Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions.     

Mutualism as reciprocal exploitation: African plant-ants defend foliar but not reproductive structures

The foundation of many plant-ant mutualisms is ant protection of plants from herbivores in exchange for food and/or shelter. While the role of symbiotic ants in protecting plants from stem- and leaf-feeding herbivores has been intensively studied, the relationship between ant defense and measures of plant fitness has seldom been quantified. We studied ant aggression, damage by herbivores and seed predators, and fruit production among Acacia drepanolobium trees occupied by four different acacia-ant species in an East African savanna. Levels of ant aggression in response to experimental disturbance differed strongly among the four species. All four ant species recruited more strongly to new leaf growth on host plants following disturbance, while recruitment to developing fruits was on average an order of magnitude lower. Host plants occupied by more aggressive ant species suffered significantly less vegetative damage from leaf-feeding insects, stem-boring beetles, and vertebrate browsers than host plants occupied by less aggressive ant species. However, there were no differences among fruiting host plants occupied by different ant species in levels of seed predation by bruchid seed predators. Fruit production on host trees was significantly correlated with tree stem diameter but not with the identity of resident ants. Our results demonstrate that defense of host plants may differ substantially among ant species and between vegetative and reproductive structures and that fruit production is not necessarily correlated with high levels of aggression by resident ants.     

Comparison of methods used to calculate typical threshold values for potentially toxic elements in soil

The environmental quality of land can be assessed by calculating relevant threshold values, which differentiate between concentrations of elements resulting from geogenic and diffuse anthropogenic sources and concentrations generated by point sources of elements. A simple process allowing the calculation of these typical threshold values (TTVs) was applied across a region of highly complex geology (Northern Ireland) to six elements of interest; arsenic, chromium, copper, lead, nickel and vanadium. Three methods for identifying domains (areas where a readily identifiable factor can be shown to control the concentration of an element) were used: k-means cluster analysis, boxplots and empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF). The ECDF method was most efficient at determining areas of both elevated and reduced concentrations and was used to identify domains in this investigation. Two statistical methods for calculating normal background concentrations (NBCs) and upper limits of geochemical baseline variation (ULBLs), currently used in conjunction with legislative regimes in the UK and Finland respectively, were applied within each domain. The NBC methodology was constructed to run within a specific legislative framework, and its use on this soil geochemical data set was influenced by the presence of skewed distributions and outliers. In contrast, the ULBL methodology was found to calculate more appropriate TTVs that were generally more conservative than the NBCs. TTVs indicate what a “typical” concentration of an element would be within a defined geographical area and should be considered alongside the risk that each of the elements pose in these areas to determine potential risk to receptors.     

Sequential concentration of bacteria and viruses from marine waters using a dual membrane system

The ability to rapidly and effectively concentrate diverse microbes is an essential component for monitoring water quality at recreational beaches. The purpose of this study was to develop a 0.45 microm pore size dual membrane system, which can sequentially concentrate both viruses and bacteria. The top PVDF membrane was used to filter bacteria by physical straining while the bottom HA membrane retained viruses through adsorption. The recovery of this system was assessed using test organisms: enterococci and somatic coliphage. Volumes of 100 to 400 mL of unspiked and sewage-spiked beach water were filtered through both types of membranes. The PVDF membrane recovered statistically equivalent amounts of enterococci when compared to traditional membranes. All of the coliphage passed through the PVDF membrane, while 22% passed through the HA membrane. Increasing the volume from 100 to 400 mL did not significantly influence recoveries. Up to 35% of coliphage was eluted from the bottom membrane using beef extract solution. Rinsing bottom membranes with 0.5 mmol L(-1) H(2)S0(4) was found to deactivate somatic coliphage. This research demonstrates the potential of using a dual membrane adsorption system for the concentration of both bacteria and viruses from recreational beaches. A proposed bi-layer filtration system can be designed for simultaneous bacteria and virus filtration. Future experiments should focus on measurements utilizing additional bacteria and viruses.     

The perceived scenic effects of clearcutting in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, USA

The scenic effects of clearcutting have been a volatile issue for the American public for much of the past century. A better understanding of the scenic perceptions associated with the cumulative visible effects of clearcutting should contribute to better decisions about its use. This study evaluates the scenic impacts of simulated alternative clearcutting management systems for the White Mountain National Forest. Alternatives represented an unharvested view, and views with removal of 1–5% of the timber every 12 years using either scattered or concentrated clearcut units of 5, 15 and 30 acres in two viewsheds. A random sample of local citizens, four groups of opinion leaders, and US Forest Service employees evaluated these alternatives. Each factor accounts for significant differences in scenic value. All groups rated the scenic value of unharvested scenes very high. All groups find a large drop in scenic value with the introduction of even the least intense harvesting activity. All groups indicated a statistically significant decrease in visual quality as the intensity of harvesting increases. This effect continues throughout the range of harvesting intensities until the level of sustainable yield is reached. In addition, patches 12–15 acres in size were preferred to larger and smaller ones.     

