Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future

Flood damages have exhibited a rapid upward trend, both globally and in Europe, faster than population and economic growth. Hence, vigorous attempts of attribution of changes have been made. Flood risk and vulnerability tend to change over many areas, due to a range of climatic and nonclimatic impacts whose relative importance is site-specific. Flooding is a complex phenomenon and there are several generating mechanisms, among others intense and/or long-lasting precipitation, snowmelt, ice jam. Projected climate-driven changes in future flood frequency are complex, depending on the generating mechanism, e.g., increasing flood magnitudes where floods result of heavy rainfall and possibly decreasing magnitudes where floods are generated by spring snowmelt. Climate change is likely to cause an increase of the risk of riverine flooding across much of Europe. Projections of flood hazard in Europe based on climatic and hydrological models, reviewed in this paper, illustrate possible changes of recurrence of a 100-year flood (with probability of exceedance being 1-in-100 years) in Europe. What used to be a 100-year flood in the control period is projected to become either more frequent or less frequent in the future time horizon of concern. For a large part of the continent, large flooding is projected to become more commonplace in future, warmer climate. Due to the large uncertainty of climate projections, it is currently not possible to devise a scientifically-sound procedure for redefining design floods (e.g. 100-year flood) in order to adjust flood defenses. For the time being, we recommend to adjust design floods using a “climate change factor” approach.     

Framing Shale Gas for Policy-Making in Poland

Despite enthusiasm about new gas reserves, shale gas has not come to Poland without controversies. This study examines how shale gas has been framed as a public issue by political and business elites, experts, local communities and civil society organizations. Through a frame analysis, we found three main frames about shale gas: shale gas as a novel economic resource, as a strategic resource for energy security and as a threat. However, only the first two frames, proposed by political and business elites, have shaped the policy process. The third frame, constructed by local actors and civil society groups, has had minimal impact. We explain this exclusion drawing on the deficit model of risk communication. This approach reveals that Polish experts, and business and political actors, during their interactions with local groups, have framed proponents of the threat frame as ‘incompetent actors’ effectively excluding the threat frame from policy processes.     

Insects perceive local sex ratio in the absence of tactile or visual sex-specific cues

Numerous studies have demonstrated adaptive behavioral responses of males and females to changes in operational sex ratio (the ratio of potentially receptive males to receptive females; OSR), and theory often assumes that animals have perfect instantaneous knowledge about the OSR. However, the role of sensory mechanisms in monitoring the local sex ratio by animals and whether animals can perceive local sex ratio in a manner consistent with model assumptions have not been well addressed. Here, we show that mating water striders Gerris gracilicornis respond to local sex ratio even when visual and physical contact with other individuals were experimentally prohibited. Our study shows that insects are able to estimate local population's sex ratio and adjust their behavior based on nonvisual cues perceived at a distance or released to the habitat. Hence, the frequent theoretical assumption that individuals have knowledge about their local sex ratio regardless of their direct behavioral interactions may be an acceptable approximation of reality.     

The trophic status of Suwałki Landscape Park lakes based on selected parameters (NE Poland)

This study describes changes in the trophic status of 12 lakes within Suwa?ki Landscape Park (SLP). All of the trophic classifications of the lakes were based on the trophic continuum division. Trophic status was determined by means of multiparameter indices using several diverse criteria. In this study, the assessment of the trophic status of lakes included water quality; abundance and biomass of bacterioplankton, phytoplankton, and zooplankton; and primary production of phytoplankton. The Carlson trophic state index (TSI) describes the level of water fertility and indicated the dominance of moderately eutrophic waters. Lakes Perty, Jeglówek, and Hańcza have a trophic status that indicates mesotrophy (TSI <50). The trophic status of the studied lakes was determined based on the bacterial abundance and clearly showed a lack of oligotrophic lakes in SLP. Based on the number of bacteria, only Lake Szurpi?y can be classified as β-mesotrophic, whereas Lake Linówek can be characterized as hypertrophic with some features typical for humic waters. The greatest value of gross primary production was observed in Lake Linówek (126.4 mg C/m³/h). The phytoplankton trophy index varied from 1.59 to 2.28, and its highest value, which indicated eutrophy, was determined for Lake Udziejek. In the case of Lakes Hańcza, Szurpi?y, Perty, Jeglówek, and Kojle, the index ranged from 1.25 to 1.74, which indicated mesotrophy. The majority of the lakes were classified as mesoeutrophic (1.75–2.24). The highest trophic status was assessed for lakes with a marked dominance of cyanobacteria (Lake Przechodnie, Lake Krajwelek, Lake Udziejek, and Lake Pogorza?ek), which is commonly recognized as an indicator of high trophic status. Considering all of the indices of trophic status, the analysis of rotifer community structure indicates that the studied group of lakes is mesoeutrophic or eutrophic. The values of crustacean zooplankton indices indicated that the trophic status of the studied lakes was close to that determined using a TSI. The parameters of zooplankton abundance and species structure allowed for the observance of changes in the tropic levels of lakes, which are difficult to detect by a chemical assay alone.     

