformed prioritization scheme. Our landowner‐choice model provides an example of moving toward more implementable conservation planning.     

Environmental change in the Sahel: reconciling contrasting evidence and interpretations

The Sahel has been the object of intensive international research since the drought of the early 1970s. A considerable part of the research has focused on environmental change in general and land degradation, land cover change and climate change in particular. Rich and diverse insights from many different scientific disciplines about these three domains have been put forward. One intriguing feature is that an agreement on the overall trends of environmental change does not appear to emerge: questions such as whether the Sahel is greening, cropland is encroaching on rangelands, drought persists remain contested in the scientific literature, and arguments are supported by contrasting empirical evidence. The paper explores the generic reasons behind this situation in a systematic manner. We distinguish between divergences in interpretations emerging from (1) conceptualizations, definitions and choice of indicators, (2) biases, for example, related to selection of study sites, methodological choices, measurement accuracy, perceptions among interlocutors, and selection of temporal and spatial scales of analysis. The analysis of the root causes for different interpretations suggests that differences in findings could often be considered as complementary insights rather than mutually exclusive. This will have implications for the ways in which scientific results can be expected to support regional environmental policies and contribute to knowledge production.     

Oil exposure in a warmer Arctic: potential impacts on key zooplankton species

Oil exploration activities are rapidly increasing in Arctic marine areas with potentially higher risks of oil spills to the environment. Water temperatures in Arctic marine areas are simultaneously increasing as a result of global warming. Potential effects of a combination of increased water temperature and exposure to the PAH pyrene were investigated on fecal pellet and, egg production and hatching success of two copepod species, Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus glacialis, sampled in Disko Bay, Greenland on 23–25 April 2008. The two species were exposed daily to nominal pyrene concentrations of 0-0.01-0.1-1-10-100 nM at water temperatures of 0.5, 5 and 8°C for 9 and 7 days, respectively. Daily measurements of faecal pellet production, egg production and hatching showed different responses of the two species to the applied stressors. When temperature increased, low concentrations of pyrene caused a decrease in faecal pellet production by C. finmarchicus, whereas C. glacialis faecal pellet production showed no negative response to pyrene exposure when temperatures increased. Pyrene exposure decreased egg production of C. finmarchicus at all temperatures, but the species was more sensitive at 0.5 and 8°C. A lag period of 1 day before egg production began was prolonged with several days when warmer water was combined with pyrene exposure. Egg production by C. glacialis was only negatively affected by pyrene in a dose-dependent manner at 0.5°C. Hatching success in both species was not affected by pyrene, where increased water temperatures led to a higher hatching success. In conclusion, C. glacialis seemed to be the less sensitive of the two species to the stress combination of increased water temperature and pyrene exposure. As a consequence of the differential responses of the two species, their competition can be impaired with a consequent impact on energy transfer between trophic levels.     

Modelling potential habitat for cougars in midwestern North America

Cougars (Puma concolor) are of considerable interest to wildlife biologists and the general public in midwestern North America, yet no researchers have modelled potential habitat in the region. We created a model of potential cougar habitat in 9 midwestern states using geospatial data, expert-opinion surveys, the analytical hierarchy process, and a GIS. About 8% of the study region contained highly favorable habitat (with favorability scores ≥75%) for cougars; the states of Arkansas (19%) and Missouri (16%) contained the highest proportions of potentially favorable habitat. We identified 6 large (≥2500 km² in size), contiguous areas of highly favorable habitat for cougars. Model testing procedures indicated a valid model when compared to an independent set of cougar locations, a null dataset, and similar studies. Our model is useful as a planning tool to proactively address future human-cougar conflicts should cougars re-colonize the Midwest via subadult dispersal.     

Using diatoms to assess the impacts of prehistoric, pre-industrial and modern land-use on Danish lakes

The impact of contemporary agriculture on Danish lakes is acknowledged to be extreme. In particular, high loading of nutrients from agricultural soils contributes to the eutrophic conditions found in many of Denmark’s lakes. Palaeolimnological studies have shown that human disturbance of the Danish landscape since the introduction of agriculture around 6,000 years ago has had a major impact on lake ecosystems. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive requires an evaluation of reference conditions for lakes, the conditions expected with only minimal human impact. Monitoring data and palaeolimnological studies of Danish lakes demonstrate that many of the most detrimental effects of eutrophication have been experienced in recent decades. A new study has suggested that the reference status for Danish lakes may be set to the status in ad 1850–1900, probably providing attainable, realistic restoration targets for many sites. The aims of this study were to explore the impacts of past and contemporary land-use on Danish lakes, and to consider how appropriate the use of 1850 as a date to define reference status is for these sites. Catchment land-cover data for ad 1800, taken from historical maps, and sedimentary diatom assemblages of the same age, from dated sediment cores, were used to assess the impact of pre-industrial land-use on 20 Danish lakes. Analysis of contemporary land-cover data and surface-sediment diatom assemblages for the 20 sites was also made. In-lake total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were estimated using the sedimentary diatom assemblages and an existing calibration dataset for Danish lakes. The percentage of the lake catchment that was agricultural land in ad 1800 explained 8.8% of the total variation in the diatom data. The land-cover variables ‘built-up areas’ and ‘plantations’, together explained 16.9% of the variation in the diatom data for the modern samples. Diatom-inferred TP concentrations were high for both ad 1800 (mean 112 μg TP L⁻¹) and the present (mean 122 μg TP L⁻¹), the latter estimates reflecting efforts in recent decades to reduce nutrient loading to Danish lakes following very high levels of nutrient enrichment post-1950. The data presented highlight the impact that human activities 200 years ago, particularly agriculture, had on Danish lake systems. The long cultural history and major anthropogenic disturbance of the Danish landscape mean that true reference conditions for lakes (or ‘baseline’ conditions, those found prior to human impacts) can be found only by considering century to millennial timescales.