Modelling of occupational respirable crystalline silica exposure for quantitative exposure assessment in community-based case-control studies

We describe an empirical model for exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) to create a quantitative job-exposure matrix (JEM) for community-based studies. Personal measurements of exposure to RCS from Europe and Canada were obtained for exposure modelling. A mixed-effects model was elaborated, with region/country and job titles as random effect terms. The fixed effect terms included year of measurement, measurement strategy (representative or worst-case), sampling duration (minutes) and a priori exposure intensity rating for each job from an independently developed JEM (none, low, high). 23,640 personal RCS exposure measurements, covering a time period from 1976 to 2009, were available for modelling. The model indicated an overall downward time trend in RCS exposure levels of -6% per year. Exposure levels were higher in the UK and Canada, and lower in Northern Europe and Germany. Worst-case sampling was associated with higher reported exposure levels and an increase in sampling duration was associated with lower reported exposure levels. Highest predicted RCS exposure levels in the reference year (1998) were for chimney bricklayers (geometric mean 0.11 mg m(-3)), monument carvers and other stone cutters and carvers (0.10 mg m(-3)). The resulting model enables us to predict time-, job-, and region/country-specific exposure levels of RCS. These predictions will be used in the SYNERGY study, an ongoing pooled multinational community-based case-control study on lung cancer.     

Tracking collaboration: forest planning and local participation on the San Juan National Forest,Colorado

The proliferation of community-based collaborative approaches to public land management and planning has spawned many questions regarding issues of community representation and the effects of participation for local residents. This paper presents a longitudinal assessment of local resident participation in collaborative forest planning on local community–forest relations in southwestern Colorado. Using survey data of participants involved in the San Juan National Forest's forest plan revision community study groups from 1998 to 2003, we assess participation in terms of community representation and the effects of community-based collaboration upon individuals' forest uses, forest values, and the level and form of involvement in forest management and planning activities. Results show that community representation remains slanted towards existing active stakeholders, and that while forest values, uses, and frequencies of involvement change little, participants cite positive effects in terms of the development of new knowledge, personal relationships, and greater confidence to engage in forest management affairs.     

Short-sighted evolution of virulence in parasitic honeybee workers (Apis mellifera capensis Esch.)

The short-sighted selection hypothesis for parasite virulence predicts that winners of within-host competition are poorer at transmission to new hosts. Social parasitism by self-replicating, female-producing workers occurs in the Cape honeybee Apis mellifera capensis, and colonies of other honeybee subspecies are susceptible hosts. We found high within-host virulence but low transmission rates in a clone of social parasitic A. m. capensis workers invading the neighbouring subspecies A. m. scutellata. In contrast, parasitic workers from the endemic range of A. m. capensis showed low within-host virulence but high transmission rates. This suggests a short-sighted selection scenario for the host-parasite co-evolution in the invasive range of the Cape honeybee, probably facilitated by beekeeping-assisted parasite transmission in apiaries.     

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.     

Effects of Management Legacies on Stream Fish and Aquatic Benthic Macroinvertebrate Assemblages

Fish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages often provide insight on ecological conditions for guiding management actions. Unfortunately, land use and management legacies can constrain the structure of biotic communities such that they fail to reflect habitat quality. The purpose of this study was to describe patterns in fish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage structure, and evaluate relationships between biota and habitat characteristics in the Chariton River system of south-central Iowa, a system likely influenced by various potential management legacies (e.g., dams, chemical removal of fishes). We sampled fishes, benthic macroinvertebrates, and physical habitat from a total of 38 stream reaches in the Chariton River watershed during 2002–2005. Fish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages were dominated by generalist species tolerant of poor habitat quality; assemblages failed to show any apparent patterns with regard to stream size or longitudinal location within the watershed. Metrics used to summarize fish assemblages and populations [e.g., presence–absence, relative abundance, Index of Biotic Integrity for fish (IBI_F)] were not related to habitat characteristics, except that catch rates of piscivores were positively related to the depth and the amount of large wood. In contrast, family richness of benthic macroinvertebrates, richness of Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera, and Plecoptera taxa, and IBI values for benthic macroinvertebrates (IBI_BM) were positively correlated with the amount of overhanging vegetation and inversely related to the percentage of fine substrate. A long history of habitat alteration by row-crop agriculture and management legacies associated with reservoir construction has likely resulted in a fish assemblage dominated by tolerant species. Intolerant and sensitive fish species have not recolonized streams due to downstream movement barriers (i.e., dams). In contrast, aquatic insect assemblages reflected aquatic habitat, particularly the amount of overhanging vegetation and fine sediment. This research illustrates the importance of using multiple taxa for biological assessments and the need to consider management legacies when investigating responses to management and conservation actions.     

Spatial and temporal variability modify density dependence in populations of large herbivores

A central challenge in ecology is to understand the interplay of internal and external controls on the growth of populations. We examined the effects of temporal variation in weather and spatial variation in vegetation on the strength of density dependence in populations of large herbivores. We fit three subsets of the model ln(Nt) = a + (1 + b) x ln(N(t-1)) + c x ln(N(t-2)) to five time series of estimates (Nt) of abundance of ungulates in the Rocky Mountains, USA. The strength of density dependence was estimated by the magnitude of the coefficient b. We regressed the estimates of b on indices of temporal heterogeneity in weather and spatial heterogeneity in resources. The 95% posterior intervals of the slopes of these regressions showed that temporal heterogeneity strengthened density-dependent feedbacks to population growth, whereas spatial heterogeneity weakened them. This finding offers the first empirical evidence that density dependence responds in different ways to spatial heterogeneity and temporal heterogeneity.     

The role of personality characteristics in young adult driving

BACKGROUND: Motor vehicle injury is the major cause of mortality among young adults. Information about the individual characteristics of those who drive dangerously could enhance traffic safety programs. The goal of this research was to examine the association between various personality-related characteristics and risky driving behaviors. METHODS: Young adults in Michigan, USA (n = 5,362) were surveyed by telephone regarding several personality factors (risk-taking, hostility, aggression, tolerance of deviance, achievement expectations) and driving behaviors (competitive driving, risk-taking driving, high-risk driving, aggressive driving, and drink/driving). Michigan driver records were obtained to examine offenses, serious offenses, driving offense points, crashes and serious crashes in the three pre-interview years. Multivariate regression analyses, adjusting for age, race, and marital status were conducted separately by sex to identify personality factors related to driving. RESULTS: For men and women, greater risk-taking propensity, physical/verbal hostility, aggression, and tolerance of deviance were significant predictors of a competitive attitude toward driving, risk-taking driving, high-risk driving, driving aggression, and drink/driving. Greater risk-taking propensity, physical/verbal hostility, aggression, and to a small degree, expectations for achievement predicted higher numbers of offenses, serious offenses, and points. CONCLUSION: Traffic safety policies and programs could be enhanced through recognition of the role personality factors play in driving behavior and the incorporation of this knowledge into the design and implementation of interventions that modify the behaviors associated with them.