Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

Application of principal component analysis for the estimation of source of heavy metal contamination in surface sediments from the Rybnik Reservoir

The concentrations of metals, loss of ignition and nutrient (N, P) were determined in the bottom sediments of the Rybnik Reservoir (southern Poland). The mean concentrations of the metals in the bottom sediments were: Cd 25.8 microgram/g, Cu 451.7 microgram/g, Zn 1583.4 microgram/g, Ni 71.1 microgram/g, Pb 118.6 microgram/g, Cr 129.8 microgram/g, Fe 38782 microgram/g and Mn 2018.7 microgram/g. The bottom sediments are very heavily loaded with zinc, manganese, copper, nickel, phosphorus and lead (percentage enrichment factor), and cadmium, phosphorus and zinc (index of geoaccumulation). The increase of cadmium, lead, nickel and zinc concentrations was connected with the inflow of the contaminated water of the river Ruda and long-range transport. The contamination of the reservoir with copper and manganese resulted mainly from atmospheric precipitation. The variability of the bottom sediment loading with metals during the investigations was affected in the first place by changes in the concentration of iron, but also those elements whose concentrations in the bottom sediment were elevated compared to the concentrations in shale--cadmium, nickel and lead.     

Seasonal variability of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) congener profiles in butter in Poland: Dietary risk evaluation

Various statistical methods have been employed to analyse in details seasonal diversification of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)/polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) congener profiles found in butter fat. The variability of the PCB/PBDE congener profiles indicates the presence of various sources of the milk fat contamination. The obtained results suggest that the environmental chemical background has the highest share in the contamination sources pattern. Ion trap mass spectrometry coupled to high-resolution gas chromatography with semi-permeable membrane dialysis sample cleanup was used for determination of PCBs and PBDEs in milk fat. Determined butter fat PCB profiles were similar to the profiles characteristic for Aroclor 1254 technical mixture. Our data indicate that dietary intake of PCB/PBDE with milk and milk products may be estimated to be about 717.5 pg kg b.w.^?1 day^?1 for six-indicator PCBs, 0.329 (equivalent toxicity, TEQ) pg kg b.w.^?1 day^?1 for 12 DL PCBs and 50 pg kg b.w.^?1 day^?1 for PBDEs (sum of 14 congeners).     

Mercury in Precipitation at an Urbanized Coastal Zone of the Baltic Sea (Poland)

Wet deposition is an important source of metals to the sea. The temporal variability of Hg concentrations in precipitation, and the impact of air masses of different origins over the Polish coastal zone were assessed. Samples of precipitation were collected (August 2008–May 2009) at an urbanized coastal station in Poland. Hg analyses were conducted using CVAFS. These were the first measurements of Hg concentration in precipitation obtained in the Polish coastal zone. Since Poland was identified as the biggest emitter of Hg to the Baltic, these data are very important. In the heating and non-heating season, Hg concentrations in precipitation were similar. Hg wet deposition flux dominated in summer, when the production of biomass in the aquatic system was able to actively adsorb Hg. Input of metal to the sea was attributed to regional and distant sources. Maritime air masses, through transformation of Hg(0), were an essential vector of mercury in precipitation.     

The significance of agricultural vs. natural ecosystem pathways in temperate climates in assessments of long-term radiological impact

Recent developments in performance assessment biosphere models have begun to emphasise the importance of natural accumulation pathways. In contrast to the agricultural pathways, the database for natural ecosystem pathways is less well developed, leading to a mismatch in quality of representations of the two types of system. At issue is the lack of reliable soil-plant and animal ingestion transfer factors for key radionuclides in natural ecosystems. The relative importance of the agricultural vs. natural ecosystem pathways is investigated here, in the context of a temperate site in present day, Eastern France. The BIOMASS Candidate Critical Group (CCG) methodology has been applied to map a set of eight candidate critical groups derived from the present-day societal context onto physical locations within a simple model of a river catchment system. The overall assessment model has been implemented using the Aquabios code. Annual individual dose to each of the CCGs has been calculated for each of the key radionuclides (79Se, 94Nb, 99Tc, 129I, 135Cs and 237Np) released to the valley aquifer and river. In addition to the traditional agricultural pathways, lifestyle groups exploiting natural habitats are explicitly addressed. Results show the susceptibility of different candidate critical groups to different radionuclides. A reference database typical of those employed in long-term performance assessment models is employed. Doses from external exposure (94Nb) and dust inhalation (237Np) are shown to dominate agricultural food consumption by factors of more than six, but, with the reference data set, foodstuffs obtained from natural ecosystems do not contribute significantly to critical group dose and, at most, show similar exposures to the agricultural pathways. This may lead to the conclusion that natural food can be ruled out of consideration in performance assessment models. However, systematic parametric sensitivity studies carried out on soil-plant and animal ingestion transfer factors restrict the validity of this observation and demonstrate the limitations of existing databases. Remaining uncertainties can be reduced by improving structural models for performance assessment and by better characterisation of sources of locally obtained foods. Improved characterisation of radionuclide accumulation in natural ecosystems in temperate as well as alternative future climate states should complement the modelling approach.     

