依靠科学进步,促进防灾减灾

以科学技术工作为主线 ,系统地总结了陕西省减灾协会 10年来 ,从事自然灾害综合预测、防灾减灾科学研究、学术交流和科普宣传教育等方面的做法、经验和所取得的初步成效 ,以及如何建设好减灾科技社团的体会     

浅论灾害科学的研究现状

在查阅了大量灾害科学方面的专著、期刊、学位论文和其它文献资料的基础上 ,本文试图对国内外的灾害科学研究现状进行粗浅的讨论     

基于数量化理论Ⅱ的鄂西北山区坡面土壤侵蚀强度评价

水土流失既是资源问题，又是生态环境问题。土壤侵蚀对人类生存和发展构成了严重威胁，成为制约可持续发展的障碍因素。以鄂西北丹江口库区郧西县坡面径流小区为试验点，通过分析小区的实地观测数据，建立坡面土壤侵蚀定性评价指标体系，并将数量化理论II作为有效的数学方法，建立郧西县坡面径流小区土壤侵蚀强度评价模型，对参与建立模型的样本进行回归分析，其准判率达到800%以上，并且利用该模型对其他年份坡面土壤侵蚀强度实测数据进行对比验证，得到土壤侵蚀强度分级的精度较高。研究表明，建立的郧西县坡面径流小区土壤侵蚀强度评价模型有较好的适用性与可靠性，可为郧西县及类似自然地理环境的其他区域水保工作起到一定指导意义     

缙云山银木荷(Schima argentea Pritz.ex Diels)林物种组成与多样性变化

定位研究了25a来缙云山银木荷林物种组成及多样性在自然演替过程中的动态变化。结果表明,银木荷林维管植物物种由57种(隶属于24科,46属)减少到38种(隶属于19科,26属)。林下草本和层间植物逐渐消失,胸径大于7.5cm的乔木层树总胸断面积有所减少。尽管群落物种组成以及多样性发生改变,但是银木荷依然是优势树种,处于林冠层,而林冠亚层的白毛新木姜子、四川山矾、长蕊杜鹃逐渐增多,短刺米槠逐渐减少。群落乔木层4个α多样性指数都呈下降趋势,丰富度指数由2.98下降为1.99,Shannon-Wiener指数25a间减小了0.34,Simpson指数和Pielou指数变化都很小;β多样性分析结果显示,银木荷群落的物种差异很大。研究表明,25a间群落物种差异显著。揭示缙云山银木荷林自然演替过程中的物种组成和多样性变化规律,可为缙云山保护区及长江流域中上游亚热带常绿阔叶林的银木荷群落的管理提供一定的参考价值。     

Winter survival of microbial contaminants in soil:An in situ verification

The aim of the research was to evaluate, at site scale, the influence of freezing and freeze/thaw cycles on the survival of faecal coliforms and faecal enterococci in soil, in a climate change perspective. Before the winter period and during grazing, viable cells of faecal coliforms and faecal enterococci were detected only in the first 10 cm below ground, while,after the winter period and before the new seasonal grazing, a lower number of viable cells of both faecal indicators was detected only in some of the investigated soil profiles, and within the first 5 cm. Taking into consideration the results of specific investigations, we hypothesise that the non-uniform spatial distribution of grass roots within the studied soil can play an important role in influencing this phenomenon, while several abiotic factors do not play any significant role. Taking into account the local trend in the increase of air temperature, a different distribution of microbial pollution over time is expected in spring waters, in future climate scenarios. The progressive increase in air temperature will cause a progressive decrease in freeze/thaw cycles at higher altitudes, minimising cold shocks on microbial cells, and causing spring water pollution also during winter.     

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.