Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: the example of the SEAMLESS integrated framework

Scenario-based approaches in environmental and policy assessment studies are increasingly applied within integrated assessment and modelling frameworks. The SEAMLESS project develops such an integrated framework (SEAMLESS-IF) aiming to assess, ex-ante, impacts of alternative agro-environmental policies on the sustainability of agricultural systems. A particular challenge in this context is the consistent translation of a wide range of policy questions into scenarios that a modelling framework can assess. The present work defines a methodology for scenario-development in integrated policy assessment with specific emphasis on SEAMLESS-IF. After a general overview on scenario concepts for integrated policy assessment the adopted scenario concept and its development procedure is presented. They allow building integrated scenarios capturing the range of drivers of the assessed agricultural system in a consistent way across temporal and spatial scales. Then focus is on the particular procedures to translate the policy assessment questions into scenario parameters and to implement these parameters into SEAMLESS-IF. Two examples targeted at European and regional level combining integrated assessments of policy changes and technological innovations are considered to illustrate the SEAMLESS scenario concept. We conclude that the proposed methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios effectively supports integrated assessment in SEAMLESS-IF or even in other modelling frameworks.     

Match/mismatch between the Mytilus edulis larval supply and seston quality: effect on recruitment

We considered Cushing's match/mismatch theory in a heterotrophic environment and hypothesized that settlement and recruitment success in blue mussel are higher when the food supply is rich in polyunsaturated and essential fatty acids (PUFA/EFA). To test this hypothesis, we monitored larval development as well as fatty acid composition in trophic resources during two successive reproductive seasons. The decoupling we found between the presence of competent larvae in the water column and settlement rates strongly suggests that metamorphosis is delayed until conditions are suitable. In both years, the major mussel settlement peak was synchronized with a phytoplanktonic pulse rich in EFA, consisting of a large autotrophic bloom in 2007 and a short but substantial peak of picoeukaryotes in 2008. These results suggest a "trophic settlement trigger" that indirectly affects recruitment by strongly improving the settlement rate. Despite similar larval settlement rates during both years, the lower 2007 recruitment likely resulted from a mismatch with a high lipid-quality trophic resource. The seasonal trophic conditions differed greatly between the two years, with fatty acids profiles reflecting heterotrophic plankton production in 2007 and mostly autotrophic production in 2008. In agreement with Cushing's theory, our results highlight a match/mismatch, related to the food lipid quality rather than food quantity. For the first time, we show that the recruitment in marine bivalves may be dependent on phytoplanktonic pulses characterized by high levels of PUFA.     

Fitting animal survival models with temporal random effects

Estimating temporal variance in animal demographic parameters is of particular importance in population biology. We implement the Schall’s algorithm for incorporating temporal random effects in survival models using recovery data. Our frequentist approach is based on a formulation of band-recovery models with random effects as generalized linear mixed models and a linearization of the link function conditional on the random effects. A simulation study shows that our procedure provides unbiased and precise estimates. The method is then implemented on two case studies using recovery data on fish and birds.     

Alteration of photosystem II activity by atrazine on Chlamydomonas reinhardtii synchronized and asynchronized cell cycle cultures

Inhibition of photosystem II (PSII) activity by atrazine was investigated in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii during different states of the cell cycle. The algal cultures were maintained under continuous light or under light/dark cycle (16/8?h) to obtain homogenized cell cycle distribution. The cycle state of algal population was determined by the DNA content using flow cytometry and defined as newly divided cells before the initiation of DNA replication (G₀/G₁) and cells at the end of the replication cycle with fully duplicated DNA content (G₂/M). Under different synchronized states of the cell population, the photosynthetic activity was investigated after treatment at 10, 100, and 1000?µmol?L^?1 atrazine exposed for 24?h by using fluorescence parameters related to PSII activity measured with a plant efficiency analyzer and pulse-amplitude modulated methods. In this study, we found that the atrazine effect was different depending on cell cycle phases and the period of illumination. Algal cells under light–dark cycle showed inhibition of the PSII electron transport leading to an increase of heat energy dissipation by the PSII reaction center. Algal cells grown under continuous light was shown to be more resistant to atrazine than the cells grown under light–dark cycle.     

