Optimizing dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae using network flow

We introduce a new way of measuring and optimizing connectivity in conservation landscapes through time, accounting for both the biological needs of multiple species and the social and financial constraint of minimizing land area requiring additional protection. Our method is based on the concept of network flow; we demonstrate its use by optimizing protected areas in the Western Cape of South Africa to facilitate autogenic species shifts in geographic range under climate change for a family of endemic plants, the Cape Proteaceae. In 2005, P. Williams and colleagues introduced a novel framework for this protected area design task. To ensure population viability, they assumed each species should have a range size of at least 100 km2 of predicted suitable conditions contained in protected areas at all times between 2000 and 2050. The goal was to design multiple dispersal corridors for each species, connecting suitable conditions between time periods, subject to each species' limited dispersal ability, and minimizing the total area requiring additional protection. We show that both minimum range size and limited dispersal abilities can be naturally modeled using the concept of network flow. This allows us to apply well-established tools from operations research and computer science for solving network flow problems. Using the same data and this novel modeling approach, we reduce the area requiring additional protection by a third compared to previous methods, from 4593 km2 to 3062 km , while still achieving the same conservation planning goals. We prove that this is the best solution mathematically possible: the given planning goals cannot be achieved with a smaller area, given our modeling assumptions and data. Our method allows for flexibility and refinement of the underlying climate-change, species-habitat-suitability, and dispersal models. In particular, we propose an alternate formalization of a minimum range size moving through time and use network flow to achieve the revised goals, again with the smallest possible newly protected area (2850 km2). We show how to relate total dispersal distance to probability of successful dispersal, and compute a trade-off curve between this quantity and the total amount of extra land that must be protected.     

Compositional and functional stability of arthropod communities in the face of ant invasions

There is a general consensus that the diversity of a biotic community can have an influence on its stability, but the strength, ubiquity, and relative importance of this effect is less clear. In the context of biological invasions, diversity has usually been studied in terms of its effect on a community's invasibility, but diversity may also influence stability by affecting the magnitude of compositional or functional changes experienced by a community upon invasion. We examined the impacts of invasive ants on arthropod communities at five natural area sites in the Hawaiian Islands, and assessed whether differences among sites in community diversity and density variables were related to measures of stability. Ant invasion was usually associated with significant changes in overall community composition, as measured by Bray-Curtis distances, particularly among endemic subsets of the communities. Changes in mean species richness were also strong at three of the five sites. Among sites, diversity was negatively related to stability as measured by resistance to overall compositional change, but this effect could not be separated from the strong negative effect of invasive ant density on compositional stability. When compositional stability was measured as proportional change in richness, the best predictor of stability among endemic community subsets was endemic richness, with richer communities losing proportionately more species than species-poor communities. This effect was highly significant even after controlling for differences in invasive ant density and suggested that communities that had already lost many endemic species were resistant to further species loss upon ant invasion, while more intact communities remained vulnerable to species loss. Communities underwent strong but idiosyncratic functional shifts in association with ant invasion, both in terms of trophic structure and total arthropod biomass. There were no apparent relationships, however, between functional stability and community diversity or density measures. Instead, invasive ant density was the best among-site predictor of the magnitude of functional change. Overall, diversity appeared to be a poor predictor of stability in the face of ant invasion in these communities, possibly because any actual diversity effects were overshadowed by community-specific factors and variation in the magnitude of the ant-mediated perturbation.     

Strong variability in bacterioplankton abundance and production in central and western Bay of Bengal

With large influx of freshwater that decreases sea-surface salinities, weak wind forcing of <10 m s⁻¹ and almost always warm (>28°C) sea-surface temperature that stratifies and shallows the mixed layer leading to low or no nutrient injections into the surface, primary production in Bay of Bengal is reportedly low. As a consequence, the Bay of Bengal is considered as a region of low biological productivity. Along with many biological parameters, bacterioplankton abundance and production were measured in the Bay of Bengal during post monsoon (September–October 2002) along an open ocean transect, in the central Bay (CB, 88°E) and the other transect in the western Bay (WB). The latter representing the coastal influenced shelf/slope waters. Bacterioplankton abundances (<2 × 10⁹cells l⁻¹) were similar to those reported from the HNLC equatorial Pacific and the highly productive northern Arabian Sea. Yet, the thymidine uptake rates along CB (average of 1.46 pM h⁻¹) and WB (average of 1.40 pM h⁻¹) were less than those from the northwestern Indian Ocean. These abundances and uptake rates were higher than those in the oligotrophic northwestern Sargasso Sea (<7 × 10⁸ cells l⁻¹; av 1.0 pM h⁻¹). Concentrations of chlorophyll a (chl a), primary production rates and total organic carbon (TOC) were also measured for a comparison of heterotrophic and autotrophic production. In the WB, bacterioplankton carbon biomass equaled ∼ 95% of chl a carbon than just 31% in the CB. Average bacterial:primary production (BP:PP) ratios accounted for 29% in the CB and 31% in the WB. This is mainly due to lower primary productivity (PP) in the WB (281 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) than in the CB (306 mg C m⁻² day⁻¹). This study indicates that bacteria–phytoplankton relationship differs in the open (CB) and coastal waters (WB). Higher abundance and contrastingly low bacterial production (BP) in WB may be because of the riverine bacteria, brought in through discharges, becoming dormant and unable to reproduce in salinities of 28 or more psu. Heterotrophic bacteria appear to utilize in situ DOC rather rapidly and their carbon demand is ∼50% of daily primary production. It is also apparent that allochthonous organic matter, in particular in the western Bay, is important for meeting their carbon demand.     