Changes in river discharge structure and regime in mining-industrial-urban areas

In mining-industrial-urban areas, the variability of river discharge is regulated, directly or indirectly, by human economic activity. This results from the presence of alien water, which often comes from outside the catchment area, is discharged into the river network. This water includes industrial and municipal wastewater and deep-drainage mine water. Simultaneously, as a result of water intake and water infiltration into dry ground (due to mining), the volume of river discharge decreases. Such changeable conditions of water alimentation and drainage are typical of many regions of Europe. Detailed investigations of the range and directions of changes in river structure and regime were carried out for the area of Upper Silesian Industrial Region (USIR) of Poland. The results were compared with the results of investigations carried out in the Ruhr Basin of Germany and the Donetsk Basin of the Ukraine and Russia. The investigations showed that, in some cases, prolonged, multifunctional economic activity of a man has effectively eliminated of the influence of natural hydrometeorological conditions on river discharge. Wastewater and mine water which has contributed to river flow is only slightly variable in the annual cycle and it causes an increase of water volume and a discharge smoothing. Sewage effluent and mine wastewater also change the structure of river runoff because their contribution to the runoff sometimes exceeds 90% of its volume.     

Concentrations of toxic heavy metals and trace elements in raw milk of Simmental and Holstein-Friesian cows from organic farm

Concentrations of toxic heavy metals (cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb)) and major nutritional and trace elements (Ca, Mg, P, Cu, Fe, Mn, Se, Zn) were analyzed in the milk of Simmental (n?=?20) and Holstein-Friesian (n?=?20) cows from an organic farm. Elements were determined using inductively coupled plasma emission atomic spectrometry. The conducted research showed that the milk of Simmental cows was characterized by the more advantageous mineral composition and lower concentration of noxious heavy metals compared to the milk of Holstein-Friesian cows. In the milk of Simmental cows, significantly lower concentrations of Pb and Cd (P?<?0.001) and Cu (P?<?0.05) and significantly higher concentrations of Fe and Mg (P?<?0.05) as well as nonsignificantly higher concentrations of Ca, Mn, and Se were found. In the milk of both breeds, very low Cu concentrations were recorded. The higher-than-recommended concentration of Pb in milk was also found. In the milk of both breeds, the significant positive correlations between concentrations of the following elements were observed: Pb–Cd, Pb–Se, Cd–Se, Cd–Mn, Zn–Cu, Zn–P, Ca–P, Ca–Mg, and Mg–P. The correlations between other elements within each of the analyzed breeds separately were also found.     

Influence of formulation on mobility of metazachlor in soil

The mobility of metazachlor [2-chloro-N-(pyrazol-1-ylmethyl)acet-2′,6′-xylidide] in sand soil and loamy sand soil was studied in a soil column under laboratory conditions. Commercial metazachlor formulation (Metazachlor 500 suspension concentrate (SC)) and metazachlor immobilized in alginate matrix were used for leaching experiment. The initial concentration of metazachlor in soil for both formulations was 2.0 mg mL^?1. After application of herbicide, the columns were irrigated with 100, 40, and 3.7 mm of water. After 1 h, when addition of water was completed, soils were sampled in 5-cm segments and were used for the analysis of residues. The use of alginate controlled release (CR) formulation reduced the vertical mobility of metazachlor into soil layer in comparison with the formulation SC.     

Study of 222Rn concentrations in drinking water in the north-eastern hydroregions of Poland

This paper presents the results of radon concentration measurements in the drinking water from the municipal water supply system and private wells located in the north-eastern part of Poland. The measurements were carried out on 643 samples using a liquid scintillation method. The mean value was found to be 5262 Bq m-3 with a maximum of 38347 Bq m-3. The samples were obtained from different water-bearing levels, i.e. surface water, deep borehole water and well water and have respective mean values of 3398, 5178 and 6155 Bq m-3. In 57 water samples, a guideline maximum level of 11,000 Bq m-3 was found to be exceeded. The observed radon concentration in water can contribute to a 2% increase in indoor radon concentration.