Contamination of Polish national parks with heavy metals

The paper presents results of screening analysis of all Polish national parks (23) contamination with Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn on the basis of a three-level characteristic of heavy metal presence in Norway spruce stands: accumulation on the needle surface, concentration of heavy metals in spruce needles and concentration of bioavailable heavy metals in the soil. Based on the obtained results, the classification of forest ecosystem hazard in national parks with heavy metals was made using synthetic indicators. It was found out that Babiogórski, Magurski, Ojcowski and Gorczański National Parks, located in the southern part of the country, were the most polluted with heavy metals. It is probably due to a higher industrial activity in this part of Poland and the transboundary transport of air pollutants. A little lower level of pollution was observed in Kampinoski National Park located in the middle of the country. The concentration of heavy metals found in needles from national parks does not seem to be harmful for the health status of the trees. Statistically significant correlation between all parameters, which was found for cadmium--the most mobile of the analysed elements--shows that this metal can be proposed as a marker to reflect present effect of industrial emission on forests.     

Towards Participatory Geographic Information Systems for community-based environmental decision making

This article discusses the potential of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to become an information technology enabling groups of people to participate in decisions shaping their communities and promoting sustainable use of natural resources. It explains the concept of participation in the context of planning and decision making. In this context Participatory GIS (PGIS) offers tools that can be used to help the public become meaningfully involved in decision making processes affecting their communities. Following an overview of research on PGIS and its current status the article presents two recent studies of PGIS in water resource planning; one involving the use of computer generated maps representing simple information structures and the other involving the use of more sophisticated information tools. The synthesis of both studies provides the bases for discussing the prospects of PGIS to empower citizens in making decisions about their communities and resources.     

Comparative assessment of essential and heavy metals in fruits from different geographical origins

The aim of this investigation was to estimate and compare essential and heavy metals contents in 98 commercially available fresh fruits from different geographic regions using multivariate techniques. The concentrations of 12 elements (calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium, phophorus, cobalt (Co), manganese, iron, chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), zinc and copper) were determined using flame atomic absorption spectrometry with deuterium-background correction. Phosphorus was determined in the form of phosphomolybdate by a spectrophotometric method. Reliability of the procedure was checked by analysis of the certified reference materials tea (NCS DC 73351), cabbage (IAEA-359) and spinach leaves (NIST-1570). Recoveries of the elements analysed varied between 85.5 and 103 %, and precisions for the reference materials were 0.13–6.08 %. Based on recommended dietary allowance and adequate intake estimated for essential elements, it was concluded that accessory fruits such as pineapples, raspberries and strawberries supply organism with the highest amounts of bioelements. Although accessory fruits were also found to be the greatest source of Ni among all the analysed fruits, in all the fruits Ni was more abundant than Cr and Co. Significant correlation coefficients (p?<?0.001, p?<?0.01 and p?<?0.05) were found between concentrations of some metals in fresh fruits. Application of ANOVA Kruskal–Wallis test and multivariate techniques such as factor analysis and cluster analysis enabled us to differentiate particular botanical families and types of fruits.     

Biomagnification of mercury in trophic relation of Great Cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) and fish in the Vistula Lagoon, Poland

Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were determined by CV-AAS in selected tissues (liver, kidney, and muscle) of the Great Cormorant and some fish species (herring, ruffe, European smelt, tench, roach, Crucian carp, and Prussian carp) from the Vistula Lagoon ecosystem (Poland). Significant correlations between Hg concentrations in the kidneys and muscle of cormorants (U test, p?<?0.05) were found; levels of the metal were highest in the birds?? liver and kidneys. Total Hg concentrations in the fish decreased in the following order: roach > Prussian carp > Crucian carp > tench > European smelt > ruffe > herring. The biomagnification factor of Hg for the cormorant relative to the fish decreased in the following sequence: herring > ruffe > European smelt > tench > Crucian carp > roach = Prussian carp. It was significantly greater than unity, especially for the cormorant?Cherring trophic relationship. This implies that Hg is biomagnified in the cormorant in relation to its prey.     

Vehicle Hydrocarbons’ Emission Characteristics Determined Using the Monte Carlo Method

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - Hydrocarbons (HCs) are products of incomplete combustion process which can occur during operation of the internal combustion engines (Flagan and Seinfeld...