When all life counts in conservation

Conservation science involves the collection and analysis of data. These scientific practices emerge from values that shape who and what is counted. Currently, conservation data are filtered through a value system that considers native life the only appropriate subject of conservation concern. We examined how trends in species richness, distribution, and threats change when all wildlife count by adding so-called non-native and feral populations to the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and local species richness assessments. We focused on vertebrate populations with founding members taken into and out of Australia by humans (i.e., migrants). We identified 87 immigrant and 47 emigrant vertebrate species. Formal conservation accounts underestimated global ranges by an average of 30% for immigrants and 7% for emigrants; immigrations surpassed extinctions in Australia by 52 species; migrants were disproportionately threatened (33% of immigrants and 29% of emigrants were threatened or decreasing in their native ranges); and incorporating migrant populations into risk assessments reduced global threat statuses for 15 of 18 species. Australian policies defined most immigrants as pests (76%), and conservation was the most commonly stated motivation for targeting these species in killing programs (37% of immigrants). Inclusive biodiversity data open space for dialogue on the ethical and empirical assumptions underlying conservation science.     

The moral residue of conservation

Should conservationists use lethal management to control introduced wildlife populations? Should they kill individual animals to protect endangered species? Are trade-offs that prioritize some values at the expense of others morally appropriate? These sorts of ethical questions are common in conservation. In debating such questions, conservationists often seem to presume 1 of 2 possible answers: the act in question is right or it is wrong. But morality in conservation is considerably more complex than this simple binary suggests. A robust conservation ethic requires a vocabulary that gives voice to the uncertainty and unease that arise when what seems to be the best available course of action also seems to involve a measure of wrongdoing. The philosophical literature on moral residue and moral dilemmas supplies this vocabulary. Moral dilemmas arise when one must neglect certain moral requirements to fulfill others. Under such circumstances, even the best possible decision leaves a moral residue, which is experienced emotionally as some form of grief. Examples of conservation scenarios that leave a moral residue include management of introduced rabbits in Australia, trophy hunting in Africa, and forest management trade-offs in the Pacific Northwest. Moral residue is integral to the moral experience of conservationists today, and grief is an appropriate response to many decisions conservationists must make. Article impact statement: Defensible conservation decisions may neglect moral requirements, leaving a moral residue; conservationists should respond with grief.     

Assessing plausible rates of population growth in humpback whales from life-history data

The rate of growth of any population is a quantity of interest in conservation and management and is constrained by biological factors. In this study, recent data on life-history parameters influencing rates of population growth in humpback whales, including survival, age at first parturition and calving rate are reviewed. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compute a distribution of rates of increase (ROIs) taking into account uncertainty in biological parameter estimates. Two approaches for computing juvenile survival are proposed, which taken into account along with other life-history data, resulted in the following estimates of the rate of population growth: Approach A: mean of 7.3%/year (95% CI = 3.5–10.5%/year) and Approach B: mean of 8.6%/year (95% CI = 5.0–11.4%/year). It is proposed that the upper 99% quantile of the resulting distribution of the ROI for Approach B (11.8%/year) be established as the maximum plausible ROI for humpback whales and be used in population assessment of the species. Possible sources of positive and negative biases in the present estimates are presented and include measurement error in estimation of life-history parameters, changes in the environment within the period these quantities are measured, density dependence or other natural factors. However, it is difficult to evaluate potential biases without additional data. The methods presented in this study can be applied to other species for which life-history parameters are available and are useful in assessing plausibility in the estimation of population growth rates from time series of abundance estimates.     

Persistence models for mark-recapture

The stable of models available for analyzing mark-recapture data (Otis et al. Wild Momogr 66:135, 1978) includes those having behavioral characteristics, time variation, heterogeneity, along with combinations of those characteristics. This paper proposes use of a series of models based on the persistence model of Ramsey and Usner (Biometrics 59:331–339, 2003). We show that persistence can be modeled in combination with behavior and with time variation. We apply the persistence model to situations in which capture occasions are not equally-spaced in time. Two case studies illustrate the use of these extended persistence models.     

Studying dispersal at the landscape scale: efficient combination of population surveys and capture-recapture data

Researchers often rely on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data to study animal dispersal in the wild. Yet their spatial coverage often does not encompass the entire dispersal range of the study individuals, sometimes producing misleading results. Information contained in population surveys and variation in population spatial structure can be used to overcome this issue. We build an integrated model in a multisite context in which CMR data are only collected at a subset of sites, but numbers of breeding pairs are counted at all sites. In a Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus population, the integrated-modeling approach induces an increase in precision for the demographic parameters of interest (variances, on average, were decreased by 20%) and provides a more precise extrapolation of results from the CMR data to the whole population. Patterns of condition-dependent dispersal are therefore made easier to detect, and we obtain evidence for colony-size dependence in recruitment, dispersal, and breeding success. These results suggest that first-time breeders disperse to small colonies in order to recruit earlier. The exchange of experienced breeders between colonies appears as a main determinant of the observed variation in colony sizes.