Air emissions of ammonia and methane from livestock operations: valuation and policy options

The animal husbandry industry is a major emitter of ammonia (NH3), which is a precursor of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)--arguably, the number-one environment-related public health threat facing the nation. The industry is also a major emitter of methane (CH4), which is an important greenhouse gas (GHG). We present an integrated process model of the engineering economics of technologies to reduce NH3 and CH4 emissions at dairy operations in California. Three policy options are explored: PM offset credits for NH3 control, GHG offset credits for CH4 control, and expanded net metering policies to provide revenue for the sale of electricity generated from captured methane (CH4) gas. Individually these policies vary substantially in the economic incentives they provide for farm operators to reduce emissions. We report on initial steps to fully develop the integrated process model that will provide guidance for policy-makers.     

Spatiotemporal distribution of airborne elements monitored with the moss bags technique in the Greater Thriasion Plain, Attica, Greece

The well-known moss bags technique was applied in the heavily polluted Thriasion Plain region, Attica, Greece, in order to study the spatiotemporal distribution, in the atmosphere, of the following 32 elements: Na, Al, Cl, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Co, Zn, As, Se, Br, Sr, Mo, Sb, I, Ba, La, Ce, Sm, Tb, Dy, Yb, Hf, Ta, Hg, Th, and U. The moss bags were constituted of Sphagnum girgensohnii materials. The bags were exposed to ambient air in a network of 12 monitoring stations scattered throughout the monitoring area. In order to explore the temporal variation of the pollutants, four sets of moss bags were exposed for 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Instrumental neutral activation analysis was used for the determinations of the elements. The data were analyzed using the Pearson correlations, the partial redundancy analysis, and the biplot statistical methods. Some pairs of elements were highly correlated indicating a probable common source of origin. The levels of the measured pollutants were unevenly distributed throughout the area and different pollutants exhibited different spatial patterns. In general, higher loads were observed in the stations close to and within the industrial zone. Most of the measured elements (e.g., Al, Ca, Ni, I, Zn, Cr, and As) exhibited a monotonic accumulation trend over time. Some elements exhibited different dynamics. The elements Mn, Mo, and Hg showed a decreasing trend, probably due to leaching and/or volatilization processes over time. Na and Br initially showed an increasing trend during the winter and early spring periods but decreased drastically during the late warm period. The results further suggest that the moss bags technique would be considered valuable for the majority of elements but should be used with caution in the cases of elements vulnerable to leaching and/or volatilization. It also suggests that the timing and the duration of the exposure of moss materials should be considered in the interpretation of the results.     

Physiological and Biochemical Effects of Atmospheric Oxidants on Plants

Photochemically produced oxidants in the atmosphere cause injury to plants primarily through inhibition of basic metabolic processes. Plants vary in their response to the oxidants and this variation must be dependent in part on the variation in metabolic activity with age or environmental conditions for growth, to a large degree not understood. Data are presented in this paper to show: (1) The changes in permeability of leaf tissue to exogenous substrate and in catabolic utilization of this substrate after exposure of plants to ozone but before visible symptoms appear; (2) The change in leaf carbohydrates as a result of exposure to ozone; (3) The protective effect of red light (700 mμ) during exposure of bean plants to peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN); (4) The correlation of sulfhydryl (SH) content in bean leaf tissue with age of plants and light regime; and (5) Effect of light regime and age of plants on incorporation of C¹⁴ from C¹⁴-PAN by bean leaf tissue.     

Detecting pigments from colourful eggshells of extinct birds

The known chemical basis of diverse avian eggshell coloration is generated by the same two classes of tetrapyrrole pigments in most living birds. We aimed to extend the evolutionary scope of these patterns by detecting pigments from extinct birds’ eggs. In our samples biliverdin was successfully extracted from subfossil shell fragments of the blue-green egg-laying upland moa Megalapteryx didinus, while protoporphyrin was extracted from the beige eggs of two other extinct moa species. Our data on pigment detection from eggshells of other extant paleognath birds, together with published information on other modern lineages, confirm tetrapyrroles as ubiquitous and conserved pigments contributing to diverse eggshell colours throughout avian evolution.     

Humic acids as reducing agents: the involvement of quinoid moieties in arsenate reduction

Purpose  

Dissolved humic acids abiotically reduced inorganic arsenic to varying degrees, depending on solution pH, ionic strength, and type of humate used. The functionalities of dissolved organic matter responsible for these redox reactions remained in question, but quinoid moieties undoubtedly played an important role. It is not fully understood whether the quinoids are solely responsible for arsenate reduction, and what the kinetics of the relevant processes are.