First evidence of large-scale PAH trends in French soils

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widespread organic pollutants. Soils are a reservoir of PAHs because some soil constituents favour PAH accumulation. Therefore, soil is a key indicator of the degree of contamination. So far, studies mapping soil PAH levels over large territories are very rare. Here, we report the first nation-wide maps of soil PAHs in France. Results were obtained within the French National Soil Monitoring Network, which is the first European network monitoring systematically soil PAHs. We used advanced geostatistics to map PAH distribution over the whole French territory. Our results show clear trends of PAH levels at the nation scale. For instance, the highest PAH levels are found in Northern and Eastern France. This high contamination is explained by the intense industrial activity of these regions during the last century. High levels of PAH are also found near some coastlines. This observation could be explained by long-range atmospheric transportation. In addition, we found that light PAHs are rarely found in French topsoils.     

Soil microbial diversity and C turnover modified by tillage and cropping in Laos tropical grassland

Agricultural practices should modify the diversity of soil microbes. However, the precise relationships between soil properties and microbial diversity are poorly known. Here, we study the effect of agricultural management on soil microbial diversity and C turnover in tropical grassland of north-eastern Laos. Three years after native grassland conversion into agricultural land, we compared soils from five land use management systems: one till versus two no-till rotational cropping systems, one no-till improved pasture and the natural grassland. Soils were incubated in microcosms during 64 days at optimum temperature and humidity. Bacterial and fungal diversity were evaluated by metagenomic 454-pyrosequencing of 16S and 18SrRNA genes, respectively. Changes in soil respiration patterns were evaluated by monitoring ¹²C- and ¹³C-CO₂ release after soil amendment with 13C-labelled wheat residues. Results show that residue mineralization increased with bacterial richness and diversity in the tilled treatment 7 days after soil amendment. Native soil organic C mineralization and priming effect increased with fungal richness and diversity in improved pasture and natural grassland. No-till cropping systems represented intermediate situations between tillage and pasture systems. Our findings evidence the potential of controlling soil microbial diversity by agricultural practices to improve soil biological properties. We suggest the promotion of no-till systems as a fair compromise between the need for agriculture intensification and soil ecological processes preservation.     

Foreword

Environmental Modeling & Assessment -     

Bayesian non-parametric detection heterogeneity in ecological models

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Detection heterogeneity is inherent to ecological data, arising from factors such as varied terrain or weather conditions, inconsistent sampling effort, or...     

Contribution of leaf life span and nutrient resorption to mean residence time: elasticity analysis

We tested the relative contribution of leaf life span (LLS) and nutrient resorption efficiency (RE) to nutrient mean residence time (MRT) in plants. To do so, we introduced the use of elasticity analysis, which aims to measure the impact on MRT of a small change in one component, relative to the impact of equal changes in the other element. We also quantified the joint effect of LLS and RE on MRT, which required the calculation of the second derivatives of MRT with respect to LLS and RE. The estimation of the first derivatives showed that, although MRT increases linearly with LLS for a given value of RE, the relative effect of RE on MRT elasticity varies according to RE values; when RE > 0.5, the MRT's elasticity increases exponentially. The calculation of the second derivatives confirmed the importance of RE on MRT's variation. We used the results of the elasticity analysis to analyze how MRT responded to variation in LLS and nitrogen RE on MRT at the intra- and interspecific levels. For this, we used 18 plant species from three stages of a Mediterranean old-field succession, grown in a common garden experiment at two levels of nitrogen supply.     

Intergenerational effects of climate generate cohort variation in lizard reproductive performance

An evaluation of the link between climate and population dynamics requires understanding of climate effects both within and across generations. In ectothermic vertebrates, demographic responses to climate changes should crucially depend on balancing needs for heat and water. Here, we studied how temperature and rainfall regimes experienced before and during adulthood influenced reproductive performances (litter size, offspring size, and survival) in a natural population of the live-bearing common lizard, Lacerta vivipara, monitored continuously from 1989 to 2004. Rainfall regime, but not temperature, had both immediate and delayed effects on these reproductive performances. Rainfall during the first month of life was positively correlated with juvenile survival. Females experiencing more rainfall during gestation produced smaller neonates that showed greater survival when controlling for the positive effect of body size on survival. Furthermore, females that experienced heavier rainfall when in utero produced fewer but longer neonates during adulthood. These demographic effects of rainfall on adult reproductive traits may come from maternal effects of climate conditions and/or from delayed effects of rainfall on the environment experienced early in life. Irrespective of the precise mechanism, however, this study provides evidence of intergenerational climate effects in natural populations of an ectothermic vertebrate.